Cut prediction: THE NORTHERN TRUST

Although it’s never hosted a sanctioned event for professionals, Erin Hills Golf Course isn’t entirely foreign land to the field of 156 at the U.S. Open. Eighteen entrants competed in the 2011 U.S. Amateur. Half advanced to match play, including Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Russell Henley, Harris English and Peter Uihlein. Among those who failed to advance, Brooks Koepka, Emiliano Grillo and PGA TOUR rookie C.T. Pan are the most notable. Still, there’s only so much calming of the nerves that limited experience as an amateur six years ago can have in a major championship. So, just like a couple before it this year, this edition of this weekly staple focuses solely on specific statistics that project success on the 7,741-yard behemoth northwest of Milwaukee. NOTE: For each of the stats below, all in the field who rank inside the top 25 on the PGA TOUR are cited. * – In the Power Rankings Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green Always relevant, its value increases when unfamiliar greens serve as the targets. Hitting full shots is a constant. Being in tune with distance and accuracy is evidence of confidence. Greens in Regulation With generous fairways, the trouble is pronounced around greens. Dastardly bunkers are poised to swallow wayward approach shots. The final leaderboard may very well consist of those who lead the field in GIR. Scrambling While the winner is expected to land several strokes under par, lest we forget that this is a U.S. Open. Salvaging pars after finding trouble can feel like finding birdies and can score like half-birdies. So, scrambling supersedes bogey avoidance as the preferred angle. Strokes gained: putting may be more statistically relevant in retrospect, but with virtually zero experience on the greens at Erin Hills, going in focusing on the up-and-down game is more sensible since putting is baked into it. Par-5 Scoring The USGA has taken heat recently, but it again has the opportunity to showcase which of the world’s best golfers deserve to be crowned the 117th champion of the national open. It will not hurt the optics that Erin Hills is the first par 72 to host a U.S. Open since Pebble Beach in 1992. And while all four par 5s can stretch over 610 yards – it’s possible for the 18th hole to reach 675 yards – those are the holes that will help generate churn on the leaderboard. Expect the USGA to dial in yardage based on wind, hole locations and relevant difficulty of holes before and after each.

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PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO When reviewing where allegiances lie at THE PLAYERS, you may be surprised that the most-owned golfer isn’t the defending champion (Jason Day, 10th overall), the Masters champion and all-time earnings leader at TPC Sawgrass (Sergio Garcia, third) or the FedExCup points leader (Dustin Johnson, second). Instead, it’s Rickie Fowler at 65.0 percent. Yes, Fowler won THE PLAYERS in 2015, but he still garnered more than four times the love of Day this week. So, if you were to cite the apples-to-apples comparison of the last two winners here, you’ll quickly understand that confidence extends beyond that. Yet, what’s most impressive is that Fowler resides No. 1 over the deepest field in golf. Fowler is among nine who populate at least one-third the lineups submitted. This includes tournament debutant Jon Rahm (seventh), who continues to shatter expectations and molds. The exponential devotion for Fowler over Day is one thing, but note that the faith in Hideki Matsuyama in ninth is more than double that of the defending champ’s. Notables who aren’t included in either section below include Phil Mickelson (13th, 9.1 percent), Jason Dufner (18th, 5.6 percent), Kyle Stanley (20th, 5.1 percent) and Henrik Stenson (T24, 3.4 percent). NOTE: Rob’s Rating refers to where our Fantasy Insider slotted a golfer in his Power Rankings. Golfers in the Power Rankings and outside the top 10 in most owned PGA TOUR Fantasy One & Done presented by SERVPRO Do I or don’t I? That was likely the thought regarding Sergio Garcia when deciding if he’d be your pick for THE PLAYERS. Entering the season, the Spaniard arguably makes the most sense to holster for this tournament. Then he went out and won the Masters. How dare he disrupt the balance of our universe. Still, and not surprisingly, Garcia slots first in shares at 16.2 percent. That feels a little low but only when you ignore the quality and depth of the field. No doubt his cut would be smaller if the Masters was just one or two weeks ago. Certainly the separation since he converted his first major title assuaged our concern in the long-term. Speaking of worry, at least mildly, defending champion Jason Day is 11th overall at 2.7 percent, but that makes sense. It represents both reasonable confidence and the strategy of just allowing him time to heat up and perhaps even connect for victory again. That he’s started 2017 slow only supports my decision to pencil him in for the BMW Championship. Other notables outside the top 10 include Adam Scott (13th, 2.1 percent), Kevin Kisner (14th, 1.7 percent), Francesco Molinari (18th, 1.2 percent), Henrik Stenson (19th, 1.2 percent) and Phil Mickelson (22nd, 0.6 percent).

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On a day to remember in Atlanta, Patrick Cantlay captured the FedEx Cup in dramatic fashion at the Tour Championship Sunday, a victory that is worth $15 million for the 29-year-old Californian.

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