Fantasy golf advice, One & Done: Valero Texas Open

Since there isn’t a clear-cut favorite or a horse for the course who’s in blistering form entering the Valero Texas Open, the pressure is on front-runners to keep the opposition at bay. For those of you in this position, the concern is quieted if Billy Horschel is still on your board. The veteran of eight appearances hasn’t won the tournament, but he’s earned your better judgment with a pair of third-place finishes, one fourth and a T11 among six cuts made at difficult TPC San Antonio. The key word there is difficult. Only if you’re new to the PGA TOUR are you unaware how much the former FedExCup champion relishes a challenge. It feeds his confidence off the tee where he lets others make mistakes, but he’s even better with his irons. Oh, and he’s currently eighth in Strokes Gained: Putting. As a native of Florida, Horschel is most comfortable on bermudagrass putting surfaces, even if they’re overseeded, which is the case this week. The undulations are equalizers. His experience here could be the dagger. Among all of the non-winners at TPC San Antonio, he best fits the profile of what a champion embodies. If Horschel isn’t on his game, TPC San Antonio will get annoying and quickly. Its length demands driver, but if the big stick isn’t cooperating, it’ll take all of his patience to salvage a round. This is how Greg Norman intended it. The Shark was legendary tee to green, so it’s hardly a surprise that the course that he designed reflects what he did best. If you’re in pursuit and you’re going to assume that you’re going to get stymied by Horschel, you’re in terrific position. Lucas Glover, Jason Kokrak and Ryan Palmer are three strongmen who presents as threats. To select Glover is to invest almost entirely on his form throughout 2018-19. He missed the cut in his only prior trip to TPC San Antonio (in 2015), but two rounds of experience never hurts no matter the result. Kokrak fulfills the converging trends, if mildly. He’s never been more consistently strong over this most recent stretch of time, and he’s 5-for-7 at TPC San Antonio with a pair of top 15s, albeit it’s been four years since the latter. Palmer is an example of what happens when there isn’t synergy with the driver. He’s hung up five top-15s in this tournament, but he’s also finished outside the top 50 thrice, twice for a missed cut. That may seem academic and familiar for most veterans on any track, but we already know him to thrive or dive with the 1-metal. Whereas Horschel is the low risk-high reward, Palmer is the medium risk-medium reward. Rickie Fowler, Tony Finau, Matt Kuchar and Jordan Spieth are wasteful in our format this week. Stick with reliable sites for each. How Spieth performs this week will seriously impact his probability at the Masters despite one of the best modern records at Augusta National. Watch him this week specifically with that in mind. No doubt there’s a contingent that’s been holding its breath for the VTO’s all-time earnings leader, Charley Hoffman, to break out of his funk in time for TPC San Antonio. Because he hasn’t, at least enough, slot him with the same mindset as Palmer. Because the course will beat up a few notables, two-man gamers are advised to reach a bit for your tandem this week. Consider Aaron Baddeley, D.J. Trahan and Sung Kang. FUTURE POSSIBILITIES NOTE: Select golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held in 2018-19. The numerical values in parentheses represent the order of relative confidence of where to use each golfer if multiple sites are listed (e.g. 1 for strongest, 2 for next-strongest and so on). To present weighted confidence in real time, numerical values will not change all season no matter how many tournament remain listed for each golfer. All are pending golfer commitment. Byeong Hun An … Memorial (1) Daniel Berger … Travelers (1) Tony Finau … Valero (5); Memorial (2) Rickie Fowler … Masters (2); Wells Fargo (6); PGA Championship (9); Memorial (5); U.S. Open (10) Brian Harman … Charles Schwab (1); Travelers (5); John Deere (4) Russell Henley … Masters (3) Charley Hoffman … Valero (3); Masters (4); Heritage (7); Charles Schwab (6); Travelers (1) J.B. Holmes … Wells Fargo (5) Billy Horschel … Valero (2); New Orleans (3; defending); Wyndham (6); TOUR Championship (1) Si Woo Kim … Heritage (1) Chris Kirk … Valero (3); Charles Schwab (2) Matt Kuchar … Masters (6); Heritage (2); Charles Schwab (7); Memorial (1); Open Championship (8) Martin Laird … Valero (5); Reno-Tahoe (2) Ryan Moore … Valero (7); Masters (13); Memorial (11); Travelers (6); John Deere (8); Wyndham (2); TOUR Championship (9) Ryan Palmer … Valero (2); Charles Schwab (4) Jordan Spieth … Masters (1); PGA Championship (7); Charles Schwab (5); Memorial (13); U.S. Open (4); Travelers (9); Open Championship (6); TOUR Championship (8) Brendan Steele … Valero (8); Wells Fargo (9); Travelers (4); Reno-Tahoe (3) Kevin Streelman … Valero (9); Heritage (5); Memorial (4); Travelers (7) Jimmy Walker … Valero (2); Byron Nelson (6)

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