Jimenez shines on record-breaking 707th European Tour start

Through 36 holes at The RSM Classic, Charles Howell III leads by 3 strokes at 14 under par. His closest pursuers are Cameron Champ and Jason Gore, both of whom are sitting on 11 under. Here are the top 10 win probabilities according to our live model: We have Champ and Howell III estimated to be of nearly identical ability levels; therefore the 30 percentage point advantage for Howell III is entirely due to his current 3 stroke advantage. A little further back is Webb Simpson at 6 under par. Simpson is by a wide margin the class of this field according to our model and could be a player to watch for over the weekend. Howell III has been a model of consistency throughout his career. Shown below is his performance data for every tournament since the 2014 season. The y-axis here is in units of adjusted (for field strength) strokes-gained. Remarkably, despite having a 10 event moving average (the black line) that fluctuates between 0 and +1 for most of this time span, Howell III had just 1 event in which he averaged more than +3 strokes-gained. This is statistically very unlikely, and indicates that Howell III is a low-variance player (i.e. has fewer great rounds but also fewer poor rounds than the typical player of his ability level). To win on the PGA TOUR, anywhere from a +2.5 to +6 true strokes-gained performance can be required to get it done (depending on field strength and how widely dispersed scores are in a given week). To win this weekend for the first time since 2007, Howell will almost certainly need to average above that +3 strokes-gained barrier for the week. NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of The RSM Classic, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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When Hideki Matsuyama became the No. 1-ranked amateur in the world in 2012, he was the first player from Asia to reach the milestone. A slice of Matsuyama’s influence on the sport since – both in his native Japan and around the globe – is evidenced in that same World Amateur Golf Ranking. This week, Taiga Semikawa is the No. 1 amateur in the men’s game – the third different WAGR No. 1 from Japan in the last three years. As the most prolific PGA TOUR winner all-time from Japan (eight wins) and the country’s first men’s major champion, Matsuyama’s impact on growing the sport’s popularity might be fully seen in the burgeoning wave of talent to follow. Matsuyama will look to successfully defend a PGA TOUR title for the second time in his career this week at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP. A better approach The hallmark statistical trait of Matsuyama’s game has always been his stellar approach play. In 2021-22, Matsuyama ranked sixth on the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Approach per round, the eighth time in his career he has finished a season ranked inside the top-10 on TOUR in that statistic. That’s tied for the most seasons ranked in the top-10 in SG: Approach since tracking began in 2004, alongside Tiger Woods and Jim Furyk. There are more than 470 players who have accumulated 125 measured rounds or more in the PGA TOUR ShotLink era, which began in 2004. Of that group, only six have averaged more Strokes Gained: Approach per round than Matsuyama (+0.74 per round). Just four players have had 500 or more rounds measured by ShotLink and averaged 0.70 Strokes Gained: Approach per round or more: Matsuyama, Furyk, Paul Casey and Justin Thomas. When Matsuyama is at his best, he’s usually brought that facet of his game up to an even higher level. Advanced data is available in six of Matsuyama’s career wins on the PGA TOUR. In five of those six victories, Matsuyama ranked fourth or better in the field that week in Strokes Gained: Approach. In all, 44.6% of Matsuyama’s Strokes Gained: Total in his wins have come from his approach play. That’s a significantly higher average than his peers – over the last 10 seasons, players who win on the PGA TOUR gain, on average, 35% of their strokes via approach shots. Though Matsuyama has been consistently good throughout his professional career with his approach play, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t found room for improvement. One area of recent improvement is his proximity to the hole from 125 to 150 yards. Matsuyama ranked 71st on TOUR in that particular proximity range just three years ago. He ranked No. 2 on TOUR in that statistic in 2020-21, and he led the TOUR in it last season. In Matsuyama’s 2021 Masters win, he ranked fourth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach (+1.79 per round) and tied for seventh in greens in regulation. Green jacket in tow, Matsuyama will be a fixture at Augusta National for decades to come. With iron play being incredibly significant there – six of the last eight Masters winners ranked in the top-five that week in Strokes Gained: Approach – Matsuyama should find himself hitting significant shots on Masters Sunday many times in the future. Success tee-to-green While Matsuyama’s transcendent talent comes with his irons, he’s been a good driver of the ball since turning pro, too. Since 2013-14, Matsuyama has averaged 0.33 Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee per round on the PGA TOUR, 43rd-best of 331 players with 100 or more ShotLink-measured rounds in that span – that comes out to the top-13 percent. Matsuyama’s overall ball striking numbers since turning pro are, in turn, absolutely stellar. He’s ranked ninth on the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking per round since 2013-14 (+1.06), his first full season. He’s fifth on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green per round (+1.32) in that same span, just ahead of Justin Thomas. Matsuyama has ranked in the top-20 on the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in each of the previous nine seasons, the longest active streak of any player. This consistently reliable ball striking has made Matsuyama one of the more bankable week-to-week performers on the PGA TOUR over the last decade. Matsuyama has never missed more than five cuts in a single PGA TOUR season. He hasn’t had back-to-back missed cuts in more than six years – the last time that happened was in the summer of 2016, at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday and U.S. Open. Since 2014-15, Matsuyama’s 49 top-10 finishes are tied for seventh-most on the PGA TOUR. Winning the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP in 2021 Matsuyama’s five-stroke margin of victory at last year’s ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP marked the third time he has won a PGA TOUR event by five shots or more. Matsuyama started the final round with a one-shot lead, but carded two eagles and three birdies that Sunday to move away from the pack. His ball striking was, again, excellent – he led the field in greens in regulation for the tournament, hitting 81.9%, while the field averaged just over 61%. He also scrambled at a 77% clip, second-best of anyone in the field. In two previous starts at Accordia Golf Narashino CC, Matsuyama has been bested by one player (Tiger Woods in 2019) and has never shot a score higher than 68. Six players have successfully defended a title on the PGA TOUR since the beginning of last season, including Max Homa at the 2022-23 season-opening Fortinet Championship. Matsuyama and his brilliant approach play have a great opportunity to extend that list this week.

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Welcome to Numbers to Know, where we’ll take a closer look at Dustin Johnson’s victory in the TOUR Championship and his first FedExCup. Here are the best stats from Johnson’s victory at East Lake Golf Club: 11: Dustin Johnson is the first player in 11 years (Tiger Woods) to win the FedExCup after arriving at East Lake as the top seed. 3: Johnson could become the third player to win the FedExCup, end the season at No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking and be voted PGA TOUR Player of the Year in the same season. Player of the Year, which is voted on by the players, will be announced later this year. Woods (2007, ’09) and Jordan Spieth (2015) also did it. 23: This was Johnson’s 23rd PGA TOUR victory, which ranks 27th all-time. 30: Johnson has won 30% of his starts since the Return to Golf (3 of 10). 6: This was Johnson’s sixth win in the FedExCup Playoffs, the most all-time. He also has the most top-fives (13) and top-10s (21) in Playoffs history. 4: Johnson has won three or more titles in four of the past five seasons. 12: Johnson has qualified for East Lake for 12 consecutive years, the longest active streak on TOUR. 6: Johnson has finished inside the top five in the FedExCup six times. 3: Johnson ranked third on TOUR this season in approach-shot proximity from the fairway. He also ranked third in approach-shot proximity from the rough. 4: Johnson held the 54-hole lead in his final four starts of the season. He finished second twice and won twice. Johnson shot 68 or lower in all four Sundays. The two times he was beaten – by Collin Morikawa at the PGA and Jon Rahm at the BMW — the winner shot 64 to pass him.

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