Tiger in contention after solid opening round

Happy New Year! As the date above shows, it’s literally the first day of the year, so you know that the greeting is genuine. Beginning at some time later this week, we can debate (and disagree) when the message jumps the shark, but if the PGA TOUR in 2018 provides even a fraction of what we witnessed last year, we’ll be happy all year. The season resumes with the Sentry Tournament of Champions at Kapalua Resort’s Plantation Course on Maui. He’s gone 2nd-Win-T3 and has averaged 67.67 in those 12 rounds since debuting here in 2014. Arrives having recorded six straight top 10s, the last a T3 at the Hero World Challenge. Beginning a fortnight of title defenses in Hawaii. Ranked third in proximity and fourth in strokes gained: putting here last year. Gutted out victory in South Korea in October. Concluded 2017 with a solo second at Mayakoba and a victory at the Hero. T6 (2013) and solo fifth (2016) in previous two appearance at Kapalua. Checks every box. Since 2013 title here, he’s logged four top 10s in as many trips and a scoring average of 69.00 in 15 rounds. Began the 2017-18 season with a disappointing T2 at the WGC-HSBC. When you insert a long-hitting ball-striker into the spaciousness of Kapalua, you’d expect a T3 (2015), a solo second (2017) and a scoring average of 68.13 in eight rounds. Return trip, albeit five years since his debut (T23). Cannot overstate his confidence in the wind. Four top-four finishes in his last six starts worldwide capped a career year. Keeps on keepin’ on and giving no reason why he won’t continue his remarkable pace. Currently second in FedExCup points. Ended a six-year hiatus at Kapalua with a T3 last year. Third appearance and second consecutive after winning the Safeway. Ranked fifth in proximity en route to a T6 at Kapalua last year. Shared 13th place in his last start at the CIMB. Fits the profile (read more on this below) to prevail. Terrific putter in his second appearance. Already has two top fives and a solo eighth on the board this season. Sealed 2017 with victory at the DP World Tour Championship, his latest in a litany of impressive performances in tournament debuts. Maui’s trade winds are new to him this week. Opened 2017-18 with a T4 at The RSM Classic. Second in proximity and T3 in strokes gained: putting during a solo ninth in only previous Kapalua appearance in 2016. T14 in what was a sum-is-greater-than-parts showing as a debutant last year. Won’t mind another go at the Bermuda greens, but still needs to rely on his balanced attack. The first-timer already has a T3 at the CIMB Classic on his ledger this season and he placed (a distant) T2 in his last start at the Dunlop Phoenix. Now 25th in the OWGR. Rested since breakthrough victory at the Shriners. Expect first-time lumps, but since resuming his career 11 months ago, he’s 15-for-15 with five top 10s and another five top 25s. A T3 here in 2016 is the best finish by any first-timer in the last two editions. Now recovering from a sore left wrist that has overshadowed a T2 and a win this fall. POWER RANKINGS: SENTRY TOURNAMENT OF CHAMPIONS   RANK PLAYER COMMENT With only 34 golfers in the field, there is no Sleepers this week. Instead, all remaining golfers will appear in Tuesday’s Fantasy Insider. It was announced in August that Sentry Insurance assumed title sponsorship of the winners-only Tournament of Champions through 2022. Of this year’s 37 qualifiers, only Sergio Garcia, Justin Rose and Henrik Stenson have chosen not to compete. Fourteen of the 34 in the field are making their tournament debut, including Adam Hadwin of Canada, Jon Rahm of Spain and Cameron Smith of Australia. Not only is each attempting to become the first first-timer to prevail in 10 years (Daniel Chopra), but each would be ending the Americans’ streak of seven consecutive victories. If it doesn’t seem like that should matter in the context of an individual sport – you’re right, it really doesn’t outside of fact – consider that the previous nine editions were won by internationals. Sticking to another trend, with his three-stroke victory last year, Justin Thomas became the third straight winner in his second appearance, following Patrick Reed (2015) and Jordan Spieth (2016). There is a learning curve at Kapalua, but the youth of today are ruining it for the rest of the class, not that the formula for success is a mystery this week. With generous fairways, one of the largest and most receptive sets of greens on the schedule and an exclusive field comprised only of winners, the extremes baked into the challenge amplify the necessity to hit the ground sprinting. As you’d expect on a par 73 (with four par 5s but only three par 3s on a 7,452-yard layout) and with a field of this quality, Kapalua is three years running as the easiest course in relation to par. Last year’s average landed at 70.375. Connecting on approach or with the putter are prerequisites to contend, but the overlying objective is to knock it in tight what with the top of the leaderboard often eclipsing the field average of greens in regulation with easy targets. Bermudagrass surfaces are prepped to run at just 10 feet on the Stimpmeter, while the introduction of a fringe cut extending nearly two feet around the perimeter of every green figures to grab a handful of aggressive approaches. Textbook weather conditions are expected throughout the tournament. Moderate-to-gusty trade winds present the greatest test for the 14 newcomers, while sun-splashed vistas accompanying daytime highs in the upper 70s will remind most of us on the mainland why Hawaii is an even more popular destination at this time of year. ROB BOLTON’S WRITING SCHEDULE PGATOUR.COM’s Fantasy Columnist Rob Bolton will be filing his usual staples leading up to this week’s event. Look for the following columns this week. MONDAY: Rookie Ranking, Qualifiers, Reshuffle, Medical Extensions, Power Rankings TUESDAY*: Fantasy Insider WEDNESDAY: One & Done * – Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO, which also publishes on Tuesdays.

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The Monday of the week before the PGA Championship always is especially active in the fantasy world. It also serves as an unofficial launch into a dizzying few weeks as the fields of the last three majors of the season take serious shape. RELATED: Horses for Courses | Sleeper picks It’s not that we can’t project a high percentage of the qualifiers in advance – many of you already do that – but until the top 70 in PGA Championship Points are official, even one last-minute stumble or surge can change the complexion of your short-range decision-making. I write the weekly update to Qualifiers every Sunday night. It usually publishes soon after, but during weeks when there are so many moving parts, including a requirement to wait for the latest Official World Golf Ranking, you won’t read it until at least Monday morning. Then, because the PGA of America dished out the last set of special exemptions into the PGA Championship midday on Monday, the expected midweek update was necessary ASAP. If you’ve ever wondered, yes, I use that one-stop shop for my own gaming. In fact, I already had been maintaining my own database prior to introducing it to the fantasy audience at Rotoworld when I started an eight-year run leading the golf content on that old website in 2008. It remains as invaluable to all kinds of fantasy formats with which bettors, DFSers and other newer weekly gamers are not familiar. What Qualifiers doesn’t have is the list of alternates at Southern Hills Country Club. They consist of the golfers outside the top 70 in PGA Championship Points who are not yet exempt. So, Brendan Steele (78th), Beau Hossler (79th) and Kramer Hickok (80th) are the first three alternates. The last spot in the field of 156 is reserved for this week’s winner in Texas. POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD Tommy Fleetwood (+175 for a Top 20) … As likely as it is for relative unknowns to emerge as products of the equation that generates victory in shootouts, we shouldn’t look past familiar faces like the Englishman. We need him to gather more scoring opportunities, but he’s the kind of profile who could turn this into a putting contest. At the same time, he’s a better fit on more difficult venues. DRAWS Matthew Wolff (+350 for a Top 20) … Without perspective, what do you have? To paraphrase what my physics teacher in 11th grade said in his opening remarks on the first day, “Everything is optional.” He was referring to attending his class once we reached the age when physically going to school no longer was required by law. It varies by state, and no one bailed – why would we?; he’d open almost every class with 15 minutes of irreverent commentary reminiscent of the late P.J. O’Rourke before we started in on the material – but it’s a message that has rung loudly since. Last week, Wolff echoed it in his own way. He’s out to have fun because this is what he wants to do. Loyal readers know that my first rule of playing fantasy golf is to have fun, and that nothing else matters until you do. After opening with 65, Wolff held on for a T25. He led the field in distance of all drives, a can’t-teach superpower that will play up at TPC Craig Ranch. K.H. Lee (+350 for a Top 20) … It’s rare for a defending champion to be “only” a Draw. Typically, I’ll push him into an extreme or highlight as the Wild Card, but I think you’d agree that this is where he belongs. Shootouts often yield surprise winners for whom the win is more of a spike than a shock. He’s been coasting along since, but he’s risen for only one top 10 since, and last week’s T25 at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm was his first top 25 of 2022. He’ll be impossible to hide this week, but you won’t miss him in the rueful way if you refrain from holstering, either. Jason Kokrak (+200 for a Top 20) … He’s missed only one cut in the last seven months, so he’ll fulfill even low expectations, but I’m more interested in how his game stacks up at Colonial in a couple of weeks. He’ll be defending what was his second PGA TOUR victory but it’s his first title defense on the same course. Davis Riley (+250 for a Top 20) … Not only did he descend with consistently strong form, but he also was a late recipient of an exemption into next week’s PGA Championship. Lots and lots of validation early in the PGA TOUR career of this rookie. Christiaan Bezuidenhout Adam Hadwin Si Woo Kim David Lipsky Sebastián Muñoz Adam Scott Sahith Theegala Odds sourced on Tuesday, May 10th at 6 p.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm FADES Brooks Koepka … He missed the cut here last year, but even if he was the defending champion, he remains the most active moving target on the board. We can absorb that in the long-term, and I’ll never advise that any professional is looking ahead to a major, but we also can’t rule it out, either. When there are too many question marks, pass. Kevin Kisner … TPC Craig Ranch is a big ballpark, so the nuance that contributes to his success doesn’t have the impact that it does on tracks like Waialae and TPC Sawgrass, sites of top-five finishes this year. No, the concern isn’t airtight, but this game we play already is tough enough. Accept the challenge, invest elsewhere and we’ll reevaluate the next time. J.J. Spaun … Statistically a fine fit, but his breakthrough victory at TPC San Antonio presents as the aforementioned spike (see K.H. Lee’s capsule in Draws). He chased it with an impressive T23 in his Masters debut, but then missed the cut at Harbour Town at the tail end of that stressful, three-week stretch. Tom Hoge … For the guy who leads the PGA TOUR with 34 sub-70s, and with the promise of probably four more this week, this slot would seem patently wrong. However, in his last six stroke-play starts, all of which on tough tracks, he failed to connect for a top 30, and his scores do not reflect difficulty relative to the challenge. In other words, he’s struggled more than his season-long data would project. I wrote in the Power Rankings that golfers can find their games at TPC Craig Ranch. He’s the perfect example to put that to the test but consider letting his go it alone. Stephen Jaeger … OK, this is backwards. After lighting stages on fire through the 2020-21 Korn Ferry Tour season en route to his return to the PGA TOUR and with status north of the reshuffle, he did virtually nothing until the last two weeks, and only what are not the easiest courses to tackle, for different reasons. Rather, he would have been projected to hang up deeply numbers on a track like TPC Craig Ranch. He gets credit for current form and a rush of momentum, but I’m still skeptical no matter what analytics you want to cite. Jason Day Luke List Francesco Molinari Ryan Palmer Seamus Power Henrik Stenson Lee Westwood RETURNING TO COMPETITION Mito Pereira … Let’s try this again. A sore back prevented him from playing on after just on round of the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, and he decommitted from last week’s Wells Fargo Championship before his R1 tee time. Given the test and the conditions, that was a sensible call. This week’s track is worthy of giving it a go. Warm weather and the ease for scoring will give him a fair understanding of his progress with the lights on. He’ll likely come cheap, too, so go ahead and reach. Nate Lashley … An injured toe thwarted the shot at another top 20. That’s what he cited for the reason he walked off TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm during his second round last week. Can’t imagine the problem would linger this long, but only DFSers should consider, and fractionally at that. Curtis Thompson … A back injury knocked him out of the Wells Fargo Championship during his first round. It was a shame considering his brother, Nicholas, had open-qualified. Alas, Nitro missed the cut. Martin Trainer … Wanna talk about the grind? Here’s a guy who tumbled to 1,310th in the Official World Golf Ranking seven events into this season during which he’s fully exempt by virtue of his victory at the 2019 Puerto Rico Open (and subsequent extension of status triggered by the pandemic), but now he’s 410th in the OWGR and 126th in the FedExCup thanks primarily to a pair of top 10s and a T11 (two weeks ago in Mexico). He had to withdraw after opening the Wells Fargo Championship with a 76 due to an injured thumb, but slot him as a flier in this shootout. NOTABLES WDs Brian Harman … This is odd because he was a late entry. It doesn’t happen often, but it’s not unprecedented. Given the variables, I loved the commitment so much that I slotted him at No. 9 in my Power Rankings. Instead, we won’t see the lefty until Southern Hills Country Club next week. Erik van Rooyen … He’s opted for four weeks of rest and prep ahead of next week’s PGA Championship. The South African is equipped with exemptions into the U.S. Open and The Open Championship as well, so a midseason break is as valuable as it is important. Doug Ghim … He’s 12-for-18 on the season with a T6 at THE PLAYERS, but that’s his only top 25, so he’s 127th in the FedExCup. Danny Lee … No stranger to mid-tournament WDs, the 31-year-old opened his current 0-for-5 skid with one at TPC San Antonio, citing an illness. He’s 74th in the FedExCup and virtually safe to return to the Playoffs after falling short for the first time in eight consecutive seasons since reclaiming his card in 2013-14. However, he’s been unownable in every format since the T2-T7 blast last fall. Morgan Hoffmann … With just one start remaining on his Major Medical Extension, he needs to be choosy. TPC Craig Ranch would seem to be a good fit in that it’s in the kind of climes with which he was familiar for his successful run at Oklahoma State University, but this is fixin’ to be a shootout, just as it was last year. Even if he truly believes that he could clear the hurdle, his game hasn’t returned well enough to contend. To fulfill the terms of his medical, he needs 238.420 FedExCup points for which no worse than a two-way T2 worth 245 would cover. For conditional status as the secondary objective, he’d need 127.098 FedExCup for which a solo fourth worth 135 points is the lowest target. Short of that and he’d lose his card. His next goal would be to qualify for the Korn Ferry Tour Finals via the KFT or non-member FedExCup points. Nick Hardy … This is the third consecutive tournament from which he’s pulled out early due to an injured wrist. The PGA TOUR rookie is 193rd in the FedExCup. Rasmus Højgaard … He also was an early withdrawal from the Puerto Rico Open, and he’s not exempt into next week’s PGA Championship, so his scheduling is as fluid as anyone’s. His non-member equivalent of FedExCup points (104) would slot him 184th among members, so he’s angling at eligibility for the KFT Finals; that is, if he’s pursuing a PGA TOUR card in 2022-23. Whatever the case, the 21-year-old Dane is an exciting talent, but he’s still useful only in spot starts. RECAP – WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP POWER RANKINGS Power Ranking Golfer Result 1 Marc Leishman MC 2 Corey Conners T21 3 Rory McIlroy 5th 4 Matt Fitzpatrick T2 5 Tyrrell Hatton T37 6 Matt Kuchar T49 7 Keegan Bradley T2 8 Cameron Young T2 9 Gary Woodland MC 10 Russell Henley T41 11 Seamus Power MC 12 Anirban Lahiri T6 13 Brian Harman T9 14 Sergio Garcia T21 15 Abraham Ancer T56 Wild Card Tony Finau T41 SLEEPERS Golfer (Bet) Result Joel Dahmen (+250 for a Top 20) T51 Cam Davis (+333 for a Top 20) MC Martin Laird (+300 for a Top 20) 61st Matthias Schwab (+400 for a Top 20) MC Jhonattan Vegas (+225 for a Top 20) T15 GOLFBET Bet: Seamus Power, Max Homa and Marc Leishman all to make the cut (+210) Result: MC/Win/MC BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE MEMBERS OF THE PGA TOUR May 10 … Parker McLachlin (43) May 11 … Briny Baird (50) May 12 … Jim Furyk (52); Mike Weir (52); Garrick Higgo (23) May 13 … none May 14 … none May 15 … Roger Sloan (35) May 16 … Bo Van Pelt (47); Derek Ernst (32)

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