THE NORTHERN TRUST, Round 4: Leaderboard, tee times, TV times

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort & Golf Club might be the most underrated and highly respected host course on the PGA TOUR. Unscientific polls and rhetoric support it, but the eclectic mix of champions of the Valspar Championship furnishes the evidence. Wily veterans comfortable on tough tracks like Copperhead can define most of the winners and the last five represent as many nations. With the colors on the flags of Australia (John Senden, 2014), the United States (Jordan Spieth, 2015), South Africa (Charl Schwartzel, 2016), Canada (Adam Hadwin, 2017) and England (Paul Casey, 2018), the tournament is positioned properly with its title sponsor. Identifying the connective tissue of the victors is more complicated, or at least not as obvious. From the power of Gary Woodland (2011) and Casey, to the methodical of Retief Goosen (2003, 2009), Jim Furyk (2010) and Schwartzel, to the world-class short games of Luke Donald (2012), Spieth and Hadwin, Copperhead is fair. It’s the highest compliment you can give any test, thus the praise in kind. So, to cast a net over all with the intent of capturing a common characteristic, consider resolve. No doubt all of the aforementioned are tremendous talents and a few are household names among casual fans, but collectively they don’t comprise a Who’s Who as much as a What’s What. Substantive, steadfast and solid all. Now, fine-tuning your selection does require critical and quantitative analysis. A-listers such as Dustin Johnson and Jason Day are scheduled to compete, but they’re not short-listers for One & Doners at Copperhead. The course is an equalizer for which no one is immune. Each will stand out later and often. Sergio Garcia sits atop my Power Rankings and deserves your slot. The only reason you don’t invest is because you already had earlier in the season or, like me, you’re leaning on the consistently strong Patrick Reed, twice a runner-up at Copperhead. Reed’s soft hands check another box of the empirical, while his tenacity and grit complement your confidence in him. Frankly, and simply, the rest of the considerations either make sense another time – Webb Simpson, Ryan Moore, Jon Rahm, Brandt Snedeker and even defending champion Paul Casey among them – or they’re better suited as the tail of the tandem in two-man formats. The latter grouping includes Schwartzel, Hadwin and surging Jim Furyk. Seriously. Steer clear of the youth and under-experienced when the tough gets going. Henrik Stenson, Louis Oosthuizen and my unfortunate pick at THE PLAYERS, Rafa Cabrera Bello, also populate my Power Rankings, but the timing is off for each right now. FUTURE POSSIBILITIES NOTE: Select golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held in 2018-19. The numerical values in parentheses represent the order of relative confidence of where to use each golfer if multiple sites are listed (e.g. 1 for strongest, 2 for next-strongest and so on). To present weighted confidence in real time, numerical values will not change all season no matter how many tournament remain listed for each golfer. All are pending golfer commitment. Keegan Bradley … Memorial (5); Travelers (4) Rafa Cabrera Bello … Wyndham (4) Paul Casey … Valspar (7; defending); WGC-Match Play (8); Masters (2); Wells Fargo (9); Travelers (1); TOUR Championship (3) Jason Day … WGC-Match Play (11); Masters (4); Wells Fargo (6 defending); PGA Championship (3); U.S. Open (10); Open Championship (9) Jason Dufner … Valspar (4); New Orleans (1); Charles Schwab (6); Memorial (5); U.S. Open (2); Wyndham (8); TOUR Championship (10) Sergio Garcia … Valspar (9); Masters (6); Open Championship (5); TOUR Championship (2) Branden Grace … Heritage (1); Valero (3); Byron Nelson (5); U.S. Open (4) Bill Haas … WGC-Match Play (8); Heritage (4); Charles Schwab (2); Wyndham (6) Adam Hadwin … Valspar (2); John Deere (5) Brian Harman … Charles Schwab (1); Travelers (5); John Deere (4) Russell Henley … Masters (3) Charley Hoffman … Masters (4); Heritage (7); Valero (3); Charles Schwab (6); Travelers (1) Dustin Johnson … Masters (8); PGA Championship (11); Memorial (10); U.S. Open (1); WGC-St. Jude (6); TOUR Championship (7) Zach Johnson … Valero (4); Charles Schwab (5); John Deere (1); Open Championship (2); TOUR Championship (8) Chris Kirk … Valero (3); Charles Schwab (2) Kevin Kisner … Heritage (3); New Orleans (5); Charles Schwab (2); Memorial (6) Russell Knox … Heritage (2) Ryan Moore … Valspar (3); Valero (7); Masters (13); Memorial (11); Travelers (6); John Deere (8); Wyndham (2); TOUR Championship (9) Kevin Na … Valspar (6); Charles Schwab (3); Wyndham (5) Louis Oosthuizen … Valspar (3); WGC-Match Play (1); Masters (2); U.S. Open (5); PGA Championship (4) Jon Rahm … Masters (5); Charles Schwab (1); TOUR Championship (7) Patrick Reed … Valspar (1); Masters (5; defending); PGA Championship (4); U.S. Open (3); Travelers (7) Webb Simpson … Heritage (6); Wells Fargo (7); Charles Schwab (8); Travelers (9); Wyndham (1) Brandt Snedeker … Masters (10); Heritage (6); Charles Schwab (7); U.S. Open (5); Travelers (9); Wyndham (1; defending) Brendan Steele … Valero (8); Wells Fargo (9); Travelers (4); Reno-Tahoe (3) Henrik Stenson … Valspar (3); Masters (5); PGA Championship (4); Open Championship (6); Wyndham (8); TOUR Championship (7) Kevin Streelman … Valero (9); Heritage (5); Memorial (4); Travelers (7) Bubba Watson … WGC-Match Play (6; defending); Masters (5); Memorial (7); Travelers (2; defending); TOUR Championship (8) Gary Woodland … Memorial (4)

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Aloha 2021! And aloha 2020. After a U.S. Open contested in September and the Masters in November, I’m all for the normalcy of some tasty waves and cool buds, other fantasy players, to kick off the 2021 portion of the PGA TOUR schedule. I’m excited to hear Mark Rolfing’s facts about Maui and the Plantation Course at Kapalua. I’m excited to be jealous of the views, surf and weather in the dead of winter. I’m excited to complain about who I have on my bench and not in my lineup. Fantasy golf and real golf are back and I’m rested, healthy and ready to go! RELATED: Power Rankings | Expert Picks | The First Look Justin Thomas returns to Kapalua 2.0 to defend his championship one year after picking up the first win on the Coore-Crenshaw redesign and second overall. He’ll be joined by 41 others who will get four chances at the Plantation course to see who pockets the first $1.34 million winner’s check of the $6.7 million prize pool. The lowest total also adds 500 FedExCup points to the ledger for their triumph. Thomas will look to join Australians Stuart Appleby (three straight) and Geoff Ogilvy in defending the crown on Maui. Only Sergio Garcia and Daniel Chopra have won on their debut so that will give the seven first-time visitors hope! Playing almost 7,600 yards up and down the mountain, year 2 should give those an advantage who played the redesign last year. Before last year’s gusts and rain, the winning score hadn’t dipped below 19-under since 2008 so scoring is a must on this par-73. Only three Par-3 holes are on the card so tee-to-green play is the key this week. Wide fairways and massive greens will help in that department, plus there’s no water on the course. Hole the makeable ones and avoid the squares to contend! Recent Event Winners Stats Recent Winners and Notables 2020: Justin Thomas (-14, 278) Defeated Patrick Reed and Xander Schauffele in a playoff to win for the second time. … Becomes the fourth multiple event winner. … 10th consecutive American winner. … Increased his victory total on the Pacific Rim to seven. … Led the field with 24 birdies. … In six visits he’s circled 20 or more birdies five times. … Worst birdie output is 18 in 2018. … Joins the list of the last five winners either first or second Putting: Birdie-or-Better Percentage. … Joins the list of the last six winners to finish top three Strokes-Gained: Tee-to-Green. … Entered the week on FIRE with two wins and five of his last six results in the top 10. Notables: 2015 champion Reed fired 66, the round of the day Sunday, and was the last man knocked out of the playoff on the third playoff hole. … 2019 champion Schauffele was bogey-free thru his first 43 holes; led after 36 and by one after 54 holes before being eliminated on the first playoff hole. … Patrick Cantlay (4th) posted 68, second best on Sunday, to cash his first top 10 in two starts. … Debutant Joaquin Niemann (T5) posted the co-lowest round of the week with 66 in Round 1. … 2018 champ Dustin Johnson (T7) streak of top 10 finishes is now at eight. … Collin Morikawa (T7) posted all four rounds in the red on his debut. … Jon Rahm (10th) hits the top 10 for the third time in three tries. … Only six players were 10-under or better. … Strangely, five of the top 14 were first-timers at Kapalua. … Preferred lies in play the final 54 holes. … Gusty NNE winds were on the menu all week and scoring was the worst since 2007. 2019: Xander Schauffele (-23, 269) Tied the course record with 62 in Round 4 to win by a shot on the last event before the redesign. … Sat five back of Gary Woodland (not entered this year) entering Sunday before posting his career best round … Holed out twice for eagle in the final round. … Posted 24 birdies (2nd) for the week. … Four of his five career victories are in limited field, no cut events. … Joins the last six winners by not finishing in the top 10 of Driving Accuracy. … Last of five consecutive winners to place in the top three in Bogey Avoidance. … Rolled into Maui after winning WGC-HSBC Champions and picking up T8 at Hero World Challenge. Notables: Justin Thomas (3rd) circled the most birdies on the week (25), fired 65 in the final round, but was still five back. … Johnson (T4) was the only player in the top 10 with a round above 72 as he posted 74 in Round 2. … Marc Leishman (T4) picked up his second consecutive top seven payday here. … In his second start, Bryson DeChambeau (7th) bettered his solo 26th paycheck from 2018. … The last time Webb Simpson entered he was T8 (-13). … Jon Rahm backed up his solo second from 2018 with T8. … Debutant Kevin Tway (not entered) shot 66 to lead after Round 1. … Debutant Rory McIlroy (T4; not entered) was the only first-timer in the top 10. … Winds were gusty before a perfect final round. … Top 15 players 10-under or better. 2018: Dustin Johnson (-24, 268) Trounced the field by eight shots to become the third multiple winner. … Sat one off the 36 hole lead before 66-65 blew the doors off the contenders. … Leading money winner and has made the most eagles in event history. … 65 and 66 were the best and co-second best rounds of the week. … At 33 he’s the only winner in the last six who wasn’t in their 20s. … Of the last six winners thru 2020, all have finished T7 or better in Par-4 Scoring. …. Won TNT and blew a seven shot lead at the WGC-HSBC Champions so he was in decent nick. Notables: Jon Rahm (2nd) made 21 birdies on debut. … Hideki Matsuyama (T4) closed with 66 for his third top five in three starts. … Marc Leishman (T7) led after 18 and 36 before coming undone with 76 in Round 3. … Top 14 players all 10-under or better. … Wind gusts of a minimum 30 MPH daily yet only five rounds from the top 20 finishers were OVER par. Key stat leaders Top golfers in each statistic on the 2019-2020 PGA TOUR are listed only if they are scheduled to compete this week. * – Top 10 finish here since 2016 or past champion Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green 1 *Justin Thomas 2 *Hideki Matsuyama 3 *Jon Rahm 4 *Sergio Garcia 5 *Collin Morikawa 7 *Xander Schauffele 9 *Dustin Johnson 10 Scottie Scheffler (debut) 11 *Tony Finau 12 *Patrick Cantlay 15 Daniel Berger 16 *Webb Simpson 18 Harris English 19 *Bryson DeChambeau 20 Viktor Hovland (debut) 23 *Joaquin Niemann 26 *Patrick Reed Putting: Birdie-or-Better Percentage 2 *Webb Simpson 3 *Justin Thomas 4 *Bryson DeChambeau 5 *Patrick Reed 6 Daniel Berger 7 *Dustin Johnson 13 Scottie Scheffler 22 *Patrick Cantlay 24 *Jon Rahm 26 * Xander Schauffele 27 Cameron Smith 28 Sungjae Im (debut) 29 *Tony Finau Scrambling 1 Daniel Berger 2 *Xander Schauffele 3 *Brendon Todd 4 Kevin Na 6 Harris English 10 Abraham Ancer (debut) 11 *Jon Rahm 12 *Webb Simpson 16 *Kevin Kisner 17 *Bryson DeChambeau 19 *Hideki Matsuyama 21 *Patrick Reed 23 Lanto Griffin 25 *Justin Thomas 29 Carlos Ortiz (debut) 31 Sebastian Munoz

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