From 250/1 to PGA champion: Behind the odds of Justin Thomas’ seven-stroke comeback

Newly crowned PGA Championship winner Justin Thomas sat eight strokes out of the lead and +25000 (250 to 1) with BetMGM Sportsbook with 10 holes to play at Southern Hills before becoming the centerpiece of one of the greatest comebacks in major championship golf. After two ultra-impressive 3-under 67s to open the tournament on the tough side of the draw, Thomas stumbled in Saturday’s third round with a 74, leaving him seven strokes back of the lead with 18 holes to play. He fell eight behind after some early errors including a stone-cold shank on the par-3 sixth hole that led to a bogey, not the type of shot typically seen from a major champion. Thomas opened as a +1200 chance with BetMGM but was +3300 to start the final round after dropping into a tie for seventh. “Someone told me he was 15 to 1 before today, which is crazy. I would have taken the other side of that,” Thomas’ father Mike laughed after the odds-defying victory. “There were just too many people in front of him; he was 12th on the leaderboard at one point, but he’s got a lot of guts and he’s got a lot of heart, and he had a good putting week to make things up.” Indeed, Thomas was second in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting (+6.314) and also ranked inside the top 16 in the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (+2.638), Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (+8.000) and Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (+3.257). We’ve gone behind the numbers and tracked Thomas’ live odds from last Sunday’s final round to see just how miraculous the result turned out to be for the man who now owns a FedExCup, a PLAYERS Championship and two majors. ODDS TIMELINE – Justin Thomas to win PGA Championship (via BetMGM) +3300 – Overnight odds have Thomas at 33 to 1, sitting seven shots back of leader Mito Pereira, before he gets underway on Sunday. +4000 – After opening with two pars, Thomas finds himself short of the green in two on the par-4 third hole. His chip comes up 10 feet short of the hole. +6600 – Thomas misses his 10-foot par putt on the third hole, dropping to 1-under for the tournament, eight shots off the lead. +12500 – Coming off a birdie at the fifth hole and with 5-iron in hand on the par-3 sixth tee, Thomas catches the ball on the hosel, sending a wicked shank out to the right side. While by some miracle he misses a creek, he is still 120 yards from the hole. +15000 – As if the shank wasn’t embarrassment enough, Thomas hits his second shot into a tree and it rebounds into a bunker from the wrong hole, still 100 yards from the pin. He ends up making a great bogey to go back to 1-under. +25000 – Despite a great shot into the par-4 seventh with the same 5-iron he shanked moments earlier, Thomas misses birdie and gets through the par-3 eighth still eight shots off the lead and now running out of holes. +10000 – A lovely approach shot to the par-4 ninth hole, leaving just under 12 feet for birdie, has put some belief back into the bettors. +8000 – Thomas makes his birdie on the ninth hole, sitting seven shots back as he makes the turn. +6600 – A very accurate tee shot down the 10th hole brings with it more faith at BetMGM. +5000 – An even better approach shot to 11 feet on the 10th allows some folks to start dreaming. +6600 – When the birdie try on 10 goes by, there is a sense that so too may have Thomas’ chances at Southern Hills. +2500 – An incredible 64-foot, 7-inch birdie drops for Thomas on the par-3 11th, slashing his odds all the way back to 25 to 1 as the leaders start to stumble. Thomas is now just five back. +2200 – The odds tighten for Thomas a little more at Pereira bogeys the eighth and he sits just four off the pace. +2000 – Pereira’s drive down the ninth hole is bleeding into trouble. Thomas comes in again. +900 – Is this really happening? The 2017 FedExCup champion drains another birdie on the 12th hole and suddenly is headed to a par-5 within just three shots of the lead. +850 – Pereira’s approach on the ninth finds a bunker. +1100 – Pereira makes a great par save on the ninth hole, sending Thomas’ odds drifting again. +900 – The roller coaster begins again as Pereira gets unlucky to miss the 10th green in regulation. +1000 – Pereira hits an incredible chip shot to help secure a par on the par-4 10th. +1200 – Thomas lays up on the par-5 13th. +1100 – Thomas hits a decent wedge to create another chance at birdie. +1000 – One of the challengers, Matt Fitzpatrick, bogeys the 10th, while another in Will Zalatoris has left himself a 16-foot par putt on the 12th hole. +1600 – Thomas misses his chance at birdie on the par-5, and the sportsbooks think that might be costly. +2000 – Thomas sends his tee shot on the par-4 14th into a bunker. +2200 – Pereira secures par on the 11th with a nice two-putt from long distance. +1600 – Pereira’s drive on the 12th ends up in a horrible spot, forcing a chip out back to the fairway. +1400 – Thomas gets up and down for par from the sand on 14. +1600 – Pereira is still in trouble on 12, and has left just under 8 feet for his par. +1100 – Pereira’s par putt won’t drop. His gap over Thomas is now just two shots. +700 – Thomas hits a beautiful approach into the 15th, leaving just 8 feet for birdie. +1000 – As many have done before him Sunday, Thomas misreads the putt on 15 and settles for par. +2000 – Pereira hits a brilliant second shot into the par-5 13th, setting up an 18-foot eagle attempt. +2500 – Thomas loses his tee shot on the 16th hole to the right. +3300 – Pereira misses his eagle but taps in for birdie on 13, while Thomas hits his approach to 16 into a greenside bunker. He trails by three again. +2000 – Pereira sends his tee shot to the par-3 14th long and left. +1400 – Thomas almost holes his long bunker shot on 16. +1200 – Pereira fails to get up and down and bogeys the 14th, leaving Thomas two behind with two to play. +1100 – Zalatoris misses his birdie attempt on 15 from close range. +900 – Thomas sends his tee shot on the drivable par-4 17th into a greenside bunker. +1600 – Pereira rebounds from his bogey with a laser approach inside 10 feet on 15. +1100 – Pereira, like Thomas before him, misreads the putt on 15 and fails to convert his birdie. +800 – Thomas secures a birdie at 17. He’s just one back of the lead. +700 – After a debate with his caddie Jim “Bones” Mackay, Thomas pulls driver out of his bag. +500 – Thomas hits a near perfect drive down the last hole. +300 – Pereira comes up short on his approach to 16. +200 – Pereira’s third shot into the 16th leaves him with a tricky 11-footer to save par. +150 – Thomas takes dead aim on approach at the 72nd hole and flies it next to the pin. It rolls out, leaving just under 11 feet to post another birdie and join the lead. +225 – Pereira makes a clutch par putt at 16 to maintain his one-shot lead. +350 – With seemingly it all on the line, Thomas fails to nudge the birdie home on the 18th and now must wait after a beautiful 3-under 67 leaves him in the clubhouse lead at 5-under. +600 – Zalatoris birdies the 17th. +500 – Fitzpatrick finds the creek off the tee on 17 and Pereira’s drive doesn’t reach the putting surface. +350 – Pereira hits a great putt for his birdie on the 17th but it stops a revolution short of the hole. He settles for par and a one-shot lead heading to the last hole. -154 – Pereira produces a wild tee shot that slices hard right and finds its way into the water. +110 – Zalatoris makes a clutch up-and-down from in front of the 18th green to join Thomas in the clubhouse at 5-under. -125 – After hitting his third shot long and left of the green, Pereira faces a tricky up-and-down to join a playoff. His chip shot trickles off the front of the green and he’s unable to hole out from there. -137 – The double bogey from Pereira leaves Thomas fighting Zalatoris over a three-hole aggregate playoff. Thomas is the favorite before they begin. +120 – Starting on the par-5 13th, Thomas sends his drive into the rough while Zalatoris is in the fairway. -118 – Thomas hits a lovely wedge inside 10 feet after a forced lay-up, leaving him with a very likely birdie. He secures the birdie, but so too does Zalatoris. -200 – Thomas hits perhaps one of the shots of the week by driving the second playoff hole (the par-4 17th). -303 – Zalatoris can’t match Thomas and is short of the putting surface. -222 – Zalatoris chips up to close range, leaving him a chance to match Thomas with birdies after Thomas misses his eagle attempt. -500 – Zalatoris watches his birdie try from inside 10 feet slide by, leaving Thomas a shot ahead with one to play. -1000 – Thomas pumps his drive perfectly down the final hole. -2500 – Zalatoris hits a decent drive but doesn’t match Thomas for distance or optimal angle. His approach finds the green but sucks back and sits against the fringe, some 45 feet away. -10000 – Thomas sends his 9-iron approach to 25 feet, from where he two-putts to win his second PGA Championship.

Click here to read the full article…