5 Things to Know before the Masters begins

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FedExCup Playoff spots go on the line this week at the Wyndham Championship and if you want success at Sedgefield Country Club you better be ready to go low. The ability to make birdies in bunches is critical when you look at the statistical history of the event and this new column, splintered off from Horses For Courses, will focus on the key statistics to success and the players who have them in their locker to compete and win this week The Par-70 of Sedgefield Country Club plays only 7,131 yards and has historically produced a shootout. Let’s take a look at what we know and who is likely to contend. Five Key Statistics Only players listed are competing this week; click stat headline for a full list of players. Rounds in the 60s Last season was the first in SIX YEARS that the tournament scoring record wasn’t tied or under threat with the winner posting 21 or 22 under from 2016-2020 but there’s still no time to figure it out. Even though last year’s winning total was only 15-under, 34 players still managed to post 10-under or lower. The worst total of players posting 10-under or lower is 2017 when the number was just 27. The halcyon days of 2019 saw 47 players hit that mark for the week. Strokes Gained: Approach the Green Defending champion Kevin Kisner (12th) was the first champ since Davis Love III in 2015 (12th) to not finish in the top 10 of this key stat. In fact all winners during this time frame came in fourth or better. I’ll point out that the other five guys in the playoff last year ranked second, third, fifth, 10th and 26th. More rules than exceptions! Par-5 Scoring Not picking on last year’s champ but Kisner is the only winner to not finish in the top 10 in this category. He was T11! The point stands as the Par-5 holes here are some of the easiest on TOUR and must be attacked and taken advantage of over four rounds to push that 20-under magical mark for contention. Putting: Birdie or Better Conversion Percentage Probably should have stuck this right underneath Strokes Gained: Approach the Green! I’m not breaking any news here that the key to contending and winning a shootout is to hit as many GIR as possible and hole as many putts for birdie as allowed. Recent winners all hover in and around the top 12 with the exception of J.T. Poston. He decided to lead the field in GIR so expecting him to hole everything is a bit silly. But he didn’t make a bogey all week so the putter was still pretty effective! Interestingly Keith Mitchell comes up in three of the four traditional stats categories as a leader this season. He is at +5000 with BetMGM to win the tournament, +1000 for a Top 5, +450 for a Top 10 and +200 for a Top 20. Russell Henley and Harold Varner III also find their place highlighted more than once… Henley is +2200 to win while Varner III is +4000. Odds were sourced on Tuesday, Aug. 2, 2022. For live odds, visit BetMGM. The Bubble Boys One statistic not rooted as much in the golf clubs themselves is the trend of players making their way into the FedExCup Playoffs at the expense of others in a last-ditch push. The excitement of watching the points shuffle shot by shot is great for television but not so much for organizing lineups, fantasy and gaming. Since the points structure changed in 2009, an average of over 2.5 players per year have entered the final week of the FedExCup Regular Season outside the top 125 in the FedExCup standings and gone on to qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs. Three players did so last year. This is what we know. What we don’t know is who is or isn’t going to move into the top 125 this season. The last chance saloon applies to all in the field but below are the players on the outside of the FedExCup Playoffs and Eligibility Points List and the minimum finish they need at Wyndham for a chance to move through. Which two / three players would you bank on? If you like Max McGreevy for example, currently one spot outside the mark, you can get +550 from BetMGM for a Top-40 this week. McGreevy enters Wyndham knowing he needs to be inside the top 46 at the bare minimum to have a chance to advance. Others: Top-seven finish: Garrick Higgo, Brice Garnett, Henrik Norlander Top-six finish: Jonathan Byrd Top-five finish: Austin Cook Top-four finish: Charley Hoffman, Ben Martin, Bill Haas, Andrew Landry, Ryan Armour, Satoshi Kodaira Top-three finish: Dylan Wu, Chase Seiffert, Paul Barjon, Cameron Percy, Luke Donald, Sung Kang, Joseph Bramlett, Scott Gutschewski, Seth Reeves, Roger Sloan, William McGirt, Vaughn Taylor, Ben Kohles, Kevin Chappell, Curtis Thompson, Camilo Villegas, Jim Knous Top-two finish: Richy Werenski, Brandon Hagy, Tommy Gainey, Scott Brown, Aaron Baddeley, David Skinns, Harris English, Ryan Moore, Brian Gay, Wesley Bryan, Bo Hoag, David Lingmerth, Robert Garrigus, Jared Wolfe, Dawie van der Walt, Jim Herman, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Bo Van Pelt, Jason Dufner, Joshua Creel, Chris Stroud, Ricky Barnes, Brett Drewitt Win: Davis Love III

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2019 3M Open, End of Round 1. Course scoring averages: Overall: -0.74 strokes per round Morning wave: -0.83 Afternoon wave: -0.64 Current cutline: 70 players at -2 or better (T49th position) Top 3 most likely projected cutlines: 2 under par: 25.8% 3 under par: 24.8% 1 under par: 18.3% Top 10 win probabilities: Hideki Matsuyama (T2, -7, 17.7%) Scott Piercy (1, -9, 16.5%) Brooks Koepka (T18, -4, 6.8%) Adam Hadwin (T2, -7, 6.5%) Bryson DeChambeau (T9, -5, 6.2%) Tony Finau (T9, -5, 4.2%) Sungjae Im (T4, -6, 4.1%) Jason Day (T49, -2, 2.1%) Lucas Glover (T18, -4, 1.9%) Brian Harman (T4, -6, 1.8%) NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the 3M Open, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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