Marc Leishman, Cameron Smith aim to defend home turf at World Cup of Golf

You hear the traditional wisdom all the time – it’s difficult to follow a great round of golf with another great round. While this notion is intuitively appealing, it could also be a product of confirmation bias: whenever a golfer plays poorly following a low round, golf analysts and observers are quick to use that wisdom as an explanation, thus confirming the theory. However, when a player goes low on consecutive rounds, it’s not used as evidence to discount the theory. As usual, the truth reveals itself in the data.  Using round-level data on the PGA TOUR from 2000-2016, we first calculate each player’s baseline relative-to-field scoring average on a 3-year rolling basis (this will be the measure of each player’s typical performance at any given point in time). Then, for each round played, we calculate the difference between a player’s relative-to-field score that day, and their baseline relative-to-field score; let’s refer to this as “personal strokes-gained.â€� Example: If Phil Mickelson typically beats the field by 1 shot, and then plays a round where he beats the field score by 4 shots, his personal strokes-gained would be 3. We want to look at the relationship between a player’s performance in a given round to his performance in the round that follows. For our purposes, we classify rounds into different “bins”; for instance, one bin is defined as the set of rounds where a player had a personal strokes gained of 8 or more. The other bins are defined similarly — rounds with personal strokes gained of 6-8 shots, 4-6 shots and so on down to -8 or worse shots. We’ll then assess the distribution of personal strokes gained depending on which bin a player’s previous round belonged to. Sticking with the Mickelson example, where we have assumed Phil typically beats the field by 1 shot, suppose he beats the field by 5 shots following a round when he beat the field by 4 shots? In the first of these two rounds, Phil’s personal strokes gained was 3 shots, so he enters the “2-4 shots” bin, and the object of interest to us is then how Phil plays in the next round (in this case above, he had a personal strokes gained of 4). We do this for all players and rounds and are able to obtain “conditional distributions” of personal strokes gained, where we are conditioning on how a player played in his previous round (as defined by the bins). In lay terms, we are simply looking at the personal strokes-gained of the set of players who all fell into the same bin in their previous round, and looking for any differences between these sets of players (ex: do those who had 2-4 personal strokes gained in their previous round play better than those who had 0-2 personal strokes-gained in their previous round?). To start, the average personal strokes-gained for each bin is shown below: A very clean relationship emerges; if you’ve played well in the previous round, it is more likely, on average, you will play well in the following round. The analogous statement holds for poor play. This is not all that surprising; it simply means that form, good or bad, tends to last more than a single round. Although, there clearly is a tendency to regress to the mean at work here as well. The next figure gives a better sense of the entire distribution of personal strokes-gained conditional on playing at a certain level in the previous round: The horizontal bar in each box is the median of the data, the upper and lower bounds of each box is the 75th percentile and 25th percentile respectively, and the ends of the lines are the maximum and minimum values excluding outliers (where an outlier is defined as 1.5* the 75th percentile, and 1.5* the 25th percentile). Note that the most extreme rounds are contained in the middle bins; this is expected as these bins contain by far the largest number of rounds, and consequently there is the greatest potential for an outlier to emerge. In this final figure we report a transition matrix, reporting the probability of moving from one bin to the next in consecutive rounds. There is a lot of interesting information here, so take a long look: To ensure you are interpreting this correctly, the top left box states the following: given a player’s personal strokes gained was 8 or better in their previous round, there is a 1.35 percent chance that their personal strokes-gained is negative 8 or worse in the next round. It is surprising to us how well-defined the relationship is between a player’s performance in one round to the next. For example, consider the column for bin (2-4); as you move from the bottom row to the top row we are looking at the set of players who played increasingly better in their previous round, and the probability of entering the (2-4) bin is increasing monotonically, just as expected. Finally, the answer to the initial question: there is no evidence supporting the claim that it is more difficult to follow up a great round with a good round. A big reason this claim makes sense intuitively is that it is simply very unlikely to shoot a really good round (say, 6 or more strokes better than usual). Therefore, it’s unlikely that an exceptional round will be followed by another exceptional round — but this is always the case irrespective of a player’s performance in the previous round. Brothers Matt and Will Courchene grew up in a Canadian household full of golf fanatics. In 2016, they launched a DataGolf blog in hopes of contributing fresh and unbiased insights to the sport. Matt, a PhD student at the Vancouver School of Economics, focuses on applied econometrics and causal inference, while Will, who has a Masters of Economics from the University of Toronto, focuses on statistical modeling and data visualization.

Click here to read the full article…

Click here to read the full article…

AUGUSTA, Ga. – Patrick Reed attended college less than 5 miles away from Augusta National, just down Berckmans Road that cuts through the heart of the Masters free parking lots on the west side of the course. He helped deliver two NCAA golf titles to Augusta State. He should be the hometown hero. Who doesn’t love a local-boy-makes-good story? Yet as he walked to the first tee on the biggest day of his life, it quickly became clear that the patrons were more enamored of his playing partner, the engaging Northern Irishman whose only tie to the area is his appearance every April, which in previous visits ended in either heartbreak or frustration.  A few minutes earlier, Rory McIlroy had drained a lengthy birdie putt on the practice green, causing cheers loud enough that a security officer had to warn his fans, “There’s a group on the first tee, so just be mindful of that.â€� There were no such loud roars for Reed as he prepped for his opening tee shot. “Had a really welcoming cheer from the fans,â€� he would diplomatically recall later, “but then when Rory walked up to the tee, you know, his cheer was a little louder.â€� Reed wasn’t surprised. He understood – Augusta National reveres its history, and on Sunday, fans wanted to see history made, with McIlroy in line to become the sixth player to complete the career Grand Slam. Reed, starting the day three strokes in front, was merely seeking his first major. His story wasn’t as compelling. Captain America – the man of the people just 18 months ago when he beat McIlroy in Singles to lead the U.S. to the Ryder Cup — would not win the popularity contest, even in his old college stomping grounds. It turned out to be the best thing for the new Masters champ. Holding the 54-hole lead at Augusta National is among the biggest pressure-cookers in golf. McIlroy tried to reinforce that notion the day before, essentially saying it was Reed’s tournament to lose. But when Reed woke up Sunday morning, he switched on Golf Channel as usual, and watched as pundit after pundit explained why McIlroy would win Sunday. Only one analyst picked Reed to win – Notah Begay III.  “Thanks, Notah. Appreciate it,â€� Reed said. “You’re my boy.â€� Few expected him to win. Few were cheering for him. Reed channeled those two thoughts and came to one conclusion: No expectations equals no pressure. “Seemed like everyone else was saying how great I was playing all week, how very impressed they were,â€� explained Reed, who opened with three rounds in the 60s to become the outright leader the previous two days. “But come Saturday night and Sunday morning, they were like, ‘Oh, well, even though we said all these great things about how he’s playing, we think Rory’s going to win.’ “You know, going into that, it just was like, ‘OK, that takes a little bit of that pressure off of me and I can just go out and try to play golf.’ That kind of fit into the motto that I was trying to do all week – just go out and play golf.â€� Then Reed added: “It’s definitely harder to do that than I thought.â€� Indeed, this was no easy stroll to the Green Jacket. Reed opened with a bogey, and McIlroy birdied the second. Reed was fortunate to still maintain the lead, as McIlroy missed a 4-foot eagle attempt. Still, the lead had been quickly reduced. McIlroy, though, was off his game. Bogeys at the third and fifth holes were ominous signs that turned into critical mistakes. He never could generate any pressure on his Ryder Cup rival, eventually becoming a non-factor on the back nine en route to a final-round 74. “Momentum is a huge thing, especially in final rounds,â€� McIlroy said. “You look at what Jordan and Rickie did. They got on a roll and I didn’t.â€� Ah, yes, Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler. Two of Reed’s American teammates – and in Spieth, his key partner in crime against the rest of the world. If McIlroy couldn’t keep Reed honest, they would. Spieth, nine shots behind to start the day, tore up Augusta National, shooting an 8-under 64 – the lowest final round in Masters history. Reed, a constant leaderboard watcher, was well aware of Spieth’s rapid climb into contention. At 5:31 p.m., Spieth drained a 33-foot birdie putt at the 16th hole to tie for the lead. A minute earlier, Reed hit his second shot into the par-5 13th. The ball came up short but hung precariously on the bank. It was a fortunate stroke of luck, a sign that perhaps this was Reed’s day. Par there. Fifteen minutes later, Reed birdied the 14th to regain the lead. Spieth was running out of holes. It was an electrifying charge, but he simply started too far back. “I almost pulled off the impossible,â€� Spieth said. Fowler, meanwhile, finished with a birdie on the final hole, closing to within one shot and forcing Reed to par the 18th. It was Fowler’s sixth birdie in his final 11 holes, but he had started too late.  “We did everything we could,â€� Fowler said. “And Patrick went out there and outplayed all of us this week and he earned it.â€� “I knew the lead was going to shrink,â€� Reed said. “It’s the flows of golf. You’ve just got to know how to handle it.â€� In the end, it was a battle – and that’s exactly what Reed needed. No easy strolls to the Green Jacket. He needed the kind of atmosphere he thrives on in team events. He needed to be tested. He needed the inner fire. The doubters. The cheers for others. The opportunity to prove people wrong. “To see his intensity week after week – I can’t do it,â€� said Bubba Watson, who was the first player to hug Reed as he walked off 18. “I don’t have the mindset, first of all, and I don’t have the energy to do it. It’s pretty impressive to watch.â€� “Patrick, he’s not scared,â€� added Fowler. “I think you guys have seen that previously from the Ryder Cups and the way he plays. He’s not scared on the golf course. He’ll play aggressive. He’ll play his game. He won’t back down.  “I don’t necessarily see him as someone that backs up and will let you come back into the tournament. You have to go catch him.â€� He’s not scared on the golf course. He’ll play aggressive. He’ll play his game. He won’t back down. Reed said Sunday’s round was the most mentally challenging of his career. The pressure, he said, was different than in team events. There weren’t 11 other players who could pick him up if he had a bad day. He was on his own this time. In the end, though, he would finally receive his proper due from the fans. They stood and cheered as Reed celebrated on the 18th green with his wife Justine. They reached out and offered their hands in congratulations as he made his way to the scoring area to sign for the 1-under 71. They applauded as he slipped on the Green Jacket. History would have to wait. Patrick Reed just wanted to go out and play golf. 

Click here to read the full article…