Win probabilities: Masters Tournament

Because there are numerous fantasy formats for short- and long-range investments, the implications of the rescheduled 2019-20 PGA TOUR season stretch far and wide. This primer focuses on everything that could impact your gaming. It’s a one-stop shop covering what’s happened since THE PLAYERS Championship was canceled in March. Every component is labeled, but don’t skim over any section because some attention crosses over. Links are provided throughout. Bookmark what you need if you already haven’t. If you have any questions, connect with me on Twitter and/or use the discussion space at the bottom of this page. MEMBERSHIP ELIGIBILITY In our world, this is the most important matter in the wake of the hiatus. A fair amount of what’s organized in this primer is broken down in further depth here, but that wasn’t written specifically with gamers in mind. Since non-DFS formats rely on playing time for extended planning, it’s imperative to understand how membership status has been affected. This is to say that it hasn’t. All current PGA TOUR members are guaranteed to retain membership for the entirety of 2020-21. Golfers not on medical extensions cannot be demoted. Furthermore, because the 2020 Korn Ferry Tour Finals was canceled, the only two ways that current non-members can become members in 2020-21 is by winning a PGA TOUR event or by finishing with at least as many equivalent FedExCup points as the golfer who finishes 125th in the 2020 FedExCup. The membership minimum of 15 starts has been eliminated in 2019-20 for internationals who qualify for the home-circuit exemption. In short, don’t sweat consideration of an international either as a keeper for 2020-21 or on Draft Day based on how many starts he totals this season. MEDICAL EXTENSIONS Golfers who had made at least one start in 2019-20 and hadn’t fulfilled their terms when the hiatus started were given the option to reset their medical extension. Of the 17 eligible, only Charl Schwartzel and Morgan Hoffmann elected not to reset. The full explanation of the options and terms for all golfers on medicals can be found here. With decisions made, golfers on medical extensions will be treated as usual. It’s possible that any can be demoted or lose PGA TOUR status entirely. RESCHEDULED REMAINDER OF 2019-20 Fourteen tournaments remain, the last three of which comprise the FedExCup Playoffs. The first seven (through the 3M Open on July 23-26) make up Segment 3 in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. Although Segment 4 consists of only six events (sans the Barracuda Championship opposite the World Golf Championships-FedEx St. Jude Invitational), strategy during that stretch still requires pause so that you can defend as a front-runner and zag as a chaser, particularly in the last two without a cut. The John Deere Classic has been canceled this year. It will return in 2021. In its place will be a new tournament sponsored by Workday with a field of 156 at Muirfield Village Golf Club on July 9-12. Muirfield Village will then host the 120-man Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide as originally scheduled the following week. FIELD SIZES In an effort to facilitate as much playing time as possible, three tournaments have increased their fields. Both the Charles Schwab Challenge (June 11-14) and the RBC Heritage (June 18-21) have reserved space for 144 golfers. That’s up from 120 and 132, respectively, and each retained its status as an invitational. Also, the Barracuda Championship (July 30-August 2) has expanded by 12 to accommodate 132 golfers. It’s a familiar size for that tournament, but all additional events were contracted to 120 golfers entering the 2019-20 season. OPEN QUALIFIERS Beginning with the Travelers Championship on June 25-28, six open qualifiers remain. The lineup includes the Workday event that has replaced the John Deere Classic, which annually also is an open. Refrain from referring to the open qualifiers as four-spotters, however. Only two openings in each of the tournaments proper will be reserved for the open qualifiers. Should any be considered not playable due to the pandemic, both spots will go to the next two TOUR members eligible for the field. PLAYOFFS Other than the one-week shift of all three events that includes the TOUR Championship starting on Friday, Sept. 4, and ending on Labor Day Monday, Sept. 7, the only change concerns FedExCup points awarded during the Playoffs. Instead of the customary quadrupling, points earned in the Playoffs will be tripled. Consider this when mapping out who you want where and when in One & Done situations. Fantasy.PGATOUR.COM no longer hosts One & Done gaming, but my solutions on how to address the new format for the TOUR Championship still apply. If however you modified your game in 2019 didn’t fulfill its intent or if you’ve yet to tackle it, you’ll find my ideas here. KORN FERRY TOUR GRADUATE RESHUFFLE At the start of the hiatus, three reorders hadn’t yet occurred. That has been trimmed to two for a total of four on the season. The third reorder is scheduled at the conclusion of the RBC Heritage on June 21. The last will take place at the conclusion of the new Workday event on July 12. For all things connected to this category, click here. How this category is prioritized at the beginning of the 2020-21 season is TBD as of this primer. ROOKIES One of the 21 rookies will win the Arnold Palmer Award as voted upon by eligible TOUR members. However, because there are no new members planned for 2020-21, it’s possible that next season will begin with zero rookies. At the conclusion of the hiatus, only Tom Lewis (five starts) hadn’t played more than seven times to exhaust his rookie eligibility and no non-members had achieved Special Temporary Membership [STM] en route to potentially qualifying as a rookie during the 2019-20 season. (With the equivalent of 188.133 FedExCup points, Erik van Rooyen has the most of all non-members.) The target for STM during the 2019-20 season remains the equivalent of 288.035 FedExCup points. The same target has been determined for the 2020-21 season. While the top 10 in Korn Ferry Tour points at the conclusion of the Korn Ferry Tour Championship presented by United Leasing & Finance on Aug. 27-30 will be granted exemptions into all additional events on the PGA TOUR in 2020-21, none will be a PGA TOUR member unless he’s already a former winner on the TOUR or if he wins three times on the KFT in the interim. QUALIFIERS The page dedicated to qualifiers into THE PLAYERS, the majors and the World Golf Championships has been updated for the resumption of the 2019-20 season. It’s also organized in a unique, temporary fashion to avoid confusion. Only the World Golf Championships-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open and the Masters remain in calendar-year 2020, but because the last two majors apply to the 2020-21 season with criteria that has carried over from 2019-20, all tournaments for which the qualifiers are eligible are listed in chronological order. Traditional formatting will return at the beginning of next season. OFFICIAL WORLD GOLF RANKING The last update on March 15 was used to trigger exemptions for the top 50 into the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational and the 2020 Masters. Revised dates for additional entries this summer were determined for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude and the PGA Championship. The OWGR issued a release on June 3 stating that it would restart the ranking with the Charles Schwab Challenge. Because other tours will not resume at the same time, the fantasy value of international non-members who play abroad regularly and will appear on the PGA TOUR is a little higher for all gamers, especially for those in formats with eyes on non-members hovering around the top 50 in the OWGR and with seven majors, five WGCs and THE PLAYERS scheduled through the summer of 2021.

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Paul Casey closed Sunday with a 1-over 72 to become the first back-to-back winner of the Valspar Championship.

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