Matthew Wolff finds sweet separation at Rocket Mortgage Classic

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THE OVERVIEW Club de Golf Chapultepec is in the heart of Mexico, but based on last year’s results, it may be the most European of courses on the PGA TOUR. Consider the leaderboard at the 2017 World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship: Although American Dustin Johnson was the winner, the next four finishers were from Europe. Of the top 10 players, six were from Europe, and of the 27 players who finished T25 or better, there were more Europeans (13) than Americans (12). That’s not a ratio we see very often on the PGA TOUR. The Open Championship, of course, may favor Europeans since it’s played in the United Kingdom and has more Europeans in the field. Obviously, World Golf Championships fields generally will have a higher ratio of Europeans than regular PGA TOUR events, since several of this week’s participants are regulars on the European Tour. Still, perhaps the Europeans have found their comfort zone in the high-altitude course in Mexico City. Of the 65 players in the field, 17 are from Europe – including seven from England. “It is a very European layout,â€� said Englishman Tommy Fleetwood, runner-up last year to Johnson. “Last year it just reminded us of playing in Italy or some of the courses that we play. And it wasn’t just me that played well last year, there were a lot of Europeans up there. “It just is a bit of a European layout, a bit (more) of an old-school golf course (than) ones we’re kind of used to playing a little bit. It’s still different, it’s still a long way above sea level and the greens are a bit (more) slopey than what we’re used to. So there are still differences that we don’t get but just the general feel of when you’re walking down the fairways and seeing the tee shots, it’s tree-lined, that is quite a European feel to it.â€� Ironically, one of Europe’s best players did not fare well in Mexico last year. England’s Justin Rose failed to break 70 in his four rounds, eventually finishing T38 – even though he ranked first in strokes gained: tee to green. He may enter this week as Europe’s hottest player, having won three times in his last eight starts to move to No. 5 in the world. (Spain’s Jon Rahm, at No. 2, is the highest-ranked European in the world.) Rose doesn’t subscribe to the theory that Chapultepec favors long hitters, despite Johnson’s success last year. “It shouldn’t be a golf course that really suits the long hitter,â€� he said. “I think it’s the kind of golf course that suits everybody and offers everybody the opportunity to play well. It’s very strategic, there’s a lot of wedges in hand for most of the field. Yeah, it’s about kind of just getting the ball in the hole this week. “Just from memory, you can be aggressive, you can try and take it over tree lines occasionally. But if you’re on your own, that works for a long hitter, but equally there’s a lot of risk with that as well. So game plan’s very important around here, but I think all types of players can find their way around the golf course.â€� All types of players from all parts of the world, that is. THREE PLAYERS TO PONDER Dustin Johnson Defending champ is the only player to complete the World Golf Championships Slam. Justin Thomas FedExCup champ was the 54-hole leader a year ago before shooting a disappointing 72 on Sunday. Justin Rose His last five wins have come in Hong Kong, Rio de Janeiro, Shanghai, Turkey and Jakarta. THE FLYOVER The 388-yard 18th is not the shortest par 4 on the course – in fact, there are three par 4s on the front nine that are shorter – but it’s the shortest and easiest par 4 on the back nine, offering players a chance to make up ground with a closing birdie. A year ago, it played to a stroke average of 3.974. THE LANDING ZONE The most difficult hole at Chapultepec is the 525-yard eighth, which just so happens to be the longest par 4 on the course. With a stroke average of 4.359 last year, the hole ranked as the 12th most difficult of all 900 holes on the PGA TOUR last season. Just 24 birdies were made against 104 bogeys, 10 doubles and three others, with the tree-lined fairway and heavily guarded multi-tiered green adding to the challenge. Here is where all tee shots landed last year. WEATHER CHECK From PGA TOUR meteorologist Wade Stettner: “The weather pattern from Thursday through Sunday calls for sunny skies each morning with scattered thunderstorms each afternoon. Thunderstorms tend to develop after 4 p.m. in the mountains to our west and drift in the direction of the upper-level winds. Temperatures will be seasonal this week, with highs in the upper 70s each day and overnight lows in the 50s.â€�  For the latest weather news from Mexico City, check out PGATOUR.COM’s Weather Hub. SOUND CHECK “I like the course, it’s a fun little track. The course reminds me a lot of the Web(.com Tour) events I played down in South America. I played well in some of those, so I kind of have hopefully those good vibes and just got to hopefully get some more this week.â€� BY THE NUMBERS 7,835 – Altitude, by feet, of the highest point at Chapultepec. The lowest point is 7,603 feet. The course has the highest altitude of any on the PGA TOUR – nearly 2,000 feet higher than Montreux Golf & Country Club in Reno, Nevada. 77 – Number of hole-outs at last year’s WGC-Mexico Championship. That’s the most of any single event in the history of the World Golf Championships. 317.47 – Average distance (by yards) of tee shots at Chapultec last year when using a driver. That was the highest average using a driver of any course on TOUR last year. 528 – Scorecard yardage for the third hole at Chapultepec. Just two other par-4 holes were longer on the PGA TOUR last season – the 17th at Kapalua (549 yards) and the fourth at TPC Four Seasons (529 yards). SCATTERSHOTS Jordan Spieth has not won in his last 13 worldwide starts. That’s his longest drought since the 37 worldwide starts in between his first professional win at the 2013 John Deere Classic and his next win at the 2014 Australian Open. Here are the driving-distance leaders from last year’s event, broken down by club used: Driver (Rory McIlroy at 350.34 yards); Fairway wood (Justin Thomas at 333.52 yards); Iron (Dustin Johnson at 285.13 yards). Six players are making their World Golf Championships debuts this week – Mexico’s Abraham Ancer, Spain’s Jorge Campillo, South Africa’s Dylan Frittelli, Australia’s Wade Ormsby, England’s Chris Paisley and India’s Shubhankar Sharma. There are two fully-exempt players from Mexico on the PGA TOUR – Abraham Ancer (who was born in Texas but raised in Reynosa, Mexico) and Roberto Diaz (born in Veracruz). A year ago, Diaz finished T67, but he is not in the field this week. Ancer is in the field this week as the world’s highest-ranked golfer from Mexico.

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2021 AT&T Byron Nelson, Round 2 Top 10 win probabilities: 1. Sam Burns (1, -17, 43.4%) 2. Alex Noren (2, -15, 15.7%) 3. Kyounghoon Lee (3, -14, 8.4%) 4. Jordan Spieth (T6, -11, 5.3%) 5. Doc Redman (4, -13, 3.7%) 6. Carlos Ortiz (T6, -11, 2.3%) 7. Matt Kuchar (T6, -11, 2.1%) 8. Charl Schwartzel (T6, -11, 1.7%) 9. Patton Kizzire (T6, -11, 1.4%) 10. Jon Rahm (T40, -7, 1.1%) Top Strokes-Gained Performers from Round 2: Putting: Rob Oppenheim +4.2 Around the Green: Jr. Potter +3.1 Approach the Green: Sam Burns +4.4 Off-the-tee: Bryson DeChambeau +2.2 Total: Sam Burns +8.4 NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the AT&T Byron Nelson, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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