Come on, USGA: Give us Brooks-Bryson at the U.S. Open!

DETROIT – Absorbed in its entirety, Cameron Champ’s round of 7-under 65 Friday morning would provide ample explanation for his 36-hole lead at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. But upon further review, you could look at the torrid 8-under 28 going out on Detroit Golf Club’s front nine, then measure it against the inward 1-over 37 and wonder, why such a stark contrast in performance? Champ could, in turn, smile, and suggest you widen the lens if you want to really study the roller-coaster of this, his rookie season. To wit: In his first seven tournaments there was a win, four other top-15 finishes, and 592 FedExCup points, but since the Farmers Insurance Open in late January, Champ has missed eight cuts, withdrawn once, had a best finish of T-28, and earned a mere 39 FEC points. All of which – the 28-37 in Round 2, the fact that he went four months on the PGA TOUR without breaking 70 with Thursday’s opening 66, and a return to contention after months of early exits – he is most happy to explain. “You know, I’m still young,� said Champ, who signed his card and headed home at 13-under 131, at the time two better than Ryan Armour (69) with the entire afternoon wave on the golf course. “I just turned 24, so I had a lot coming at me and distractions. I had to just really adjust and prioritize.� As explosive as Champ’s power is, it is another commodity he possesses that likely will maintain the much-needed balance in his game. “He’s a good kid, a gentle soul,� said Jeff Camp, Cameron’s father, who walked Friday’s round as his son put up back-to-back scores in the 60s for the first time since the Sony Open in Hawaii, way back in January. “He knows he has to just grind.� On his first nine Friday, though, it was not a grind. It was Champ at his very best, flashing the sort of incomparable power that would make you wonder how anyone can beat him. He hit six of seven fairways, reached both par-5s in two, was on in regulation at all nine greens, and required but 12 putts. For a sampling of the unmatched power Champ can unleash, consider the par-5 seventh, set up at 545 yards. J.B. Holmes, hardly a singles hitter, was dead center, out there a robust 327 yards. Yet, Champ was 38 yards beyond him, and provided with the opportunity to hit just a 177-yard second shot to 8 feet. He made that eagle, which coming on the heels of five birdies in a row went a long reason in explaining the sprint to the turn in 28. “One of those nines, kind of everything went my way,� said Champ, who also drove it 368 yards at the 635-yard, par-5 fourth and reached in two to set up a two-putt birdie. True enough, that, because a ticklish 15-footer straight downhill at the par-4 wasn’t one he expected to make but did. And at the par-3 ninth, his 20-footer found the hole, too. But Cameron Champ lets those words of his greatest mentor in life – his grandfather, Mack Champ – constantly echo in his head. “It’s not where you start that matters, it is where you finish.� So, the six birdies and one eagle on his first nine didn’t matter; it was the bogey on the par-4 13th and the bogey at the par-4 18th that offset the only inward birdie, at the par-5 17th, that Cameron Champ digested after his round and will use as motivation for Saturday’s third round. It’s not dissimilar to how he maintained composure these past few months. “Just embracing failure,� he said. In other words, he has put the early-season success behind him and learned much from that stretch where he failed to play on the weekend of six straight tournaments. “I think it has, personally,� said Champ, when asked if the rough stretch was in some ways better for his career than the win at Sanderson Farms last October and the string of high finishes that stopped at the Sony. “At times, I can definitely be tough on myself. But I’m learning, especially the last month-and-a-half (has been good for me). It’s sent me back to the drawing board and to think back to how I play good golf, how I think around the course.�

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Thursday Night Stat Report It was a difficult day for scoring in the opening round at the Valero Texas Open, with only 4 holes playing under par on the day. Here is a graphic detailing hole-by-hole scoring from Thursday’s round: Currently, there are 86 players at 1 over par or better (T64th position). Our model is projecting Friday’s cutline as follows (as usual, assuming that the course plays to a scoring average similar to Thursday’s): 2 over par: 74.2 percent 3 over par: 24.8 percent 1 over par: 1.0 percent This week’s field at the Valero Texas Open is as big as they come on the PGA TOUR (156 players) and, due to a relative lack of starpower, one of the more evenly-matched fields as well. As a consequence, our model’s highest cut projection at the start of the tournament was just 74 percent, belonging to Matt Kuchar (in a typical week, the highest cut projection will usually be 80 to 90 percent). After shooting 1 under par today, Kuchar’s cut probability now sits at 91 percent. One of the biggest movers on the day was Grayson Murray, whose probability of making the cut rose from 54 percent at the start of Thursday to 99 percent, thanks to his 5 under par round of 67. This implies that the model is giving Murray about a 1 percent chance of shooting 7 over par or worse tomorrow, given how the cutline is being projected above (nobody tell Grayson!). Some other notable cut probabilities heading into Friday’s round are Kevin Chappell (Even par; 80 percent), Brendan Steele (2 under par; 95 percent), Adam Scott (3 over par; 43 percent), and Sergio Garcia (2 over par; 59 percent). NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Valero Texas Open, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.  

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