Leaderboard: Quicken Loans National

Conditions were difficult during the first round of THE CJ CUP @ NINE BRIDGES, where the 78 players in the field averaged a score of 1.3 strokes over par. Interestingly, 3 of the 4 par-5s played over par, a rare occurrence at PGA TOUR stops.  Our pre-tournament probabilities indicated that Justin Thomas was the class of this field by a wide margin. We estimated Thomas to be about two strokes better per round than the average PGA TOUR professional, while Brooks Koepka was the second-highest rated golfer at +1.6 strokes relative to an average professional. This may be surprising to readers, given that Koepka is fresh off being voted the PGA TOUR Player of the Year. Here is a closer look at Thomas’ and Koepka’s performances since 2014 (Thomas above; Koepka below): Indicated on these graphs are a player’s average adjusted (for field strength) strokes-gained at each event (their “True SG�). Thomas has shown incredible consistency over the past year and a half, which is why the model favors him over Koepka. The top of the leaderboard after Thursday’s first round is mostly comprised of golfers in the middle or bottom of the skill distribution in this field. As a consequence, no single player is capturing a significant share of the win probability. Here are our current top 10 win probabilities: It’s not common for three of the top four win probabilities after Round 1 to belong to players outside of the top 10 of the leaderboard. None of the top golfers played particularly well on Thursday, but our model expects them to make up the ground they’ve ceded over the next three rounds. NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut,� “Top 20,� “Top 5,� and “Win� probabilities every five minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10,000 simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of THE CJ CUP @ NINE BRIDGES, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page. Follow on Twitter

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We can't take our eyes off Will Zalatoris; well, at least when we can find him. If you, like I, build your lineup in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf before the page is updated to reflect the field for the next tournament - that usually occurs on Tuesdays - locating golfers who weren't committed at the deadline on Fridays requires additional steps. Zalatoris didn't qualify for the Sanderson Farms Championship until he recorded a top 10 at the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship. Not long after, he accepted the top-10 exemption to play this week, so he didn't appear in the "Field" in the ADD GOLFER function of the game. RELATED: Power Rankings | Preview the course, storylines | Expert Picks In the future, if you don't want to (or can't) wait until the "Field" is updated on Tuesday, follow these steps to locate additions after the commitment deadline. 1) On the My Roster page, click on ADD GOLFER; 2) On the pop-up that appears, click on "All"; 3) Enter a few letters in "Search" (e.g. "ZAL"); 4) All results of your search will populate immediately beneath that area; 5) Add the golfer as usual. As a reminder, bonus points for non-members in your starting lineup in the final round are added manually on the day after the conclusion of the tournament (although sometimes on the same day if it's an early Monday finish). Adjustments for playoff losses, data corrections and other fixes also occur at the same time, when applicable. Results, points and ranks aren't final until then. PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf My roster for the Sanderson Farms Championship (in alphabetical order): Sam Burns Sungjae Im Sebastián Muñoz Doc Redman Scottie Scheffler Will Zalatoris You'll find my starters in Expert Picks. Others to consider for each category (in alphabetical order): Scoring: Bronson Burgoon; Brian Harman; Charley Hoffman; Anirban Lahiri; Denny McCarthy; Pat Perez; Kristoffer Ventura; Xinjun Zhang Driving: Stewart Cink; Lucas Glover; Emiliano Grillo; Charley Hoffman; Tyler McCumber; Davis Riley; Kristoffer Ventura POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD Zach Johnson ... Easily could have slotted in the Power Rankings proper. He logged top 10s in two of his last three starts and finished T14 in his course debut here last year. In full disclosure, I owned him in my season-long private league in 2019-20 and was underwhelmed, so I'm probably not emotionally disconnected yet to buy into the recent surge. I drafted him primarily because he was in the last year of the exemptions for winning the 2015 Open Championship, but only the PGA Championship was held, as you know. Don't worry, I'm catching up. Sometimes this space for these capsules serves as a confessional. DRAWS Tyler McCumber ... He's a proven winner and he's gone on tears before, so expectations are higher than usual coming off the runner-up finish at Corales. He prevailed three times on PGA TOUR Latinoamérica (Ecuador, Mexico, Peru) and thrice more on the Mackenzie Tour-PGA TOUR Canada, the latter grouping during a four-start stretch in a five-week span in the summer of 2018. Emiliano Grillo ... As long as he continues to putt well enough, he'll contribute. Just don't expect frequent leaderboard appearances. Connected on his sixth straight cut made with a T21 at Corales where he was inside the top 10 in both total driving and greens hit. Also ranked fourth in par-5 scoring for the week. Placed T39 in his first look at Country Club of Jackson last year. Henrik Stenson ... He was a classic Wild Card last week and delivered a steady T21. Figuring that it was a proper springboard for the new season, confidence remains high because of who we know him to be and his fit for his debut on the track. Ideal in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, although his cachet likely will dull intended sharp angles. Lucas Glover ... While he's somewhat inside the cone of converging trends what with a T17 at the U.S. Open in his last start and three top 25s among four cuts made at the CC of Jackson, there's potentially an additional layer of inspiration in the mix this week. His maternal grandmother, Lucille, died last Friday. He named his first born after her. Anirban Lahiri ... Isolated in his homeland of India for an extended period of time due to the pandemic, he was among the contingent who didn't resume competing until later and for whom the eligibility adjustments are necessary. Now three starts into his return and fresh off a T6 at Corales where he led the field in putts per GIR and par-4 scoring. Finished T45 here last year, so he has course knowledge. Sprinkle shares into your DFS lineups. MJ Daffue Charley Hoffman Beau Hossler Russell Knox Charl Schwartzel Brian Stuard Kristoffer Ventura FADES Byeong Hun An ... This is relative because he's so hit and miss. At best, consider him fractionally in DFS and invest aggressively by attaching other risks with a devil-may-care attitude. Course-history buffs are salivating over his third-place finish as a first-timer here last year, but his full-season value still trumps short-term ownership. Ryan Armour ... His breakthrough victory here in 2017 is his only notable performance in five trips, three of which resulted in missed cuts. He's also just 1-for-7 upon arrival. Chez Reavie ... After an uptick over the summer, he's regressed into a pattern of inconsistency. Of course, that's in a vacuum and ignores the restructuring of the seasons, but everyone is in the same boat. Also seeing CC of Jackson for the first time. Sergio Garcia ... The tournament debutant remains in a funk with only one top-30 finish in the U.S. in 16 months and just one payday in his last four starts (T66, Wyndham). Brandt Snedeker ... He dealt with a sore back over the summer, so he's yet to eliminate the doubt that it's no longer a problem. In 10 starts post-hiatus, has yet to ignite with six missed cuts and no top 40s. Matt Jones ... After converting on his projection at Corales with a T14, it's time to leave him alone. He's 0-for-4 at CC of Jackson. Henrik Norlander ... After a T59 at Sedgefield, he's gone 0-for-3. During a similar spell last year, he turned in a pair of 74s here and missed the cut. Keegan Bradley Rafa Cabrera Bello Will Gordon Mark Hubbard Tom Lewis Maverick McNealy Scott Piercy Matthias Schwab Sahith Theegala RETURNING TO COMPETITION Bronson Burgoon ... Now that his second child has been born, he can return to his day job. You'll find more on him in Sleepers. Andrew Putnam ... Called it quits during his second round of the U.S. Open with a sore back. Going all the way back to the last three starts before the hiatus, he's just 2-for-12 and without a top-35 finish. Robert Garrigus ... In the field at the Korn Ferry Tour's Savannah Golf Championship. He had to walk off Corales in the second round last week due to heat exhaustion. NOTABLE WDs Louis Oosthuizen ... Would have been making his tournament debut, instead it's a second consecutive week off after finishing third at the U.S. Open. Bud Cauley ... He's a disappointing omit for two reasons. First, he posted top 15s in two of his last three starts. Second, he was on the short list of attractive non-winners who are boxing out to become the seventh consecutive breakthrough at the Sanderson Farms Championship. Brian Gay ... No matter what happens this season, he made it - the four-time PGA TOUR winner has bridged to the PGA TOUR Champions when he turns 50 in December of 2021, and he didn't need the eligibility adjustments for this season. He finished 115th in the FedExCup in 2019-20. POWER RANKINGS RECAP - CORALES PUNTACANA RESORT & CLUB CHAMPIONSHIP Power Ranking Golfer Result 1 Mackenzie Hughes 3rd 2 Adam Long 5th 3 Sam Burns T28 4 Will Zalatoris T8 5 Kristoffer Ventura T52 6 Denny McCarthy T41 7 Brian Stuard T33 8 Xinjun Zhang T11 9 Emiliano Grillo T21 10 Matt Jones T14 11 Charles Howell III MC 12 Graeme McDowell MC 13 Corey Conners MC 14 James Hahn T6 15 Scott Brown T56 Wild Card Henrik Stenson SLEEPERS RECAP - CORALES PUNTACANA RESORT & CLUB CHAMPIONSHIP Golfer Result Patton Kizzire T41 Seamus Power MC Sam Ryder T52 Sepp Straka T33 Justin Suh T14 BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE GOLFERS ON THE PGA TOUR September 29 ... Matthew NeSmith (27) September 30 ... none October 1 ... Grayson Murray (27) October 2 ... George McNeill (45); Zack Sucher (34) October 3 ... Danny Willett (33) October 4 ... none October 5 ... Kelly Kraft (32)

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