Optimism abounds for golf in 2021

Kevin Na’s win was impressive, if only because of all he has had to overcome to get there. But his week in Las Vegas wasn’t the only thing that mattered in the golf world this week.

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2020 World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship, Round 2 Top 10 win probabilities: Bryson DeChambeau (1, -11, 19.6%) Justin Thomas (T4, -9, 19.2%) Rory McIlroy (6, -8, 18.1%) Hideki Matsuyama (T4, -9, 15.2%) Patrick Reed (T2, -10, 14.0%) Erik Van Rooyen (T2, -10, 7.9%) Paul Casey (T7, -5, 1.0%) Tyrrell Hatton (T7, -5, 0.8%) Tommy Fleetwood (T11, -3, 0.6%) Sebastian Munoz (T7, -5, 0.5%) Top Strokes-Gained Performers from Round 2: Putting: Patrick Reed +5.4 Around the Green: Kevin Na +2.6 Approach the Green: Sebastian Munoz +4.8 Off-the-tee: Scottie Scheffler +2.2 Total: Erik van Rooyen +8.3 NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of The WGC-Mexico Championship, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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ORLANDO – First alternate Johnson Wagner wasn’t sure what the day held for him as he drove to Bay Hill Club & Lodge in the dark Thursday morning. He was in his car when the phone rang. PGA TOUR Rules Official Brad Fabel told him Davis Love III had withdrawn with a sore neck, and Wagner would get his spot if he could make a 7:20 tee time. He not only made it, he shot a 1-under 71. “I was just going to come in and wait on the tee,� said Wagner, 38, a three-time TOUR winner who has limited status this season. “My plan was to be on the range warming up at 6:30, before the first tee time at 6:45. If someone couldn’t go I was going to be available.� Wagner was fifth alternate at the entry deadline, but he already had to be in Orlando for a PGA TOUR Policy Board meeting on Monday. By then he’d moved up some, and he ascended all the way to first alternate when Talor Gooch withdrew Wednesday morning. He would have been crazy not to stick around. Playing with Daniel Berger (77) and Chesson Hadley (71) on Thursday, he tied for low man in the group. “I haven’t played here since 2013,� said Wagner, who missed the cut at The Honda Classic but finished T2 at the Puerto Rico Open before that. “I’ve always loved this place. I finished (tied for) 4th in 2012. “I got in 21 events last year and I’ll play 20 events, at least, this year,� he added. “I should’ve won in Puerto Rico. I was tied for the lead with two to play and hit a wedge into 17 and came up short and made bogey, and didn’t birdie 18. But my confidence is high, and I’m going to tear it up when I get in this year.� Wagner said he’d twice been first alternate on a Thursday, once in 2010 and once in 2015, but didn’t get in either time. He was certainly ready this time around, with the late, great Palmer’s trademark umbrella logo pinned to his hat and embroidered on his staff bag. “If I can go out there and rip it up tomorrow,� Wagner said, “get in contention, that would be a good story: first alternate to winner.�

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