Win probabilities: TOUR Championship

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SILVIS, Illinois. – According to Zach Johnson – you’ve just got to “bow upâ€� and “get after itâ€�. With just six weeks left in the FedExCup regular season, the time is now to lock up your spot in the Playoffs. While the big-name winners like Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama have long-booked their place in the top 125 and the post season, there are plenty of players on the outside looking in. And at the John Deere Classic, the sense of opportunity is well and truly in the air. With a large chunk of players inside the Playoff zone either out of action or playing on the European Tour this week in the lead up to the Open Championship, the 500 FedExCup points for the winner at TPC Deere Run represent a clear chance to change the trajectory of your season. For some of the guys on the bubble, it might not take a win, it might just take a half-decent result. As such, there is a mixture of optimism and anxiety on the range in Silvis. “Making the FedExCup Playoffs means everything,â€� Smylie Kaufman, who sits in 134th on the points list, says. “Not making the 125 for me – that’s inexcusable. It’s something I need to do.â€� A winner in the fall of 2015, his rookie season, Kaufman did not have to worry about making the Playoffs at this stage last year. But with just one top-10 finish on his resume this season he knows time is running out to make his move. He is still burning about not making it to East Lake last year, falling to 43rd when he was unable to get things going in the Playoffs. “All it takes is one week in the Playoffs. I was the guy last year who was in the top 30 all year and felt like I had a great year, but the guy who was second or third in a playoff event can go right past you and that happened to me,â€� Kaufman adds. “So I learned the hard way last year not making the TOUR Championship sucked. “I think I am the type of player that can get hot at that time of year and then who knows. If I can just get there a lot of pressure would be taken off. My card is not on the line but I want to treat it that way because there will be times in my career it is going to be on the line. “So, I just want to learn from the experiences and see how I handle the pressure.â€� The pressure is certainly different for different individuals. Kaufman has another year of exemption up his sleeve. Guys like Johnson Wagner, who sits 127th, have past champion status to fall back on. He’s won three times before. Others, like last week’s surprise contender Sebastian Munoz, have nothing to fall back on. If you finish between 126-150, you also get conditional status and several starts next season guaranteed. “I’ve won and played well out of that category before although it’s not ideal,â€� Wagner says. “There is a big difference between 150 and 151 and obviously 200 and 201 also. But you can’t put too much pressure on yourself, you’ve just got to get out there and play. “I have been in this position many times and I have definitely overreacted and panicked before. But there is nothing good that comes from that.â€� If you are inside the top 200, you get a trip to the Web.com Finals for another chance at TOUR status. Munoz entered the Greenbrier Classic in 198th. He’s now 140th. “I needed to make a move, and it is great I’ve done that,â€� Munoz said. “But now I am in range of the Playoffs, and I need to bring it home in these next events.â€� It is a move others like Brett Drewitt are hoping to make this week. The Australian Tour rookie sits at 196th and knows just one decent week will allow him the chance to do what he did last year, and get through Web.com Tour Finals. A massive week could have him bypass that altogether. “The trick is to try not to think about it, which is easier said than done,â€� Drewitt says. “But if you do think about it you have to embrace it as an opportunity. That’s what I am trying to do.â€� It is a mindset Johnson, who as a dual major winner and has been in the Playoffs every year since their inception, believes can help. He sits 103rd in the FedExCup, not great, but almost certainly enough to make it once more. “I like the mentality of having my back against the wall. I thrive in that position,â€� Johnson says. “So if they are in that sort of position, you know what, bow up. It’s time to get after it. “It’s one of those situations where the more pressure you put on yourself probably the worse it is. If you just kind of try to simplify it and take it for what it is, it’s an opportunity.â€� For context, just six players played their way into the top 125 with six weeks to go last year, and two of those were past major winners. Jerry Kelly, Jim Furyk, Robert Garrigus, Keegan Bradley, Blayne Barber and Shawn Stefani were the guys to step up in the run home and claim a spot with Stefani coming from the furthest back at 143rd. The unlucky six last year who fell back were Scott Stallings, Nick Taylor, Bronson Burgoon, Tim Wilkinson, Chad Collins and Willy Wilcox. Who will be the most likely to jump in this season … you’ll have to watch to find out!

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Nine people died in a fiery, head-on truck-van collision, including six college golfers and their coach. Fellow classmates say they aren’t sure how they will cope once the condolences fade and the memorials disperse.

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