Winner’s Bag: Sebastián Muñoz, Sanderson Farms Championship

Unless you’re in a dogfight for your league title in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, THE NORTHERN TRUST is the last hope for chasers. The first event of the FedExCup Playoffs is the last tournament of the 2018-19 season with a cut. This means that all golfers in all lineups, assuming they’re saved and barring mid-round withdrawals and disqualifications, will post numbers in every round of the BMW Championship and the TOUR Championship. And since fantasy scoring is relatively even in the short-term, there won’t be any walk-offs among those of us with but a chip and a chair entering the Playoffs. As has been the case for weeks, my lineup is completely different than that of my target, Ben Everill, the front-runner in the PGA TOUR Experts League. However, because his margin is more than 300 points, my only reasonable chance to make a dent is if no fewer than five of his guys missed the cut at Liberty National and no more than two of mine are snipped. That could translate into a 300-point swing before we all but cancel each other out in the final two events. If you’re in a Playoffs pool or just curious about historical trends in the series, take a read of my special Playoffs Power Rankings. It’ll help understand for whom starts should be rationed and how the field of 30 at East Lake will be constructed. With that feature published, the next special assignment will be my full-membership fantasy ranking. While billed as such, it’s more of an introduction and guide. It will run before A Military Tribute at the Greenbrier opens the 2019-20 season on Sept. 12. All other complementary pages will turn over during the brief offseason as well. This grouping consists of the Rookie Ranking, Qualifiers, Medical Extensions and Korn Ferry Tour Graduate Reshuffle. Please continue to monitor the FANTASY page or select any of these pages via the MENU and Fantasy slider at the top. PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf My roster for THE NORTHERN TRUST (in alphabetical order): Patrick Cantlay Rickie Fowler Brooks Koepka Rory McIlroy Jon Rahm Justin Rose You’ll find my starters in Expert Picks. Others to consider for each category (in alphabetical order): Scoring: Jason Day; Dustin Johnson; Hideki Matsuyama; Sungjae Im; Ryan Palmer; Andrew Putnam; Patrick Reed; Xander Schauffele; Adam Scott; Webb Simpson; Justin Thomas Driving: Jason Day; Tommy Fleetwood; Tyrrell Hatton; Charles Howell III; Sungjae Im; Matt Kuchar; Hideki Matsuyama; Joaquin Niemann; Louis Oosthuizen; Kyle Stanley Power Rankings Wild Card Xander Schauffele … Tough crowd. No, not the locals at THE NORTHERN TRUST, although if he plays poorly, he’ll probably hear a little heat; rather, the Power Rankings proper. He was the last cut but only because he didn’t factor in his last two starts. Still, he’s entering his third Playoffs as the 4-seed thanks to a massive season. He loves the brightest lights and never should be counted out. Draws Tiger Woods … There’s no reason not to believe in him, but his comments after missing the cut at Royal Portrush were telling. For as much as we’ve expected him to reinvent himself as a tee-to-green tactician – and he has in a big way – he’s still learning how to balance the professional with the personal. Back in the U.S. and committed to the Playoffs, opportunity is in the 28-seed’s grip to capture a third FedExCup title (and first in 10 years). He was the runner-up at Liberty National in 2009 and 2013, so he had little issue with the worst and the best of the course. Hideki Matsuyama … For different reasons, I’m chalking up each of his last three starts as anomalies, albeit consecutively, obviously. From the vagaries of The Open to his debut at TPC Southwind to what felt like a weird fit at Sedgefield (despite an endorsement in the Power Rankings that acknowledged three top 15s on the course), Liberty National sets up best of the four tracks because it caters to distance control and precision on approach. Plus, the 30-seed just doesn’t slump for long. Scott Piercy … No need to overanalyze a guy who does everything well. Terrific complement in every fantasy situation and in excellent position to advance to the TOUR Championship as the opening 26-seed. Bubba Watson … Presents coolly as a guy with nothing to lose as the 71-seed. It hasn’t been the most memorable of seasons with just three top 10s and no wins, but he’s in position to have a hot week like he has in so many editions of THE NORTHERN TRUST. Among his six top 15s in the tournament was a T13 at Liberty National in 2013, also a season in which he recorded three top 10s and didn’t record a victory. Ryan Palmer … Perfect in nine appearances in THE NORTHERN TRUST in the Playoffs, the last three of which resulted in a top 15, so he’s a proven hot starter. Also fresh off a pair of top 10s and another top 20 in his most recent five starts. The 24-seed is rising above his old profile as a streaky talent. As a 42-year-old who still can move it off the tee, he’s a consistent force who matches up well. Tony Finau … Filed under the category of cautiously optimistic, he’s deviated from consistently strong form over time to an all-or-nothing value, and that scares us. He doesn’t profile like that for long, and at least there’s good with the bad. At 16th in points, he’ll get to East Lake without much trouble, so there’s reason to invest in the opportunity to free-wheel it at Liberty National. Andrew Putnam … Since the PGA Championship, the 38-seed is 8-for-8 worldwide with a pair of top fives among four top 25s. He’s sixth on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting and 15th in putting: birdies-or-better. Charles Howell III … It’s always strange to think of him as a commodity at this time of year, but he’s back in form after a customary spring swoon. This one included a hip injury in May. Never bashful about taking advantages of the easiest tracks, he arrives 15th in points with a T23-T6-T22 burst in tow. Matthew Wolff … The locals are gonna love him, of course, and he’s held his own since the breakthrough victory at TPC Twin Cities. While he’s been busy, he’s still the shiny, new toy with everything to gain in his Playoffs debut. However, his first goal of making the cut as the 70-seed to advance might be his biggest challenge thus far as a professional. To steal the line from Chicago Cubs manager Joe Maddon, will Wolff permit the pleasure to exceed the pressure? Tyrrell Hatton … If he wasn’t inside the top 50 of the Official World Golf Ranking, he’d have been among my Sleepers in part because of that fact. Three top 10s among eight top 25s in his second straight season with a PGA TOUR card, the 27-year-old is 77th in points. Fades Bryson DeChambeau … The defending champion is seeded 18th despite a confounding few months of inconsistency blanketing consecutive top 10s a month ago. He’s also undergoing equipment changes. J.T. Poston … Watch, he’ll bogeyed his first hole in the opening round. I jest only because he went bogey-free en route to his breakthrough title at Sedgefield last week. It was tough to gauge his level of stress visually, but we should expect a letdown after the monumental achievement. Even though the objective will be to keep the pedal down and sustain form into his second Playoffs appearance – he opens 27th in points – the win was just his second top 25 in three months. What’s more, everything at this point is gravy. Shane Lowry … The conservative in me has to respect the banality of returning to competition after experiencing the thrill of winning The Open Championship near home. Not surprisingly, he pulled out early from two commitments since, but the lights have to go back on at some point. At 20th in the FedExCup, he’s in outstanding position to pay off the career achievement. For the record, he qualified for the Playoffs in 2016 but elected to play the European Tour. Phil Mickelson … If the NYC crowds can’t inspire him to end his extended slump, nothing will. He’s benefited by short rough and enough experience at Liberty National to feel as comfortable as anyone, not to mention a strong early portion of the season to sit 34th in points upon arrival, but the results haven’t been there for months. Gary Woodland … So much to love about the possibilities, but I want to see the 5-seed turn the page on the mini-slump that bridged his U.S. Open victory and birth of twin daughters. Jordan Spieth … Went in the books with the dubious distinction as one of the last victimized by the 54-hole/MDF cut provision at the Wyndham Championship. The rule ended at Sedgefield because it’s not in play during the Playoffs and it won’t continue in 2019-20. That he found himself in that grouping after sitting T12 at the midpoint reminds you of everything you need to know about his inconsistency all season. He’s 69th in points and he makes most cuts, so he sets up as nothing better than a contrarian if you can’t look away. Marc Leishman … No matter his opening position – this year 12th – the Aussie has been a notoriously slow starter in the Playoffs. He’s just 4-for-10 without a top 30 in THE NORTHERN TRUST. Sergio Garcia … The 65-seed hasn’t posted a top-50 finish in a full-field event in the U.S. in three months. He hasn’t appeared in THE NORTHERN TRUST in five years. This week’s commitment serves as his 15th start of 2018-19 and meets the membership minimum. It’s the fourth time in five seasons that he’s totaled exactly 15. Chez Reavie … A curious fit for Liberty National as the TOUR’s leader in fairways hit who also ranks T4 in proximity on approach. However, and although he’s the 14-seed, gamers have lost some faith after tumbling off the summit attained with victory at the Travelers in June. Kevin Na … Recently bothered by a sore neck, the 48-seed broke par in only one round at TPC Southwind (T43). It’s his only red number in seven rounds of a quiet summer since emerging victorious at Colonial. Brandt Snedeker … Simply put, and despite scoring 10-under 270 at Sedgefield, he didn’t deliver as the defending champion en route to a T39. Surprisingly, it was his putter that let him down, not his irons. He also missed the cut in 2013 at Liberty National. Seeded 33rd. Returning to Competition Jhonattan Vegas … Left the Barracuda Championship before his second round to attend the birth of his second child, Louis Alexander. He’s 80th in the FedExCup after a three-month drought, but he’s recorded three straight top 15s in THE NORTHERN TRUST. The 34-year-old elevated to a career season the first time the Nappy Factor took hold in March of 2016. Never underestimate its power. Notable WDs Paul Casey … The 8-seed just finished a three-week road trip with a T13 at Sedgefield, so he’s opted for rest and family time in advance of the BMW Championship. Rafa Cabrera Bello … Awaiting the birth of his first child. As the 59-seed, he’s in jeopardy of elimination. Henrik Stenson … If he didn’t open as low as the 85th seed, we could wonder if he’d appear, but he’s going to focus on prepping for the European Tour’s Scandinavian Invitation in his native Gothenburg, Sweden. It coincides with the TOUR Championship on Aug. 22-25. Sam Burns … As first noted in the Fantasy Insider for the week of the Barracuda Championship, he’s out indefinitely after breaking his ankle grabbing a rebound in a pickup basketball game. As the 89-seed, he cannot advance. Power Rankings Recap – Wyndham Championship Power Ranking  Golfer  Result 1  Webb Simpson  2nd 2  Brandt Snedeker  T39 3  Lucas Glover  T72 4  Billy Horschel  T6 5  Patrick Reed  T22 6  Hideki Matsuyama  MC 7  Scott Piercy  T36 8  Collin Morikawa  T31 9  Paul Casey  T13 10  Cameron Smith  MC 11  Rory Sabbatini  T6 12  Jordan Spieth  T78/MDF 13  Joaquin Niemann  T13 14  Martin Laird  MC 15  Sungjae Im  T6 Wild Card: Viktor Hovland  4th Sleepers Recap – Wyndham Championship Golfer  Result Bud Cauley  T22 Brice Garnett  T6 Doc Redman  MC Roger Sloan  T39 Sepp Straka  T39 Birthdays among active golfers on the PGA TOUR August 6 … none August 7 … Andrew Landry (32) August 8 … Webb Simpson (34) August 9 … Brett Wetterich (46); Curtis Luck (23) August 10 … Kenny Perry (59) August 11 … Morgan Hoffmann (30) August 12 … none

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The most exciting holes on the PGA TOUR require players to factor the potential benefit of a birdie or eagle against the chances of finding trouble and make decisions at key moments in competition. The Aon Risk Reward Challenge has highlighted such holes all season, rewarding the strategic decision makers whose deft analysis and execution have resulted in on-course success. Joaquin Niemann currently leads the season-long Aon Risk Reward Challenge standings. He has racked up 28 birdies-or-better on Challenge holes already this season, going for the green 76% of the time. It’s a calculated strategy that has paid off handsomely. “I tend to be a little more aggressive on these holes if I feel like I can find the right miss,” said Niemann. “If I know I can either get on, or near the green… or if I miss the green I can be in a bunker or have a chip that makes birdie still possible, I’ll go for it. I feel pretty confident in my short game that I can take the risk and still get up and down.” The numbers bear out Niemann’s philosophy: 78% of his strokes gained against the field on Challenge holes this season have come on shots around the green or on putts. Numerous players have seen their success on Aon Risk Reward Challenge holes springboard them to victory. In the final round of the Waste Management Phoenix Open, Brooks Koepka hit a strong tee shot in front of the green of the drivable par-4 17th. He pitched in for eagle, propelling him to a one-shot win. Daniel Berger put an exclamation point on his victory at the following week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, attacking the final green in two and making a 30-foot eagle putt for a two-stroke win. Both players are currently in the top 10 of the season-long Aon Risk Reward Challenge standings. Also in the top 10 of the Aon leaderboard is Louis Oosthuizen, whose tee shots on Aon Risk Reward Challenge holes have been the source of more than half of his strokes gained on the field. “A lot has to do on the day with the way you feel,” said Oosthuizen. “Are you comfortable? Where is the pin? … If you feel comfortable, then you can take it on.” The smooth-swinging South African has felt comfortable more often than not, going for the green more than 80% of the time this season on Aon Risk Reward Challenge holes. Having a winning strategy can be worth handfuls of shots every week on the PGA TOUR. A well-informed and prepared team surrounding a player is paramount, something that has aided Niemann’s decision making throughout the Challenge this year. “I have a new caddie this year with Gary Matthews and we work really well together,” said Niemann. “Obviously, things change day-to-day that may impact our strategy with pin placement or wind or just how my swing is that day. Gary has helped a lot and having our process in place has been helpful to put me in the lead of the Aon Risk Reward Challenge.” The myriad ways players can attack a golf course are often best revealed on risk-reward holes. Last season, despite ranking 187th on the TOUR in driving distance, Brendon Todd ranked sixth in total birdies made. Knowing when to maximize scoring opportunities can bridge the gap between shorter hitters and their longer competitors. “If it’s a situation where going for it can put me in a bunker or a hazard that brings par or bogey into play, then I’ll lay up to a comfortable wedge distance because my wedge play is one of the strengths of my game,” said Todd. “Understanding my strengths goes into the decisions on those holes.” For the players currently in the top 10 of the Aon Risk Reward Challenge, deft decision-making and execution off the tee has led to lower scores. More than 45% of the strokes gained against the field by the players in the top 10 have come off the tee. This week’s Aon Risk Reward Challenge hole, the 14th at Quail Hollow Club, is a short par-4 that will undoubtedly continue that statistical trend as it tempts players to drive the green. In the last two Wells Fargo Championships, about 60% of the field tried to drive the 14th green. Even with water protecting the left side, and bunkers guarding the front, those who were aggressive gained one-third of a stroke on the field. Leaving the tee shot in the front-right bunker on this hole is an excellent play, with players who do so averaging half-a-stroke under par since 2018. But what about the other 40%, who have elected to lay up at the 14th? Overall, players who lay up off the tee have averaged right around even par. The riskier lay up to the left side of the hole brings the water hazard into play, but has yielded lower scoring averages than laying up to the right. The multitude of choices and potential outcomes make the 14th one of the most intriguing holes this week at Quail Hollow Club. The Aon Risk Reward Challenge continues to highlight these exciting holes, and the players with the best preparation and decision making on them, all season long. To learn more about the season-long competition, click here.

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