Expert Picks: BMW Championship

Brendon Todd has a 54-hole lead for the second time since the PGA Tour’s return to play and is up 1 shot after shooting a 1-under 69 on Saturday in the FedEx St. Jude Invitational.

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History tells the story of the past, it doesn’t predict the future, but lessons learned shape its direction. That reality prompted significant changes to the Presidents Cup in 2015. The United States still prevailed, albeit by the slimmest of margins, 15-1/2 to 14-1/2. But now, in what could be labeled as reverse psychology, the biennially stronger team will be attempting to defend its title at the foot of the Statue of Liberty. There will be no escaping the reminder of one’s pride in playing for his flag at Liberty National Golf Club alongside New York Harbor. It’s exactly the kind of pressure the Internationals need to apply as they enter this road game with a record of 1-9-1. Because the Presidents Cup is a team competition with match-play scoring, an open mind is encouraged when accepting the ranking of the participants. More on the course, the format and other details beneath the full-field ranking. Went 2-1-1 with Patrick Reed at the 2016 Ryder Cup, but Spieth should draw Thomas at some point now. Not that it’ll matter on a squad as deep as the U.S. Captain America at Liberty National in the Presidents Cup. Yes, please. Oh, and he’s playing well. Loves to remain busy, so expect the adrenaline to continue to flow. An anchor. Arguably the most in form upon arrival with three top 10s among six consecutive top 25s, so it would surprising if he sits out a session. It’s the Aussie’s fourth appearance (4-8-3). T9 at Liberty National doesn’t hurt, but this squad is loaded with his buddies — and potential partners. Solid all year, too. First-timer. Nothing like making a splash as the most recent major champion and winner of the FedExCup. Figures to go out with Spieth, but options are everywhere. The Aussie is now a cornerstone for the visitors in his third appearance. Also played Liberty National in both 2009 and 2013. Recently dominated the field at Conway Farms. One of three South Africans on the squad. Expect him to partner with Grace after they went 4-0-0 as a team two years ago. Oosthuizen went 1-3-0 with Schwartzel in 2013.    First-timer. Debuts with fellow former FSU teammate Koepka, so that’s a natural pairing. The formidable duo could be the lockdown team of the competition.     First-timer. Poised to forge a new, long-term partnership as one of America’s future stars, so look for pairing with Berger. Filthy second half of 2017 illustrates monster stats. Went 5-0-0 in the losing cause in 2015. Teamed with fellow South African Louis Oosthuizen in every two-man session. Expect the same. No reason to break what’s not broken.     Fourth consecutive appearance. He’s 6-7-1 overall but 0-4-1 in foursomes. The experienced South African could help balance a scuffling and tired Matsuyama in four-ball.     Already his third appearance. Cited fatigue for lackluster FedExCup Playoffs performance, which presents a challenge for his captain, but still figures to carry any partner tee-to-green.     The 39-year-old is making his fourth appearance. Enjoying an outstanding 2017 despite the absence of a victory. As youngsters emerge, he slides into mentor role. Despite individual success, he’s just a combined 2-7-0 in four-ball but 4-1-1 in foursomes in the Ryder and Presidents Cups. As a result, expect experienced partners. International’s elder statesman at 37 years of age. Eighth straight appearance (13-17-5). Aussie had four different partners en route to 0-2-2 in 2015. He’s 1-3-1 with Matsuyama.     First-timer. Tee-to-green tactician finished T15 at THE NORTHERN TRUST in 2013. Might align with Kuchar the best with their similar styles. Needed a captain’s pick to extend his record of never missing an edition. Now 47, the oldest in the competition is like a de facto playing assistant captain leading by example. First-timer. Flexible partner as a phenomenal putter, he’s insurance in four-ball despite bentgrass greens. Could earn foursomes nod on the third day with a good start.     First-timer. Relatively quiet second half didn’t deter him from qualifying for TOUR Championship. Fantastic putter makes for a wonderful partner. Longer off the tee than advertised.     He was surprised to be a captain’s pick, but he belongs here. Responded with T9 at Conway Farms. One of the more outwardly cerebral; could partner with anyone as a result.  First-timer. The fearless 40-year-old secured entry via a captain’s pick despite losing steam following a torrid summer stretch. Played Liberty National in 2009 and 2013.     First-timer. Captain’s pick from Argentina has just one top 25 since June. Likely partner is Vegas as they’re the only two native Spanish speakers. Neither is a strong putter.     First-timer. All or nothing for most of the year, but the stakes are different now. Terrific tee-to-green.     First-timer. Just one top 10 in the last 11 months, but it was a biggie. THE PLAYERS champion has battled back discomfort all year. Only South Korean on the team. POWER RANKINGS: PRESIDENTS CUP RANK PLAYER COMMENT Liberty National isn’t new to half the field that competed in THE NORTHERN TRUST in 2013, but only four of those 12 are Internationals. Seven overall were in play when the course debuted for THE NORTHERN TRUST in 2009, including three Internationals. Those who are returning will see primarily the same setup that they tackled in the opening leg of the FedExCup Playoffs four years ago, except the par-4 fifth hole is now the starting line for the Presidents Cup. The par-5 sixth is the second hole this week, and so on. Holes 1-4 on the course will play as Nos. 15-18. This means that the outward nine is a par 38 that boasts all three of Libery National’s par 5s. The inward side is a par 33 with three par 3s (including the last). Only the seventh hole (originally No. 11) is at a different yardage than how it played in 2013. The par 3 is down 25 yards and now tips at 225 yards. Of course, overall par matters not in this competition, nor does Liberty National’s official length of 7,328 yards. However, while the rerouting was determined to shift the most eye-catching holes to critical points for every match, the swings in momentum are more likely early, especially in foursomes. Thursday’s opening session will be comprised of five matches of foursomes (also known as alternate shot). Five four-ball matches will follow on Friday. Saturday consists of two sessions of four matches each, first foursomes and then four-ball. The format requires at least two starts per golfer during the first four sessions. The final day will line up all 12 on each side in singles. In 2015, a reduction of four team matches lowered the total points up for grabs to 30. Thus, the winning team will need to score at least 15-1/2. Another twist that took effect in the last edition is that matches that are tied after 18 holes result in halves for every golfer in those matches. The heat wave that was summer’s last gasp will come to an end as the Presidents Cup begins. After a daytime high of 80 degrees on Thursday, even better conditions will command the remainder of the week. Cooler air, primarily sunny skies and but a light wind out of the north are forecast. Come to think of it, glorious views of the Statue of Liberty and the New York City skyline on the horizon just might inspire the home team. When you’re as deep at the United States by comparison, you can enjoy the view. NOTE: The Captain’s Pick debuts at FantasyGolf.PGATOUR.com for the competition. Rob will be writing nightly recaps and previews specifically for fantasy gamers. You’ll find his primer for The Captain’s Pick here.

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In Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf for the Mexico Open at Vidanta, I wrote that the goal is not to use Jon Rahm. He qualified for my roster as a obvious defensive measure, but the plan is sit him unless he’s contending for the title on Sunday. If he cranks out 25 points in R1, R2 and/or R3, so be it. The risk doesn’t warrant those rewards, no matter how likely you expect them against the field. RELATED: Horses for Courses | Sleeper picks The Mexico Open at Vidanta is the Spaniard’s second start of Segment 3 (T27, Masters). If he follows his schedule from the super season of 2020-21, he’d be making four more starts in this phase. However, even if he appears only at, say, the PGA Championship and the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, if you burned him at the Masters and will again this week, you’d be stuck with just one remaining. Ask yourself now how you’d rank the timing of his impact. Just like when Tiger Woods was a fixture in fantasy, the most challenging decisions in the extinct Yahoo! Format was how to ration 10 starts. Rahm isn’t at that level but he’s on the short list for whom we’re compelled to consider the possibilities to maximize – and leverage – his playing time. Here’s the gist… 1) You can play Rahm in all four rounds at Vidanta Vallarta – assuming he makes the cut, of course – and absorb the push with your opposition because a high percentage of it will do the same. In highly competitive situations, it’s a fair and reasonable exercise. OR 2) Because round-by-round scoring in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf is muted – unless, again, Rahm tosses up bogey-free, field-low 64s every day – stow him on your bench for the first two rounds. If he’s among at least five who make the cut, keep him benched until his position at the conclusion of three rounds. If in contention, burn the start as a defensive measure for the FedExCup bonus points. No matter what you do, including abstaining entirely so as not to put yourself in a position to be tempted in favor of long-range goals, it’s the middle of the season. Heck, I slow-played the big guy in Segment 4 last season and it proved to be the difference-maker in the FedExCup Playoffs because my nearest opponent, Ben Everill, had exhausted Rahm’s allotted starts one tournament too soon. POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD Patrick Reed (+125 for a Top 20) … When you read in the Power Rankings that he was teased for Draws and Fades, you likely also figured that his odds to be the Wild Card were somewhere in the vicinity of (-10000). Thus, boom. Certainly, on cachet alone, he demands analysis, but he’s the reverse split for what projects to matter at Vidanta Vallarta, and he hasn’t connected for a top 25 in a full field since a co-runner-up at Bermuda on Halloween. I’d draw a direct line from his heavyweight status in that field to this one but it’s been six months and it’s not that simple. Even contrarian investors are scratching their heads at his inflated value this week. Pass. DRAWS Kevin Streelman (+175 for a Top 20) … If you ever wondered why I’ve lamented for an obnoxious period of time why he’s Kryptonite, use his last start at Harbour Town as proof. There he was on a track where he missed only one cut in nine tries prior. His record includes three top 10s and another top 20. He also was comin’ in hot since the start of the Florida Swing. Lo and behold, despite an endorsement in this space, he failed to cash. But I’m back on board in Mexico because I’m doubling down on the strong(-enough) form and discounting the occasional missed cuts. If there’s a tightrope separating short- and long-term confidence, he walks it, and we should know better, but I just can’t quit Streels. Davis Riley (+225 for a Top 20) … I’d prefer a top-40 or make-the-cut prop but the rookie already has demonstrated a level of comfort near the lead. In fact, he runs towards it on Moving Day as he’s T8 on the PGA TOUR in R3 scoring, but the learning curve has put him in his place more often in finales. It’s to be expected but with a P2 (Valspar) and a T4 (with Will Zalatoris at Zurich) as recent objects in the sideview mirror, hop on the bandwagon and attach emotion. It’s how we apply our own learning experience. Pat Perez (+300 for a Top 20) … What’s that you say? Paspalum?? Thank you. That’ll be all. (OK, so that’s getting off easy because he did miss the cut at Mayakoba in November, but he may still have been feeling the effect of a foot injury just prior to it. More recently, he’s 7-for-9 since the Farmers.) Callum Tarren (+500 for a Top 20) … Ease into a make-the-cut line here, but don’t be that surprised if he pops for more. The rookie from England landed a T5 on the paspalum in Puerto Rico, and he finished T7 at the Korn Ferry Tour’s Veritex Championship two weeks ago before making the cut (with fellow Brit, David Skinns) in New Orleans. He’s already one of the more proficient tee to green, and now his confidence is elevated. Wyndham Clark David Lipsky C.T. Pan Brian Stuard Odds sourced on Tuesday, April 26 at 6 p.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm. FADES Chez Reavie … He’s still splitting fairways with the best of ‘em, but his approach game has cost him time and again and it’s not like his putter is bailing him out. The 40-year-old bunter already is borderline unownable in full-season formats. Lanto Griffin … He’s gone five consecutive starts without a top 50 and his pedestrian tee-to-green game is uninspiring. He’s more valuable in the long-term, anyway. Adam Long … After a couple of months of failing to turn cuts made into top 25s, he finished T12 at the RBC Heritage thanks to a wicked-hot week with the putter. He missed only once inside 10 feet and was perfect on 65 looks from eight feet and in. The small greens at Harbour Town cater to that kind of performance, and he is a terrific putter, but it’s in the minority of expectations because ball-strikers and shot-makers tend to box out for most positions at and near the top of that leaderboard. The same narrative applies this week but not because the greens at Vidanta Vallarta are similarly sized. They’re unfamiliar, so good putters project to lag, pardon the pun. A payday is a fair expectation, and through 2021, he was consistent in delivering strong weekends when he made it, but the advice now is to invest fractionally at most. Rafa Cabrera Bello Brice Garnett J.T. Poston Scott Stallings Matt Wallace RETURNING TO COMPETITION Sebastián Muñoz … By the time he pierces the paspalum on Thursday, it’ll have been a month since his last competitive action (T26, Match Play). The Colombian was committed to the RBC Heritage until an injured back took precedent. The good news is that he’s connected six paydays in advance of his trip to Vidanta Vallarta. He’s also a good fit on paper for the test. At the same time, you likely wouldn’t have a need to put faith in his fitness in any situation other than an aggressive DFS ploy. NOTABLES WDs Daniel Berger … If not for a sore back, he’d have been a favorite this week. It’s the same malady that thwarted his title defense at Pebble Beach in early February, but he’s fared predictively well since. Just 65th in the FedExCup, however. Christiaan Bezuidenhout … Tag-teamed a T32 with fellow South African Charl Schwartzel in NOLA and now sits 94th in the FedExCup. Looking ahead, while not yet officially exempt, Bezuidenhout has been able to plan on a trip to the PGA Championship via his Official World Golf Ranking, but at 66th, he’s just outside the upcoming bubble for entry into the U.S. Open. Kevin Chappell … Since his status demotion (for failing to meet the terms of his medical extension), he’s 3-for-4 with a pair of top 20s. Remember, he wasn’t certain that he was going to continue to pursue playing time if he didn’t fulfill the medical, so his is an emerging compelling story. Of course, it also makes sense to table a long-term decision until the conclusion of the regular season, but we’re not often treated to peeks behind that curtain, so we can’t forget about it now. Meanwhile, it’s a bummer that he’s out at Vidanta Vallarta. His tee-to-green profile would have positioned him automatically for a make-the-cut prop. Nick Hardy … Placed a career-best T21 with Curtis Thompson at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and now ranks 190th in the FedExCup. Neither rookie has found his stride, so it was a timely injection of something positive. Charley Hoffman … This is his fourth early WD of the season. The first three were as a result of an injured back, and given his extended slump, it’s fair to attach it to either a continuation of the discomfort or a bad habit picked up while trying to play through it. Whatever the case, the 45-year-old is 180th in the FedExCup and not yet exempt for next season. (Worst case, and if he wanted, he’d be eligible for a career earnings exemption since he’s currently 36th all-time.) RECAP – ZURICH CLASSIC OF NEW ORLEANS POWER RANKINGS Power Ranking Team Result 1 Scottie Scheffler & Ryan Palmer T18 2 Cameron Smith & Marc Leishman T21 3 Billy Horschel & Sam Burns 2nd 4 Xander Schauffele & Patrick Cantlay Win 5 Max Homa & Talor Gooch T21 6 Danny Willett & Tyrrell Hatton T21 7 Collin Morikawa & Viktor Hovland T29 8 Sergio Garcia & Tommy Fleetwood MC 9 Keegan Bradley & Brendan Steele T4 10 Sungjae Im & Byeong Hun An T14 Wild Card Bubba Watson & Harold Varner III T4 OTHERS CONSIDERED Team Result Joaquin Niemann & Mito Pereira WD Will Zalatoris & Davis Riley T4 Adam Hadwin & Adam Svensson MC Matthew NeSmith & Taylor Moore T4 Sahith Theegala & Beau Hossler MC SLEEPERS Golfer (Bet) Result Graeme McDowell & Seamus Power (+4000 to win) MC Brian Stuard & Russell Knox (+6600 to win) T21 Aaron Rai & David Lipsky (+8000 to win) T4 GOLFBET Bet: Sungjae Im & Byeong Hun An (+300 for a Top 10) Result: T14 BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE MEMBERS OF THE PGA TOUR April 26 … J.B. Holmes (41) April 27 … none April 28 … none April 29 … Justin Thomas (29) April 30 … none May 1 … Chris Couch (49); Sepp Straka (29) May 2 … none

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