Rory McIlroy lets another victory slip away

PEBBLE BEACH, Calif. – Ted Potter Jr. has won so many golf tournaments since turning pro that he’s unsure of the official total. His longtime friend and caddie has lost track, too. “I don’t have enough fingers and toes for that. It’s a lot,� John Balmer said while waiting outside the scoring trailer Sunday afternoon. “If I had to put the over/under at 60, I’d probably say above 60.� An hour later, when pressed for a number, Potter tried to itemize his resume. “On the Moonlight Tour, probably 60 one-day events,� he said, searching hard in his memory bank. “On the Hooters Tour, the four-day ones, I think I got 7. The three-day ones, I got 6 or 7.� For sure, he won twice on the Web.com Tour. Then there’s his first PGA TOUR win in 2012 at The Greenbrier Classic. No matter how those numbers add up, the latest, biggest and perhaps most surprising win of his career came Sunday at one of golf’s most iconic courses, when he stared down world No. 1 Dustin Johnson and a host of other more recognizable names to win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am by three strokes. In retrospect, maybe we shouldn’t be surprised that it was Potter chatting up Clint Eastwood on the 18th green, and then later trying to hold off the tears while trying to put Sunday’s performance in perspective. Ted Potter Jr. has been a winner at every level. There’s no denying that. It’s just that most of those levels are below the consciousness of the average golf fan – mini-tour events held without publicity or nightly highlights on SportsCenter. Some may call Potter a journeyman, but it’s a journey filled with a lot of success. All that success seemed to pay dividends at Pebble Beach. He didn’t flinch in the pressure-packed environment of the final group on Sunday. He wasn’t intimidated by Johnson, who counts two of his 17 career wins at Pebble Beach and outdrove Potter by upwards of 50 yards on some tee shots. He didn’t let an opening bogey shake him up, as he bounced back with birdies on four of his next six holes. And he delivered the biggest blow, a chip-in at the 7th hole after Johnson ran his chip from the same spot 5-1/2 feet past the pin. He then followed with 11 consecutive pars, waiting to see if anybody could offer up a challenge and make him sweat. No one did. It was the kind of performance that only winners know how to deliver. “Definitely it helps to draw back from past experience coming down the stretch,� Potter said. “It doesn’t matter what kind of tournament really it is. … I think I know how to control myself and the nerves.� Added Balmer: “You cannot replace someone who’s won. It’s so much easier to do it again once you’ve done it. If you’ve never done it, it’s hard to get to that level. “It’s kind of like holding your breath. If you’ve got to hold it for 10 seconds, you don’t practice for 5 or 4 seconds. You go as deep as you can. For Ted, he’s won at every level – won as a junior, won in high school won on the mini-tours – he didn’t go to college, but he’s won at every conceivable level.� Yes, but this is the PGA TOUR, the hardest level to win at, filled with the world’s best golfers. Several of those were in the mix Sunday – besides No. 1 Johnson, there was No. 2 Jon Rahm, who threatened earlier before doing a deep dive (otherwise known as a back-nine 42) into nearby Stillwater Cove; No. 8 Jason Day, who was charging fast until he found the beach with his second shot at 18; and No. 35 Phil Mickelson, a four-time winner who shot a terrific 67 on Sunday after shooting himself in the foot a day earlier with his even-par 72. Potter, meanwhile, put himself in contention with a Saturday 62 at Monterey Peninsula in which he flirted with 59. On Sunday, he proved it wasn’t a fluke, even if others may have thought so. “I’m sure everybody knew probably going into this tournament Dustin’s probably going to win the golf tournament,� the 34-year-old Potter said. “So I knew I’m the underdog there. What do I got to lose, really? Just go out there and try to play the best golf I could today and see what happens. Why put more pressure on myself to say I’m playing against the world No. 1?� In between all that winning, though, Potter has experienced his share of disappointments. Turning pro right out of high school in Florida in 2002, he made the Web.com Tour in 2004 – and promptly missed the cut in each of his 24 starts. Back on the Web.com Tour in 2007, he missed the cut 17 times out of 20 starts. Another year on the Web.com Tour in 2010 – missed cuts in 8 of 11 starts. But with TOUR status in 2012, he won The Greenbrier Classic in a playoff against Troy Kelly (by the way, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson were in that field) before simply wearing down. He played too much – “Ted’s a three-week kind of guy,� noted Balmer – and made the cut in just half his starts the next year. Then he suffered an ankle injury in the summer of 2014 when he slipped off a curb while wearing flip-flops and rolled his ankle to the point that it required surgery. It cost him nearly two years of his career and it still affects him at times, although – he insists – not inside the ropes. Potter’s been on a strange journey, a rollercoaster one to be sure. He’s still seeking consistency, still wants to put himself in contention more often. A little fitness wouldn’t hurt either, said his caddie. “We just gotta get him in the gym now,� Balmer said with a smile. “Get him to do a few situps.� For now, he’ll settle for being the latest left-handed golfer to win at Pebble Beach. Mickelson and Potter, in fact, are both natural right-handers. If golf fans had to choose which one would win this week, would Potter have received a single vote? Would anybody have known he was even in the field? Even Mickelson said he’s never played with Potter but added: “I think Pebble Beach and Augusta are left-handed golf courses. I think that’s obvious.� Augusta, huh? Potter’s got an invite now. Maybe we’ve learned this week not to bet against him.

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Through 36 holes at the CIMB Classic, there are three players who have emerged as the clear favorites: Marc Leishman, Gary Woodland, and Paul Casey together hold over 50 percent of the win probability. Here are the top 10 win probabilities heading into the weekend: Leishman and Woodland lead at 14-under par, with our model giving a slight edge to Leishman due to his slightly better long-term historical performance. Paul Casey follows close behind at 13-under par, and, as the second-highest rated player by our model this week, has a good chance this weekend. 
 As was mentioned in yesterday’s article, Justin Thomas is by far the class of this field according to our model. Consequently, despite being 5 strokes back in a tie for 15th, Thomas still has the fourth-highest win probability at 6.5 percent. 
 The round of the day Friday belonged to Gary Woodland, who fired an 11-under par 61. Here is Woodland’s card, with his strokes-gained on each hole indicated: It was Woodland’s back nine (his first of the day) that was especially impressive: Woodland gained strokes on the field on each of his first nine holes. In total, Woodland gained 8.44 strokes over the field on Friday. To put that into context, since the start of 2014 season there have been about 90,000 rounds played in stroke-play PGA TOUR events; there have only been 73 rounds in which a player gained more than 8.44 strokes over the field.     NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the CIMB Classic, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page. Follow on Twitter

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PUNTA CANA, Dominican Republic (AP) — Chad Ramey won the windswept Corales Puntacana Championship on Sunday for his first PGA TOUR title, beating Ben Martin and Alex Smalley by a stroke. RELATED: Final leaderboard Ramey closed with a 5-under 67, completing a two-putt par on the par-4 18th after Martin missed a 6-foot birdie try that would have forced a playoff. “It was honestly like I always thought it would be,” Ramey said. “It was very stressful, very nerve-wracking coming down the stretch, but I just grinded it out, kind of stuck to my process, stayed within myself and pulled it out.” Two strokes behind Martin entering the round, Ramey made four straight birdies on Nos. 13-16 to take the lead and parred the par-3 17th at Corales Golf Course. “I’ve been rolling the putter good all day, they just hadn’t been going in,” Ramey said. “I was kind of all around the hole on the front side. I didn’t change a thing, I didn’t do anything different. They just started going in.” With the tournament played opposite the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play event in Austin, Texas, Ramey earned 300 FedExCup points. The 29-year-old from Mississippi finished at 17-under 271. “I think it will take maybe a day or two to sink in,” Ramey said. “Everything’s pretty surreal, happening pretty fast, but I’m definitely excited.” Martin, the leader after each of the first three rounds, closed with a 70. The 2014 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open winner for his lone PGA TOUR title, Martin was making only his second PGA TOUR start of the year. “That was obviously difficult,” Martin said. “I’ve won out here before, won on the Korn Ferry, runner-up in the U.S. Am, but I guess maybe I wanted this one a lot more. I don’t think I’ve ever been this emotional about golf, so this is a first. I guess, to me, that’s a good thing. Means I competed hard and it obviously stung. Hit two such good shots into 18 to have such a good opportunity and then not capitalize I guess is the most difficult part.” Smalley finished with a 67. The TOUR rookie from Duke had his best PGA TOUR finish. “Successful week,” Smalley said. “Kind of stings a little bit to come up a shot short. Left my 20-footer on the last 6 inches short right in the middle. Whatever’s meant to be is meant to be, so I take a lot of positives from this week.” Jhonattan Vegas of Venezuela shot a 68 to tie for fourth with Cameron Percy (67) at 15 under. Denmark’s Rasmus Hojgaard (67) was 14 under. Twin brother Nicolai, the highest-ranked player in the field at No. 77, missed the cut.

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