Leaderboard: Na leads after 54 holes at Colonial

The PGA TOUR is back to its stroke-play format this week with the Mexico Open at Vidanta, which will be played at Vidanta Vallarta in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. While the format is back to normal, it’s another unusual week for golf betting. Since this is an inaugural event, there’s no course history to go off of when selecting players. Three of the top-25 players in the world rankings will be teeing it up: Jon Rahm (No. 2), Abraham Ancer (No. 20) and Tony Finau (No. 25). In addition, the field includes 14 of the top 100 players. This is impacting the golf odds to win, as Rahm is a massive favorite. As of Tuesday, he’s +450 to win after opening at +500. And despite such high odds, Rahm is still a huge betting favorite this week at the BetMGM online sportsbook. The 27-year-old has the highest handle at 22.1%, which is well ahead of Gary Woodland, who has the second-highest handle at 8.1%. With no course history to turn to, the best betting strategy this week appears to be just going with the best player in the field. In 10 PGA TOUR events this season, Rahm has seven top-25 finishes to go along with four top 10s, but for his standards, it’s been a pretty underwhelming year. He lost his No. 1 world ranking to Scottie Scheffler, and aside from a T9 finish at the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play, his best finish since January is a T10 back in February at the WM Phoenix Open. This could be what Rahm needs to get back in the winner’s circle for the first time since last year’s U.S. Open. Current Handle & Tickets Handle Jon Rahm – 22.1% Gary Woodland – 8.1% Abraham Ancer – 7.1% Tony Finau – 5.6% Kevin Na – 4.3% Tickets Gary Woodland – 6.2% Abraham Ancer – 6.1% Jon Rahm – 5.7% Tony Finau – 4.8% Kevin Na and Cameron Champ – 4.7% Ancer has seen his odds change quite a bit this week. After opening at +2000, he’s now +1600. With that being said, he may face some extra pressure playing in front of a ton of fans in his home country. In terms of value plays, Aaron Wise (+2200) and Sebastian Munoz (+3300) could be worth considering. Wise has 2.8% of the tickets and 4% of the handle, while Munoz has 4.1% of the tickets and 3.7% of the handle. * Visit BetMGM.com for terms and conditions. 21+ years of age or older to wager. BetMGM is available in AZ, CO, DC, IA, IN, IL, LA, MI, MS, NJ, NV, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV, or WY only. All promotions are subject to qualification and eligibility requirements. Paid in free bets. Free bets expire in 7 days from issuance. Minimum deposit required. Excludes Michigan Disassociated Persons. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO, DC, LA, NV, WY, VA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI), 1-800-GAMBLER (IN, NJ, PA & WV), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA) or call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), call or text the Tennessee REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN) or call 1-888-777-9696 (MS). Sports betting is void where prohibited. Promotional offers not available in Nevada.

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2021 Sony Open in Hawaii, Round 1 Scoring Conditions: Overall: -1.68 strokes per round Morning wave: -1.29 Afternoon wave: -2.07 Current cutline (top 65 and ties) 71 players at -2 or better (T55) Top 3 projected cutline probabilities: 1. 4 under par: 37.4% 2. 3 under par: 37.4% 3. 2 under par: 11.6% Top 10 win probabilities: 1. Joaquin Niemann (T1, -8, 17.1%) 2. Jason Kokrak (T1, -8, 10.3%) 3. Webb Simpson (T10, -5, 9.3%) 4. Daniel Berger (T4, -6, 8.3%) 5. Peter Malnati (T1, -8, 4.8%) 6. Hideki Matsuyama (T23, -4, 3.8%) 7. Si Woo Kim (T4, -6, 3.7%) 8. Billy Horschel (T10, -5, 3.0%) 9. Collin Morikawa (T23, -4, 2.9%) 10. Patton Kizzire (T4, -6, 2.0%) NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live "Make Cut", "Top 20", "Top 5", and "Win" probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Sony Open in Hawaii, or to see how each golfer's probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model's home page.

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