Officialsportsbetting.com Golf Betting Win probabilities: THE CJ CUP @ NINE BRIDGES, Round 1

Win probabilities: THE CJ CUP @ NINE BRIDGES, Round 1

Conditions were difficult during the first round of THE CJ CUP @ NINE BRIDGES, where the 78 players in the field averaged a score of 1.3 strokes over par. Interestingly, 3 of the 4 par-5s played over par, a rare occurrence at PGA TOUR stops.  Our pre-tournament probabilities indicated that Justin Thomas was the class of this field by a wide margin. We estimated Thomas to be about two strokes better per round than the average PGA TOUR professional, while Brooks Koepka was the second-highest rated golfer at +1.6 strokes relative to an average professional. This may be surprising to readers, given that Koepka is fresh off being voted the PGA TOUR Player of the Year. Here is a closer look at Thomas’ and Koepka’s performances since 2014 (Thomas above; Koepka below): Indicated on these graphs are a player’s average adjusted (for field strength) strokes-gained at each event (their “True SG�). Thomas has shown incredible consistency over the past year and a half, which is why the model favors him over Koepka. The top of the leaderboard after Thursday’s first round is mostly comprised of golfers in the middle or bottom of the skill distribution in this field. As a consequence, no single player is capturing a significant share of the win probability. Here are our current top 10 win probabilities: It’s not common for three of the top four win probabilities after Round 1 to belong to players outside of the top 10 of the leaderboard. None of the top golfers played particularly well on Thursday, but our model expects them to make up the ground they’ve ceded over the next three rounds. NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut,� “Top 20,� “Top 5,� and “Win� probabilities every five minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10,000 simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of THE CJ CUP @ NINE BRIDGES, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page. Follow on Twitter

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KLM Open
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Connor Syme-145
Joakim Lagergren+300
Francesco Laporta+1800
Ricardo Gouveia+2800
Richie Ramsay+2800
Fabrizio Zanotti+5000
Jayden Schaper+7000
Rafael Cabrera Bello+7000
David Ravetto+12500
Andy Sullivan+17500
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Final Round 3-Balls - P. Pineau / D. Ravetto / Z. Lombard
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN
David Ravetto+120
Zander Lombard+185
Pierre Pineau+240
Final Round 3-Balls - G. De Leo / D. Frittelli / A. Pavan
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN
Andrea Pavan+130
Dylan Frittelli+185
Gregorio de Leo+220
Final Round 3-Balls - J. Schaper / D. Huizing / R. Cabrera Bello
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN
Jayden Schaper+105
Rafa Cabrera Bello+220
Daan Huizing+240
Final Round 3-Balls - S. Soderberg / C. Hill / M. Schneider
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN
Marcel Schneider+150
Sebastian Soderberg+170
Calum Hill+210
Final Round 3-Balls - F. Zanotti / R. Gouveia / R. Ramsay
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN
Fabrizio Zanotti+150
Ricardo Gouveia+185
Richie Ramsay+185
Final Round 3-Balls - O. Lindell / M. Kinhult / J. Moscatel
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN
Oliver Lindell+125
Marcus Kinhult+150
Joel Moscatel+300
Final Round 3-Balls - F. Laporta / J. Lagergren / C. Syme
Type: Final Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN
Francesco Laporta+125
Joakim Lagergren+200
Connor Syme+210
Major Specials 2025
Type: To Win A Major 2025 - Status: OPEN
Bryson DeChambeau+500
Jon Rahm+750
Collin Morikawa+900
Xander Schauffele+900
Ludvig Aberg+1000
Justin Thomas+1100
Joaquin Niemann+1400
Shane Lowry+1600
Tommy Fleetwood+1800
Tyrrell Hatton+1800
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US Open 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Scottie Scheffler+275
Bryson DeChambeau+700
Rory McIlroy+1000
Jon Rahm+1200
Xander Schauffele+2000
Ludvig Aberg+2200
Collin Morikawa+2500
Justin Thomas+3000
Joaquin Niemann+3500
Shane Lowry+3500
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The Open 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Scottie Scheffler+400
Rory McIlroy+500
Xander Schauffele+1200
Ludvig Aberg+1400
Collin Morikawa+1600
Jon Rahm+1600
Bryson DeChambeau+2000
Shane Lowry+2500
Tommy Fleetwood+2500
Tyrrell Hatton+2500
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Ryder Cup 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
USA-150
Europe+140
Tie+1200

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From California to Stillwater, Fowler and Wolff formed connection that will be on display at SeminoleFrom California to Stillwater, Fowler and Wolff formed connection that will be on display at Seminole

Alan Bratton liked the low numbers. Scores are usually the first data that coaches consult when seeking new recruits, but these were outliers that indicated Bratton was looking at special players. Rickie Fowler was 15 years old and still wearing braces when he shot 62 to win Southern California’s high school championship in 2004. He was the first freshman since Tiger Woods to win that title. RELATED: Fans at home will be able to contribute to TaylorMade Driving Relief’s COVID-19 relief efforts thanks to PGA TOUR Charities’ online and Text-To-Give donation platforms powered by GoFundMe Charity. Click here to donate. MORE: TaylorMade Driving Relief to benefit COVID-19 relief efforts | Live golf set to return | Seminole Golf Club ready for its close-up This was an earlier time, though, before the widespread adoption of smartphones and social media, so it was still possible for such a sensation to stay a secret. Fowler hadn’t competed much outside California, so Bratton, then the assistant golf coach at Oklahoma State, thought he was ahead of the curve when he watched Fowler at the Western Junior. He kept his distance to avoid tipping off other coaches. There was just one problem. Fowler won the tournament. With a final-round 64, including a birdie on 18, for a one-stroke win. The secret was out. A few years later, Bratton heard about another special player going low. The tip came from a recruit who casually mentioned about playing a tournament where the winner shot 61 and won by 13. Bratton, who had become Oklahoma State’s head coach in 2013, needed to know the name of the kid who dusted the field by more than a dozen strokes. It was Matthew Wolff. While their stints in Stillwater, Oklahoma, were separated by a decade, ties run deep between Cowboys. Fowler returns to his alma mater often, playing golf with each member of the team and giving the players his phone number. Wolff’s team had dinner at Fowler’s house when they were in town for a tournament. Fowler was on hand to congratulate Wolff when he won. So it made sense for Fowler and Wolff to be teammates when the TaylorMade Driving Relief match was in the works. They’ll need to tap into their penchant for shooting low scores if they want to succeed May 17 at Seminole Golf Club. Their opponents in this four-ball skins game – Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson — also have something in common. They’re the current and former World No. 1s. “I’ve seen some fan reaction saying how much of a favorite Rory and DJ are, so Matt and I are going in as underdogs,â€� Fowler says. “We’re ready to bring the upset.â€� Team chemistry could be an equalizer for the former Cowboys, though McIlroy revealed recently that he and Johnson had discussed teaming for this year’s Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Fowler and Wolff met when Fowler returned to campus for homecoming. “We clicked right off the bat,â€� Wolff says. For obvious reasons. Both developed unique swings while growing up on public golf courses in Southern California. For Fowler, it was on the Murrieta Valley Golf Range, which co-owners Bill Teasdall and Barry McDonnell ran out of a single-story portable building on land that used to be a horse stable. McDonnell became Fowler’s first teacher. Wolff spent his formative years taking lessons from George Gankas at Westlake Golf Course, a 5,000-yard layout with artificial-turf mats on its driving range. In junior golf, both players heard critics say they should change their unique swings. Neither heeded the advice. Bratton liked that each player developed his own swing and wasn’t afraid to stick to it, even in the face of criticism. He says he could recruit both players with his ears, not his eyes, because of the quality of the sound at impact. “I love to look for natural swings,â€� Bratton says. “It doesn’t mean it has to be different, but I certainly want a kid who understands how to make adjustments on their own. You see a lot of kids who are trying to do something that someone else told them to do. There’s incredible instruction out there, but sometimes kids don’t understand or try to do something that’s not natural to them.â€� Though Fowler can’t match Wolff’s swing speed, Bratton says there are similarities to their playing styles, as well. “Once they make up their mind, they wind up and go,â€� says their former coach. “They look like they’re having fun when they play.â€� For each fan donation that is made using a Mastercard, Mastercard has announced a donation match program through which they will match the first $250,000 of all fan donations made through the PGA TOUR Charities’ GoFundMe platform. Click here for more.

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Monday Finish: Lanto Griffin completes unlikely journey in HoustonMonday Finish: Lanto Griffin completes unlikely journey in Houston

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OBSERVATIONS It’s been an emotional start to the season: Lanto Griffin, 31, earned his tearful first victory in his 33rd start on TOUR. Scott Harrington pushed him with a 5-under 67 that gave him a T2 and greatly solidified his status on TOUR. Both have played through family tragedy, with Griffin just 12 years old when he lost his father to cancer and Harrington more recently stepping away from golf to help his wife with her own cancer battle. (She is one year into remission.) “I’m so happy for him,� Griffin said of Harrington’s T2. “Scotty’s story and journey is similar to mine.� Harrington, meanwhile, was happy for Griffin, whose win came just two weeks after Cameron Champ’s emotional victory at the Safeway Open. 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