Atlantic Coast Conference makes decision: No college golf this fall

NOTE: For three events, Rob is focusing only on golfers needing a good performance to advance in the FedExCup Playoffs. In this final edition, all five below enter the BMW Championship outside the top 30 in points. Scenarios for all golfers to advance will be published later this week. Shane Lowry (+125 for a Top 20) … He didn’t come this far not to go any farther. Sure, you could say the same thing about everyone in the field at the BMW Championship, but few have been as consistently strong as the 35-year-old throughout 2022. With a trio of podium finishes leading the way, including his solo second in the ill-timed rain at the finish line of The Honda Classic, he’s 37th in the FedExCup. If there’s any cosmic balance in the golf world, it’ll be his turn to climb into the top 30, just as FedEx St. Jude Championship playoff victim (and Honda champion) Sepp Straka did on Sunday. Entering the week, Lowry was 28th, but Straka has since climbed from 35th to eighth. And you can bet that the Irishman will have an umbrella at the ready with rain in the forecast in Wilmington on the weekend. Aaron Wise (+110 for a Top 20) … Of all of the guys outside the top 30 in the FedExCup upon arrival, his position is most envious. That’s because he’s 31st after a T31 at TPC Southwind. Like others, he’s long and accurate from tee to green, but that’s exactly the formula for success on Wilmington Country Club’s South Course this week. It was just a couple of months ago when he challenged for a solo second at Muirfield Village, another stretched-out track with bentgrass greens. Denny McCarthy (+275 for a Top 20) … This bet is a gimme, right? In his last seven starts, he’s recorded three top 10s, one T20 and missed three cuts. With no cut at the BMW Championship, he’s a lock for a top 20! Of course, if it worked that way, there wouldn’t be any risk, but investors in his starts haven’t felt much of that with him for most of the season, anyway. Currently 35th in the FedExCup and on the pantheon of the best putters on the PGA TOUR. K.H. Lee … If he wasn’t as high as his current position of 33rd in the FedExCup, he probably wouldn’t have landed in the final edition of Sleepers for the 2021-22 season. (Promotional note: The Power Rankings for the TOUR Championship always is a full-field version.) Since defending his breakthrough victory at the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson with another title three months ago, he’s 6-for-9 but with just two top 35s. Both are top 20s, including a T20 last week at TPC Southwind where he was perfect on 60 looks from eight feet and in, nine of which were from outside three feet. The moral of the matter is that he has the firepower to deliver on value that you’ll find on the boards. Emiliano Grillo … When the regular season was entering its last six weeks, he was just inside the top 150 of the FedExCup and devoid a top-15 finish since The Open Championship in 2021. But then, in a four-week span bridging the 2022 Open, the 29-year-old from Argentina hung up a pair of runner-up finishes to secure his seventh Playoffs appearance in as many tries. Now, at 55th in points, it’s going to require another sparkling performance to advance to the TOUR Championship for the first time since he was the Rookie of the Year in 2015-16. With his tee-to-green precision on a course with unfamiliar greens, his skill set is poised to fulfill the objective. Incidentally, the last time a golfer outside the top 45 in the FedExCup at the BMW Championship qualified for the finale in any iteration of the points structure was Keegan Bradley in 2018. He did it with a victory. The last to turn the trick without a win was Robert Castro in 2016. He placed third at the BMW to jump from 53rd to 21st. Odds were sourced on Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2022. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

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When sizing up the field at the Houston Open, we can’t help but loop in next week’s Masters into the strategy. In fact, you must. Experience at Augusta National matters more than on any other host track all season, so you don’t want to spend now what you need to consider saving for later. However, the rise of so many candidates for the Masters eases our challenge for Houston. Whether you’re pacing or chasing, Phil Mickelson will serve the purpose in either event. You know he’s a three-time winner of the Masters, but it might surprise you that he’s also the all-time earnings leader in the tournament. (Tiger Woods is No. 2.) Also in the field at both is the (relatively) scuffling Jordan Spieth. He’s third on the money list at Augusta National with a win, two seconds and a T11. I’d endorse a Mickelson-Spieth exacta over the next two weeks, but not the reverse. If anything, you can comfortably holster Spieth for another major or, frankly, anytime. His litany of Future Possibilities covers the gamut. I have Justin Rose penciled in at the Masters (sixth in all-time earnings), as he should be in that the tournament is his most logical site of any all season. He’s not on my short list for Houston, either. Suddenly, Mickelson is a the obvious choice. The only other inside the top 23 on the all-time money list and currently exempt at the Masters who also is committed to the Houston Open is Ernie Els (12th), but he hasn’t cracked our consciousness in a while. (Matt Kuchar is 24th on the money list at Augusta National, but he’s always been a top-shelf bridge for a regular event due to this busy schedule among the elite.) Others worth considering in Houston: Henrik Stenson has never had a top 10 at the Masters, so you might as well keep it simple and invest while he’s in form and comfortable with the course. If you’re like me, never mind the fade at Bay Hill and accept the top-five finish. You never can win them all. Daniel Berger will be the two-time defending champion at the FedEx St. Jude Classic. Enough said. I gave Rickie Fowler a serious look for the Houston Open because he’s hung up three top 10s and fits the rhetorical angle that he’s one of the handful of notables who hasn’t won in 2018. However I went into the season to burn him in a major, and will stick to that plan. Still, if you need to make some noise, he’ll be under-owned this week. As mentioned in the Power Rankings, the Houston Open is probably going to be the last hurrah for Charles Howell III in our world this season. His Future Possibilities confirm it. He’s perfect if you own a decent lead and consider who your opponents burn as net-positives since those golfers go off their boards. Keegan Bradley also presents well for front-runners. Last but hardly least, defending champion and course thoroughbred Russell Henley is right there for the taking. The problem with him is that gamers in pursuit will gobble him up, so league leaders can do the same, play defense and won’t miss him. (If you’re one of them, remember, you’ve earned it!) In addition to Spieth, Rose and Kuchar, I’m cool on Rafa Cabrera Bello (bridge), Jason Dufner, Tony Finau and Steve Stricker as primaries. Stricker would be fine to complement the lead in two-man formats, though. Looking ahead, the John Deere Classic will be contested opposite the Constellation SENIOR PLAYERS Championship again this summer. He played the JDC last year, but even though it’s tough to envision the possibility that he won’t return, we’ve never guaranteed these things. Two-man gamers are wise also to factor in Sean O’Hair, Bud Cauley, Lee Westwood and Byeong Hun An in Houston. FUTURE POSSIBILITIES NOTE: Select golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held in 2017-18. The numerical values in parentheses represent the order of relative confidence of where to use each golfer if multiple sites are listed (e.g. 1 for strongest, 2 for next-strongest and so on). To present weighted confidence in real time, numerical values will not change all season no matter how many tournament remain listed for each golfer. All are pending golfer commitment. Daniel Berger … Houston (3); St. Jude (1; two-time defending); Travelers (2) Keegan Bradley … Houston (3); Memorial (5); WGC-Bridgestone (2) Jason Dufner … Fort Worth (2); Memorial (3; defending); U.S. Open (4); Wyndham (6); TOUR Championship (7) Tony Finau … Valero (5); Memorial (3); Greenbrier (2); Canadian (4) Rickie Fowler … Houston (4); Masters (8); Wells Fargo (7); PLAYERS (9); WGC-Bridgestone (3); THE NORTHERN TRUST (10); Dell Technologies (6) Bill Haas … Wyndham (2) Russell Henley … Houston (1; defending); Greenbrier (3) J.B. Holmes … Houston (2); Wells Fargo (7); Greenbrier (5) Charles Howell III … Houston (7) Chris Kirk … Valero (4); PLAYERS (3); Fort Worth (2) Russell Knox … Heritage (2); PLAYERS (8); Dell Technologies (7) Matt Kuchar … Masters (5); Heritage (1); Valero (10); PLAYERS (11); Fort Worth (6); Memorial (2); Canadian (3); WGC-Bridgestone (7); THE NORTHERN TRUST (9) William McGirt … Heritage (1); Memorial (4) Phil Mickelson … Houston (3); Masters (4); Wells Fargo (2); St. Jude (1); Open Championship (5) Ryan Palmer … Valero (1); Fort Worth (2); St. Jude (6) Scott Piercy … Houston (5); John Deere (6) Justin Rose … Masters (1); Wells Fargo (4); PLAYERS (9); Memorial (6); Open Championship (8); WGC-Bridgestone (7); TOUR Championship (2) Brandt Snedeker … Masters (7); Heritage (10); Fort Worth (11); U.S. Open (5); Travelers (6); Canadian (3); Wyndham (4) Jordan Spieth … Houston (11); Masters (1); Heritage (12); Fort Worth (2); Travelers (6; defending); John Deere (7); Open Championship (9; defending); WGC-Bridgestone (10); TOUR Championship (4) Henrik Stenson … Houston (10); Open Championship (6); WGC-Bridgestone (4); PGA Championship (7); Wyndham (8; defending); Dell Technologies (9); TOUR Championship (2) Kevin Streelman … Wells Fargo (3); Memorial (1); Travelers (2)

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