The Leading Edge with Michael Breed: How to Hit a Draw

Drive for show, putt for dough. We’ve all heard it before but the numbers suggest you better do both well this week at the Sanderson Farms Championship. With the Country Club of Jackson hosting for the ninth consecutive season we have the luxury of a dive deep into the numbers of previous winners in our quest to maximize our fantasy or betting goals this week. John Fought’s late 2000’s redesign melded the two nines into a par-72 that can stretch to 7,461 yards. One of the longer courses on the schedule, it still gives up plenty of low scores to the players on song. Bermudagrass returns to the menu this week. Champion is on the 6,200 square feet (on average) putting surfaces and will push 13 slick feet on the Stimpmeter. The rough is a combination of 419 Bermuda and Zoysiagrass at two inches so recovery shots are playable, but not maybe ideally controllable. The average winning total over the previous eight editions hovers at 19 under and the tournament scoring record was established on 22 under last year by Sam Burns. Will Zalatoris also set the course record (61) last year and there were 47 bogey free rounds. Seven players were 20-under or better. The streak of six consecutive first time winners was broken in the 2020-21 season and extended last year with Burns. The only playoff was in the 2019-20 season. Of the eight champions, six were aged 20-29 and two were 40 and 41. Key Statistics Only players listed are competing this week; click stat headline for additional players; Stats from 2021-22 completed season. SG: Off the Tee With some of the tighter fairways on TOUR (just 28 acres total) being able to play from the short grass to control approach shots is paramount. The last four winners have ranked first, first, fourth and second in this category and that sets the table for scoring chances. Those of you who are curious for KFT graduates stats please click here and navigate. SG: Putting Bermuda greens pushing 13 feet on the Stimpmeter will keep the players attention until the putt disappears into the hole. Before last season the previous seven winners gained 49% of their strokes on the greens. The last two winners were T1 GIR so they didn’t fall into the upper end of this category. The previous six winners all registered in the top seven. Country Club of Jackson ranks in the top 10 annually for most three putts and putting inside five feet. Par-5 Scoring Different angle this week as it relates to the field. Of the four par-5 holes, three play 584 yards or deeper including both on the front nine. More power rather than precision needed this time around. Of the eight winners, seven registered in the top nine and the worst of the bunch was T12. Putting: Birdie or Better Conversion Percentage As shown above, putting is a key stat in a shootout. Time to take advantage of those GIR and get circles on the card! There aren’t many rounds above par annually from the top players this week so go ahead and get all the birdies you can handle. The last three years the cut has been 5-under, 3-under and 3-under. Better get low! The Bottom Line Tournament favorite Sam Burns (Win: +1000; Top 5: +225; Top 10: +100; Top 20: -190; Top 40: -350) comes up on three of the four lists above and is defending his title. While some caution may be needed given his Presidents Cup participation and possible fatigue, he can’t be ignored as a player in all formats this week. You’ll also notice Trey Mullinax (Win: +4000; Top 5: +750; Top 10: +350; Top 20: +170; Top 40: -125) pops up three times and might represent value in your line ups as a point of difference. Interestingly blast from the past veteran Rory Sabbatini (Win: +15000; Top 5: +2500; Top 10: +1200; Top 20: +550; Top 40: +200) pops up twice. Feeling lucky this early in the season? Might provide some value in DFS or top 40 markets. As always don’t forget to also look at Horses for Courses, and Rob Bolton’s Sleepers for extra value and the Power Rankings for the top of the board considerations. Responsible sports betting starts with a game plan. Set a budget. Keep it social. Play with friends. Learn the game and know the odds. Play with trusted, licensed operators. CLICK HERE to learn more at HaveAGamePlan.org

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DUBLIN, Ohio — Tiger Woods got off to a slower start than he would have liked Thursday at the Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide. That had more do with a stopwatch than a scorecard. Ryan Moore opened with five birdies in seven holes and never missed a fairway after the first one, posting a 7-under 65 for his best start in his 14th appearance at Muirfield Village. He was one shot ahead of Jordan Spieth, who chipped in for birdie, chipped in for par and holed a 35-foot eagle putt. Woods made a pair of late birdies to salvage a 70 in his first round since missing the cut at the PGA Championship. He played his back nine in a foursome with Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Rose and a rules official in a cart timing them because they were so far out of position. “We were on the clock most of the back nine,” Woods said. “That made things a little more complicated.” Getting caught up wasn’t easy with various tee shots in water hazards, though it was obvious how far behind they were. Spieth, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas were in the group ahead of them, and McIlroy hit his tee shot on the par-4 second into a backyard. With no official nearby, he had to walk 300 yards back to the tee to hit again. That took time. Still, walking off the fourth green, the group of Woods, DeChambeau and Rose still had not reached the third tee. Golf still is measured by score, and Moore had the lowest on a rain-softened Muirfield Village. Only two of his seven birdies were longer than 10 feet, and the only time he came close to a bogey was on his opening hole, where he saved par with a 6-foot putt. He was among 22 players who broke 70, and only 44 players broke par despite the soft conditions. Phil Mickelson, using two drivers this week to go after longer tee shots on a half-dozen holes, opened with a 70. Spieth looked as though he couldn’t miss for the longest time. On his second hole, the par-5 11th, his wedge came up so short on a soft green that it spun off the front. He chipped in from 50 feet for birdie. Another chip from thick rough caught the slope on the back of the par-5 15th green and rolled down to 3 feet for a birdie. He went out in 32, made an 8-foot birdie putt on No. 3 and then had consecutive holes that illustrated how his round was going. On the par-3 fourth, his tee shot was buried in the slope of a mound above the bunker. With his feet well below the ball, he hooked it out onto and across the green into more rough, and then chipped in for par. On the par-5 fifth, his hybrid caught the right side of the green and he rolled in the long eagle putt. Spieth took only 22 putts for the round. And then his luck ran out with a tee shot that plugged into the sand left of the green on the par-3 eighth, leaving him two options: go at the pin and run off the green into rough, or aim away from the flag and leave a 60-foot putt for par. He chose the latter and came inches within making it. “Sooner or later, it was going to bite me,” Spieth said with a smile. Even so, he had no complaints. “Six under around Muirfield I’d take any day of the week, no matter what form you’re coming into it with,” he said. “I felt like I hit more fairways today, gave me some more opportunities, and the putter stayed hot.” Thomas, in his first tournament since the Masters because of a bone bruise in his right wrist, showed plenty of rust in his round of 71. McIlroy had a 75 with two double bogeys, both from tee shots either lost (No. 15) or out-of-bounds (No. 2). Anirban Lahiri, Marc Leishman and Martin Kaymer were at 67. Woods made birdies on all but one of the par 5s. His regret was a few loose iron shots that led to bogey, especially on the 13th when he hit 9-iron from the fairway into a bunker that led to a careless bogey. But he finished strong — eventually — and while 10 players from his side of the draw broke 70, he wasn’t too far behind. At least on the leaderboard. “That was frustrating, because the last eight holes we were on the clock,” Woods said. “The group ahead of us … JT doesn’t take a lot of time, Rory plays quick and Jordan was 7 under. So they were obviously playing fast. And we were obviously not.”

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WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS, W.Va. — Webb Simpson shot a 9-under 61 for a one-stroke lead over Whee Kim after the first round of A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier on Thursday. Simpson posted his career-best score after shaking off a two-hour weather delay with six holes left in his round. Kim had back-to-back bogeys on the front nine on the Old White TPC, and then ran off five birdies over a seven-hole stretch. The South Korean had a career-high 10 birdies overall. Teenager Joaquin Niemann of Chile was another stroke back at 7-under 63 and Kelly Kraft was at 64. Phil Mickelson shot 66 in his first tournament since the U.S. Open, when he intentionally violated golf rules by hitting a moving ball on the 13th green in the third round. He later apologized.

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