Thursday Night Stat Report It was a difficult day for scoring in the opening round at the Valero Texas Open, with only 4 holes playing under par on the day. Here is a graphic detailing hole-by-hole scoring from Thursday’s round: Currently, there are 86 players at 1 over par or better (T64th position). Our model is projecting Friday’s cutline as follows (as usual, assuming that the course plays to a scoring average similar to Thursday’s): 2 over par: 74.2 percent 3 over par: 24.8 percent 1 over par: 1.0 percent This week’s field at the Valero Texas Open is as big as they come on the PGA TOUR (156 players) and, due to a relative lack of starpower, one of the more evenly-matched fields as well. As a consequence, our model’s highest cut projection at the start of the tournament was just 74 percent, belonging to Matt Kuchar (in a typical week, the highest cut projection will usually be 80 to 90 percent). After shooting 1 under par today, Kuchar’s cut probability now sits at 91 percent. One of the biggest movers on the day was Grayson Murray, whose probability of making the cut rose from 54 percent at the start of Thursday to 99 percent, thanks to his 5 under par round of 67. This implies that the model is giving Murray about a 1 percent chance of shooting 7 over par or worse tomorrow, given how the cutline is being projected above (nobody tell Grayson!). Some other notable cut probabilities heading into Friday’s round are Kevin Chappell (Even par; 80 percent), Brendan Steele (2 under par; 95 percent), Adam Scott (3 over par; 43 percent), and Sergio Garcia (2 over par; 59 percent). NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cutâ€�, “Top 20â€�, “Top 5â€�, and “Winâ€� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Valero Texas Open, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page. Â
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2nd Round Match-Ups - M. Hughes vs N. Taylor | |
Type: 2nd Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN | |
Nick Taylor | -120 |
Mackenzie Hughes | +100 |
2nd Round Match-Ups - A. Rozner v M. Pavon | |
Type: Requests - Status: OPEN | |
Antoine Rozner | -115 |
Matthieu Pavon | -105 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - N. Taylor / T. Pendrith / M. Hughes | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Taylor Pendrith | +130 |
Nick Taylor | +180 |
Mackenzie Hughes | +230 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - M. Pavon / A. Svensson / A. Wise | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Matthieu Pavon | +125 |
Adam Svensson | +135 |
Aaron Wise | +350 |
1st Round 3-Balls - L. Coughlin / J.Y. Ko / R. Takeda | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Jin Young Ko | +135 |
Rio Takeda | +160 |
Lauren Coughlin | +240 |
2nd Round Match-Ups - L. Aberg vs R. McIIroy | |
Type: 2nd Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN | |
Rory McIlroy | -130 |
Ludvig Aberg | +110 |
2nd Round Match-Ups - K. Mitchell vs T. Detry | |
Type: 2nd Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN | |
Keith Mitchell | -120 |
Thomas Detry | +100 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - R. McIIroy / L. Aberg / L. Clanton | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Rory McIlroy | +125 |
Ludvig Aberg | +165 |
Luke Clanton | +275 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - T. Detry / K. Mitchell / B. Hun An | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Keith Mitchell | +145 |
Thomas Detry | +170 |
Byeong Hun An | +225 |
1st Round 3-Balls - N. Korda / M. Stark / M. Saigo | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Nelly Korda | -110 |
Mao Saigo | +200 |
Maja Stark | +320 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - H. Hall / T. Moore / K. Kitayama | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Harry Hall | +145 |
Kurt Kitayama | +180 |
Taylor Moore | +200 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - C. Villegas / E. Grillo / N. Hardy | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Emiliano Grillo | +105 |
Nick Hardy | +180 |
Camilo Villegas | +300 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - N. Lashley / A. Smalley / V. Perez | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Alex Smalley | +120 |
Victor Perez | +165 |
Nate Lashley | +300 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - J. Dahmen / P. Rodgers / C. Young | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Patrick Rodgers | +135 |
Carson Young | +180 |
Joel Dahmen | +220 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - K. Onishi / M. Creighton / M. Anderson | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Matthew Anderson | +140 |
Myles Creighton | +185 |
Kaito Onishi | +210 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - T. Rosenmueller / M. Andersen / J. Goldenberg | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Thomas Rosenmueller | +100 |
Matthew Anderson | +170 |
Josh Goldenberg | +340 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - K. Velo / B. Thornberry / W. Heffernan | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Kevin Velo | +110 |
Braden Thornberry | +145 |
Wes Heffernan | +375 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - P. Peterson / P. Knowles / H. Thomson | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Hunter Thomson | +135 |
Paul Peterson | +140 |
Philip Knowles | +300 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - N. Norgaard / G. Sargent / J. Keefer | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Johnny Keefer | +110 |
Niklas Norgaard | +120 |
Gordon Sargent | +550 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - A. Rozner / V. Covello / W. Wang | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Antoine Rozner | -230 |
Vince Covello | +400 |
Wei-Hsuan Wang | +425 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - T. Kanaya / T. Cone / A.J. Ewart | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Takumi Kanaya | -110 |
A J Ewart | +250 |
Trevor Cone | +250 |
2nd Round 3-Balls - N. Goodwin / Y. Cao / B. Botha | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls - Status: OPEN | |
Noah Goodwin | +110 |
Barend Botha | +200 |
Yi Cao | +250 |
Major Specials 2025 | |
Type: To Win A Major 2025 - Status: OPEN | |
Bryson DeChambeau | +500 |
Jon Rahm | +750 |
Collin Morikawa | +900 |
Xander Schauffele | +900 |
Ludvig Aberg | +1000 |
Justin Thomas | +1100 |
Joaquin Niemann | +1400 |
Shane Lowry | +1600 |
Tommy Fleetwood | +1800 |
Tyrrell Hatton | +1800 |
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US Open 2025 | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
Scottie Scheffler | +275 |
Rory McIlroy | +650 |
Bryson DeChambeau | +700 |
Jon Rahm | +1200 |
Xander Schauffele | +2000 |
Ludvig Aberg | +2200 |
Collin Morikawa | +2500 |
Justin Thomas | +3000 |
Joaquin Niemann | +3500 |
Shane Lowry | +3500 |
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The Open 2025 | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
Scottie Scheffler | +400 |
Rory McIlroy | +500 |
Xander Schauffele | +1200 |
Ludvig Aberg | +1400 |
Collin Morikawa | +1600 |
Jon Rahm | +1600 |
Bryson DeChambeau | +2000 |
Shane Lowry | +2500 |
Tommy Fleetwood | +2500 |
Tyrrell Hatton | +2500 |
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Ryder Cup 2025 | |
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN | |
USA | -150 |
Europe | +140 |
Tie | +1200 |