Sleeper Picks: AT&T Byron Nelson

We got ourselves a baller in the house. PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live is just four weeks old, but Rob already has hung up a pair of top 10s. After finishing third of about 5,700 entries at The Honda Classic, he wrangled a 10th among a little over 7,000 at THE PLAYERS Championship. Yeah, only the top five pay, but it’s a good thing – for you, wink wink – that he’s ineligible for prize money. As Rob himself declared at the outset, it’s always easier to win when a new game is launched. Not only is there a learning curve en masse, but traditionally there are fewer people against whom to compete until momentum builds. The expectation – and the plan, naturally – is for PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live to grow, but only the top five cash no matter how many are entered. In this week’s Draws and Fades, Rob walks you through his process that led to his performance at THE PLAYERS. It includes an accidental discovery of the difference in the timing of when the odds are updated on the interface (where the game is hosted) and PointsBet’s app. Capitalize on it. The Valspar Championship has us settling into what is a more familiar construct of a field. It’s more difficult to uncover the gems, but that’s why Glass and Rob collaborate for this weekly file in addition to their regular contributions across the FANTASY page. Register for PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live here and monitor their progress as Influencers; however, given Rob’s early success, you likely wouldn’t have to scroll or swipe for long to find him on the main leaderboard. For a broader explanation of the format and FAQs, click here. WEEKLONG Outright Rob … Denny McCarthy (+8000) Gosh, it feels good to have the honor again. Even better, with every passing week, I’m feeling the rhythm of the game. There’s no reason not to let a reach ride for a while. Remain patient and let the play develop. I omitted deeper analysis on McCarthy in my preview material, but not because he doesn’t make sense. There are just some guys who get overcovered for stretches for various reasons, so when the opportunity to expand the lens is presented, I take advantage. He’s among the most accurate off the tee and his putting takes the pressure off his mediocre irons. So, in a field with considerable strength at the top, but in a tournament with established competitive balance, I prefer the strong position of opening with a non-winner who has a decently balanced bag and a little mojo. Glass … Russell Knox (+6000) The Jacksonville resident battled through four rounds at par or better in his backyard at TPC Sawgrass before picking up his second top 10 (T6) of 2022. Rolling into Innisbrook on three consecutive T24-or-better finishes on the track, his three best from eight previous trips, suggests he has the digits to crack the code. The Florida grass and weather shouldn’t bother him and neither will be flying under the radar. I’m moving against a massive winner’s trend of succeeding early at this event but his play has been more than steady with five consecutive paydays, including a T7 at Sony on a demanding driving golf course at Waialae. Top 10 Glass … Alex Smalley (+1100) After seeing my dude peg Kisner at +1400 for a top 10 last week, I’m inspired to catch one of my own BIG FISH. Smalley didn’t have to fight the conditions for FIVE days last week and has been churning out results in 2022. Making the cut at Genesis, Honda and Arnold Palmer suggests he’s not intimidated by big ball-striking tracks. He’s in the top 75 of distance, fairways and greens in regulation, all of which plays this week. Let’s ride! Rob … Bubba Watson (+525) Glass is right about one thing, I am a dude who nailed Kisner last week – I also love his approach for Smalley – but I was grateful that the Top 10 bets never unlocked during THE PLAYERS, at least when I was paying attention, which was quite a bit. After a second-round 74, Kisner sat T22, so I may have been persuaded to modify the selection. We’ll never know, it doesn’t matter and I don’t care! Unlike THE PLAYERS where the depth of the field begets strong value deep in the ranks, the Valspar Championship encourages a conservative choice to benefit from a smaller sample size worthy of it. Watson is No. 8 in my Power Rankings. His firepower alone tempers his odds, but that value is strong considering he’s finished a respective T4 and T13 in the last two editions of the tournament. He also was the victim of Harold Varner III’s crazy-long birdie conversion at the buzzer of the Saudi Invite in early February. The home-state vibes and chill atmosphere at Copperhead are bonuses. Top 20 Rob … Vaughn Taylor (+700) As long as this unlocks, I’m going to swing for the fence before the tournament starts, but even if it doesn’t, the strategy of not making contact doesn’t cost as much as a more aggressive decision elsewhere. Consider that the longest odds on the board for a Top 20 are just +1700. Solid, but not necessarily game-changing when all you care about is a top-five finish. Taylor checks the boxes for converging trends, and that’s good enough for me. He finished T18 (2019) and T6 (2021) in the last two editions of the tournament, and he went for a T7 in his last start in Puerto Rico. That top 10 got him into the field this week. He’s one of my Sleepers. Glass … Mito Pereira (+400) Hitting it great here is paramount unless you scramble like Jordan Spieth or Patrick Reed, so I’ll run out fresh blood again with Pereira. His numbers off the tee and into greens stick out for me, and so does his T15 at Genesis (first time) and Honda (T30). I’ll toss in a T25 at Torrey Pines just to reinforce his strength tee to green. There’s no faking it at Riviera or Torrey Pines, so I’ll roll the dice. ROUND 1 Leader Rob … Patton Kizzire (+10000) When I joined Glass on his radio show on the Thursday afternoon of THE PLAYERS, I told him that he knew that I wasn’t going to let him bask for long after he had connected with Rory McIlroy as the R1 leader at Bay Hill the previous week. Tommy Fleetwood answered at TPC Sawgrass, and at four times the kickback. Boom. Quite simply, the strategy paid off. While Fleetwood was in the more fortunate wave, the plan all along was to toss out a guy who went out early. What’s more, and coincidentally, he had been a R1 leader at THE PLAYERS before. As I also explained and promised last week, my strategy henceforth will be to grab a guy in the early wave and remain fluid throughout the day. At Copperhead, I want my choice to navigate The Snake Pit mid-round and not at the end. Holes 16, 17 and 18 always average over par, but the par-5 first hole is one of the easiest on the entire PGA TOUR. Therefore, I want him to pounce on it not only after The Snake Pit but once he’s warm, so in addition to focusing only on the early wavers, I care only about guys starting on No. 10. Kizzire goes off 10 at 8:46 a.m. ET. He’s seventh on TOUR in first-round scoring average (68.15) and tops among the commitments. He’s opened 12 of his 13 starts this season with red numbers. His lowest score among 14 rounds at Copperhead is a 5-under 66 in the opening round of the tournament last year. Glass … Keegan Bradley (+5000) I rode the roller coaster of self-inflicted wounds last week with the big-boy ball-striker at TPC Sawgrass. My pre-tournament OUTRIGHT WINNER (at +8000) found himself one shot off the lead on the back nine, but I had already abandoned ship. I’M WEAK, I KNOW. A fantastic round turned to dust late on MONDAY but his form was never in question. Rob’s man-crush – well, ONE of them – opened here last year with 65, tied the 36-hole record and played from the final group on Sunday. There are many, many worse plays than this on the board this week! 3-Ball Glass … Joel Dahmen (ENTER ODDS HERE) over Andrew Landry and Michael Thompson First-round leader on debut here in 2019 takes on Landry (5 consecutive MC) and Thompson (4 consecutive MC before T60 last week). Dahmen’s T33 extends a run of four straight on TOUR, so I’ll ride the hottest hand of the trio. Rob … David Lipsky (+194) over Sahith Theegala and Bernd Wiesberger Remember, the reward outweighs failure when it comes to a single round, and because we’re credited with coins valued at just one-quarter the odds, go heavy on the risk. A winning bet at +100 yields 25 coins. Double the odds and you bank just 50 coins. In your pursuit of the top five for prize money, the difference is negligible if you lose. But because it’s golf, the law of averages is going to pay you more often than you think it will. I went heavy in all nine of my 3-balls at THE PLAYERS. Four came through for a value of 745 coins, and I was shut out in the finale (out of a possible 655 coins), but that haul represented just shy of only 18 percent of my overall, and I finished 509 coins outside the top five in a week when only two of the top 10 were paid by Cameron Smith’s opening outright line of +3300. (For more detail, jump to my Draws and Fades linked at the top.) So, I’m keeping it simple and leaning on a worldly veteran in Lipsky whose ball-striking is more encouraging than the feel game of his younger fellow rookie, Theegala, and the underachieving Wiesberger, who has only two top 10s in 65 PGA TOUR starts across 10 seasons. Make the Cut Glass … Russell Knox (-225) For reasons stated above, this makes sense. His game thrives tee to green and that’s what is required this week. When in doubt, I prefer riding the heat. Rob … Alex Noren (-200) Kevin Kisner (-180) is the only option with longer odds, but the street loves the Swede, so I might as well hop on the bandwagon. Noren finished T21 in his only appearance here last year. He’s also missed only two cuts in his last 12 starts in tournaments worldwide with a cut. He’s cashed in five straight upon arrival, two of which for a top 10.

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During a practice round ahead of this week’s Sony Open in Hawaii, PGA TOUR Champions pro Jim Furyk was addressed by playing partner Brent Grant with the deferential ‘sir’ formality. Grant, 25, then asked Furyk, 51, what he liked most about his early career on the 50-and-older circuit. “No one calls me ‘sir,’” Furyk replied. Grant was born in March 1996, a month after Furyk’s first Sony Open victory, carding 11-under total and besting Brad Faxon in a playoff for his second PGA TOUR title. Furyk, now a 17-time TOUR winner in addition to three PGA TOUR Champions victories, has intentions of adding a second Sony Open title to his collection. The Pennsylvania native, inspired by his beloved Pittsburgh Steelers’ late-season push to a playoff berth, carded an opening-round, 8-under 62 at Waialae CC – including a hole-in-one at the par-3 17th hole. Furyk becomes the oldest player to shoot 62 or better on TOUR since 1983, doing so with a torrid 5-under stretch on his final five holes – including a par at the par-5 18th. Playing on a sponsor’s exemption as the first leg of an Aloha Double – en route to next week’s PGA TOUR Champions season-opening Mitsubishi Electric Championship at Hualalai – Furyk proved early that he’s looking to do more than solely fill a spot in the field. “I love (the) Sony (Open) … it’s a place I’ve had a lot of success,” said Furyk after signing for his eighth round of 62 or better on TOUR. “I’m not hitting the ball far enough to compete out here on a regular basis on a lot of the golf courses, but Waialae is a place I still feel I can get around and shoot under par pretty well, and so it’s fun. “Places I’ve won, Valspar, Heritage, those are courses I can still compete on. Once in a while, I’ll dip out here, but I’ll predominantly play on PGA TOUR Champions.” When he does dip back out onto the PGA TOUR though, Furyk strategically picks his spots to maximize his opportunity to make an impact. Venerable Waialae CC appears the perfect venue – Furyk has recorded 10 top-25s in 17 Sony Open appearances, including his 1996 victory and a 1997 runner-up. The Sony Open demands a precision game. Tree-lined, par-70 Waialae CC plays to just 7,044 yards and requires players to shape the ball both ways, preferring precision to power. Three decades into his professional career, Furyk’s game fits that bill. Averaging 271.9 yards off the tee, Furyk rebounded from an opening bogey to record seven birdies and an eagle, including his sixth career TOUR ace at the 187-yard, par-3 17th. “I thought I was in-between clubs, but (caddie) Fluff assured me it was a 6-iron for me,” Furyk recollected of his decision-making process on No. 17 tee. “It was the right club and I had it teed up a little bit, trying to get the ball in the air and hit down on it. Caught it just a smidge high in the face. “And so I loved the line it was on, but I wasn’t quite sure I caught enough of it to cover it. And carried on the green probably two or three yards and landed in a perfect spot and then released towards the pin. I guess that’s kind of the line I was looking.” Yes, sir!

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Don't call it a West Coast Swing - that'll come around again as usual in January and February - but the PGA TOUR will be spending the next three weeks in the Pacific Time Zone nonetheless. The stretch begins familiarly with the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, a fixture of the fall since 1990. Then, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, two of the three events on the canceled Asian Swing have been shifted temporarily to Nevada (THE CJ CUP @ SHADOW CREEK) and California (ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP @ SHERWOOD). Of the trio, only the Shriners boasts a full field of 144 and includes a cut. The next two are 78-man invitationals with no cut. Scroll past the projected contenders for a breakdown of Kevin Na's improbable formula here last year, how TPC Summerlin sets up and more. RELATED: Inside the Field | Preview the course, storylines POWER RANKINGS: SHRINERS HOSPITALS FOR CHILDREN OPEN Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Francesco Molinari, Sungjae Im and Will Zalatoris will be among the notables reviewed in Tuesday's Fantasy Insider Conventional wisdom and empirical data often collide at TPC Summerlin. As one of the most vulnerable par 71s on the schedule - it was the easiest of 10 par 71s last season and its scoring average of 68.859 was a record low since its debuted in 1992 - the game plan to hit greens and sink putts is as true here as it is anywhere. However, every worthy course makes available the possibility for the winner to have lapped the field with the putter. Kevin Na proved it before outlasting Patrick Cantlay in a playoff a year ago. TPC Summerlin tips at just 7,255 yards and the greens are on the larger size due to winds that often blow in these parts, but when they don't, the tournament develops into a putting contest due to the preponderance of scoring opportunities. Consider that Na averaged 13.5 GIR per round last year (to rank T46), and he was a hair under the field average for the week. Cue the flat stick, Na's primary weapon. En route to 23-under 261, he ranked second in putting: birdies-or-better and led the field in Strokes Gained: Putting, putts per GIR, fewest putts, total distance of putts converted, one-putt percentage and highest conversion percentage from outside 10 feet. Nine of the other 11 who finished inside the top 10 on the leaderboard ranked inside the top 10 in green hit, but only three cracked the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Putting. Scoring conditions will be favorable during the first two rounds this week before a cooling pattern arrives on the weekend. With it, the breezes will intensify from a prevailing direction out of the southwest, and then shift to push in from the north. Daytime highs will tumble from right around 90 degrees on Thursday to about 80 for the finale. No rain will fall. For the third straight year, the primary rough will be limited to two inches. (It previously was three inches.) The bentgrass greens are prepped to run at about 11-and-a-half feet on the Stimpmeter, further favoring aggressive putting. ROB BOLTON'S SCHEDULE PGATOUR.COM's Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton recaps and previews every tournament from numerous angles. Look for his following contributions as scheduled. MONDAY: Qualifiers, Reshuffle, Medical Extensions, Rookie Watch, Power Rankings TUESDAY*: Sleepers, Fantasy Insider * – Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM's Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, which also publishes on Tuesday.

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