Confidence Factor: Wells Fargo Championship

The Wells Fargo Championship returns to Quail Hollow Club outside Charlotte after a one-year hiatus hosting the 2017 PGA Championship. Eagle Point Golf Club in Wilmington, North Carolina, served as the host for the 2017 event that was won by Brian Harman. The data from last year will be worthless in preparing for the return to Charlotte. The data from the PGA Championship on the other hand, will have value. Quail Hollow Club has hosted annually since its inception in 2003. Both PGA TOUR Fantasy games are back in action this week plus this is the last chance to qualify for THE PLAYERS Championship next week. After a week of partner’s golf, it would appear things are back to “normal” in fantasy golf on TOUR. Not quite. Quail Hollow Club began its Tom Fazio renovation/redesign in 1996 that continued until the TOUR arrived in 2003. After a harsh winter in 2013, most of the bentgrass greens barely made it through the May event that spring. With the 2017 PGA Championship and 2021 Presidents Cup on the horizon the club replaced all of the greens after the 2013 event with Miniverde Bermuda, a grass more durable in heat and humidity. The Miniverde was used in the 2014-2016 events but was replaced with state-of-the-art G12 Champion Bermuda, just 15 months before the PGA Championship arrived. That was just the beginning of the preparation. The first five holes of the course were completely rerouted and redeveloped and No. 11 was extended to stretch out to 7,600 yards for the final major of last season. The par on the card changed from Par-72 to Par-71. The official scorecard for this year shows that at 7,554 yards and Par-71, Quail Hollow Club should continue its annual ranking in the upper echelon of most difficult courses on TOUR. One of the major changes before last year’s PGA Championship was eliminating the opening Par-5 hole that ranked as one of the easiest on the course. It’s now a 495-yard Par-4. Woof. I haven’t even mentioned “The Green Mile” yet!   TALES OF THE TAPE Usually I’ll start at the oldest event and work my way to through to the most recent winner but that’s not the case this week. After the significant changes made after the 2016 edition, I’m starting with the new normal. Last year Kevin Kisner tried to go wire-to-wire to win his first major championship but ran out of gas on Sunday. Hideki Matsuyama, looking to also win his first, played in the final group with him and never fired either. Instead, it was Justin Thomas who picked up the final major of the campaign. The 24-year old blazed home in 68 to win by two shots over Francesco Molinari, Louis Oosthuizen and Patrick Reed. Thomas posted 8-under-par 276 on the “new” Par-71 and played his final three rounds in 10 under. He was the only player in the championship to post three rounds in the 60’s. Molinari and Matsuyama shared the lowest round of the week with 64. 2016 Wells Fargo champion James Hahn collected T13. Please understand that Quail Hollow Club will not be set up like a major championship this week but those who have played the “new” edition will have a point of reference and a feel for the new grass on the greens. Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings will update you on who is back from last August. The three previous events before the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow were interesting in their own ways. The first year with Bermuda greens J.B. Holmes had 37 one-putt greens and made 48 putts inside three feet. He led the field in birdies even though his ball-striking was barely in the top third. Usually new putting surfaces favors the players who hit the most of them. Holmes entered that week 89th in SG: Putting and left with the trophy on 14-under 274. In 2015 McIlroy broke out the video game code to win by seven shots and setting too many records to list here. He became the first multiple winner of the event by setting the course (61), tournament (267), birdies (27) and margin-of-victory record (7). Perfect weather conditions didn’t hurt scoring and it was a list, again, of big boys off the tee occupying the top 12, who all finished 10 under or lower. For a big, bad course, there were only 10 rounds over par for the top 27 players for the week. Hahn became the final winner before the redesign as scoring calmed down after McIlroy’s trouncing the year before. Hahn kept it between the yellow lines as he didn’t sign for any crooked numbers on the week posting 9 under 279 for the win. He’s not the longest hitter on TOUR but he hit enough fairways and greens to point to that value here. I’ll also point out he was magic on the greens so when the entire bag is on point, these guys are ALL very good. His best finish in three previous attempts was T50 so that suggests course form isn’t a necessity. That will be music to the ears of those who didn’t play in the PGA Championship last summer. If that’s not enough, he MC in his eight previous starts entering the event. NOTE: Golfers inside the top 25-ish in each statistic on the 2017-18 PGA TOUR are listed only if they are scheduled to compete this week. * – Finished inside the top 25 at the Wells Fargo Championship (since 2012), 2017 PGA Championship or is a former winner. Driving Distance (all drives) Rank Golfer 4 *Justin Thomas 7 Tony Finau 8 Trey Mullinax 8 Xander Schauffele 10 *Gary Woodland 11 Luke List 12 *Hideki Matsuyama 14 *Francesco Molinari 15 *Grayson Murray 16 Kevin Tway 17 Keith Mitchell 18 Tom Lovelady 22 Bryson DeChambeau 24 Phil Mickelson 24 Byeong-Hun An 27 *Rory McIlroy SG: Off the Tee Rank Golfer 3 Tommy Fleetwood 6 *Francesco Molinari 7 *Louis Oosthuizen 8 Luke List 10 Keith Mitchell 12 Byeong-Hun An 13 *Gary Woodland 14 Bryson DeChambeau 15 Xander Schauffele 16 Emiliano Grillo 19 Dylan Frittelli 21 *Kevin Streelman 22 *Rory McIlroy 25 *Lucas Glover SG: Tee to Green Rank Golfer 4 Tommy Fleetwood 5 *Justin Thomas 6 Luke List 7 Keegan Bradley 9 *Paul Casey 10 Adam Scott 11 Tony Finau 12 Bryson DeChambeau 14 Brendan Steele 16 *Hideki Matsuyama 17 *Kevin Streelman 18 Alex Noren 19 *Francesco Molinari 21 Byeong-Hun An 23 Adam Hadwin 24 *Tiger Woods 25 *Patrick Reed SG: Putting Rank Golfer 1 *Jason Day 2 *Phil Mickelson 3 Sam Burns 4 Greg Chalmers 6 *Brian Harman 7 *Kevin Kisner 8 *Tiger Woods 9 *Webb Simpson 11 Michael Thompson 12 Alex Noren 14 Seamus Power 15 Peter Malnati 16 Beau Hossler 17 Bud Cauley 19 Nicholas Lindheim 23 *Patton Kizzire 25 Johnson Wagner With 7,554 yards and Par-71, there’s no question that the winner this week will earn their 500 FedExCup points and $1.386 million. There are 60 white sand bunkers and two water hazards that will keep the players attention. The top 70 (and ties) survivors of the 156 teeing it up will play the weekend. Brian Harman is the defending champion at the EVENT, not this course, so please be aware of this any other non-PGA Championship results from 2017. This is a recording. There is plenty of meat on this bone and it’s hardly a surprise it rated as the most-difficult course on TOUR last year. Quail Hollow Club checked in at +2.468 strokes above par. It was not just the redesign (eliminating the easiest Par-5 on the course and replacing it with a 500-yard Par-4) or set-up for a major championship that increased the difficulty. Before the change it ranked the ninth-most difficult in 2016, 20th-most difficult in 2015 when 21 under won the event and 13th-most difficult the first year with Bermuda greens in 2014. There are nine Par-4 holes that measure 449 yards or better and five of those are greater than 480. The three Par-5 holes will provide minimum relief and the three finishing holes, “The Green Mile”, are annually the toughest three-hole stretch on TOUR. They stretch out at Par-4 506, Par-3 223 and Par-4 494 that all have water in play. Players expecting to come-from-behind late on Sunday aren’t going to find many chances for birdie in that stretch while the leaders will gladly sign for pars. The last two events haven’t produced a double-digit winner reinforcing that par is a solid score this week. Hitting fairways is a difficult task here but the above-average sized greens (6,500 square feet) will help. Players finding the sprinkler line and approaching the proper portion of the landing areas will have the most scoring chances. The problem is there aren’t many of them. As shown above, there are plenty of rounds at par-or-better for the top players annually. Those new greens should still be firm so find guys who will hit the most of them! This event rarely stands still but the only part that doesn’t change is the big hitter who keeps winning. I’m leaning with history and loading up on guys who rake from tee-to-green and can handle almost 7,600 yards. NOTE: The groups below are comprehensive to assist in data mining. Inclusion doesn’t imply automatic endorsement in every fantasy game as all decisions are specific to your situation. CONFIDENCE MEN Selected golfers with multiple cuts made sorted by rank on the tournament’s money list. BUILDING CONFIDENCE Sorted by best finish, selected golfers who are either finally finding form on the course or are still relatively new to the tournament but have enjoyed some success. OTHER SIGNS OF CONFIDENCE Sorted by most recent top 10s, selected golfers for whom it’s been a few years since their last.

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