Expert Picks: the Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide

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2019 RBC Canadian Open, End of Round 1. Course scoring averages: Overall: -0.59 strokes per round Morning wave: -0.82 Afternoon wave: -0.36 Current cutline: 83 players at -1 or better (T59th position) Top 3 most likely projected cutlines: 2 under par: 26.7% 1 under par: 22.8% 3 under par: 20.8% Top 10 win probabilities: Keegan Bradley (1, -7, 12.1%) Matt Kuchar (T7, -5, 8.6%) Rory McIlroy (T25, -3, 8.4%) Webb Simpson (T15, -4, 6.1%) Shane Lowry (T2, -6, 5.2%) Sungjae Im (T2, -6, 3.9%) Henrik Stenson (T15, -4, 3.9%) Erik van Rooyen (T2, -6, 3.5%) Adam Hadwin (T7, -5, 3.3%) Jimmy Walker (T7, -5, 2.5%) NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the RBC Canadian Open, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.  

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KIAWAH ISLAND, S.C. – Cameron Tringale made a 10 at the par-5 16th hole. Carlos Ortiz quadruple-bogeyed 17. And Marc Leishman double-bogeyed 17, bogeyed 18, and missed the cut by one. The last five holes may as well have been a meat grinder at the 103rd PGA Championship at the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island, and almost no one was spared. RELATED: Oosthuizen, Mickelson share lead | DJ headlines big names to miss cut “Mentally, I don’t think I did anything wrong,” said Branden Grace (71, 3 under), who was at 6 under and leading the tournament when he stepped onto the tee at the fearsome par-3 17th hole. “I stood up there, I picked my target, I hit the shot that I wanted to, but it just didn’t come off.” His ball found the water, and he made double bogey. He bogeyed the 18th to fall two behind co-leaders Phil Mickelson (69) and Louis Oosthuizen (68) – each of whom also bogeyed 18. Dustin Johnson bogeyed 15 and shot 74 to miss the cut by one. Adam Scott (72) bogeyed 15 and 16 to miss by a shot, and Xander Schauffele bogeyed 15 and 18 to finish with them at 6 over. Ian Poulter (70, even) could only laugh about how hard it was at the end. He was cruising at 6 under through 12 holes, but about to turn into the teeth of the wind when he saw a scoreboard in the distance that said he was 6 under and threatening the course record. “And I just started laughing to myself,” he said after going 4 over for his last six. “Like, who in the world would write that and put that on a board with that last five holes to play?” Even with some of the tees moved up, he added, “It’s a brutally difficult finish (into the wind). Straight in, very slightly at times just off the left, and you’re aiming at targets which if you pull it very slightly, you’re in the dunes, and if you cut it, you’re wet or on the beach. It’s intense.” The scariest of the fearsome five finishing holes was 17, which played the hardest in the second round. Mickelson bogeyed it, as did Brooks Koepka (71, 4 under). Kevin Streelman (72, 2 under), who hit the green and two-putted from over 77 feet to par it, called 17, “One of the hardest par-3s we’ve ever played in professional golf right now.” The hole played to a 3.682 stroke average and was No. 1 in difficulty Friday. The 15th was the second hardest at 4.552, and the par-3 14th was the third hardest at 3.539. The 18th hole played to a 4.526 average and was fourth toughest on the day. For the week, 17 and 18 are playing the toughest and second toughest holes on the course, respectively. Harry Higgs (71, 1 under) bucked convention Friday. He hit the green on 17 and 18 before holing trans-continental birdie putts of 59 and 64 feet, respectively. He said it bought him a few extra hours sleep Saturday, and his brother was going to make him a cocktail to celebrate. Charley Hoffman (70, 1 under) did him one better, going 2 under on holes 14-18. “To be completely honest we got lucky,” Hoffman said of a slight let-up from the wind late in the day. “As soon as we made that turn, it did die a little.” They were the exceptions to the rule; nearly everyone died a little on the last five holes.

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