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Confidence Factor: CareerBuilder Challenge

Welcome Back! The PGA TOUR returns to the mainland as the West Coast swing resumes in the California desert at the CareerBuilder Challenge in La Quinta. This pro-am event has been around since 1960 and used four courses and five rounds to determine a champion until 2012. For the seventh year in a row the pros will only get four cracks at three different courses to find out who’s the best of the bunch this week. While each course has its own features, gamers will need to remember that only one, La Quinta Country Club, has been in use in 14 of the last 15 events. In 2016 Pete Dye’s Stadium Course and Jack Nicklaus’ Tournament Course were added to the rotation for the first time. When these tracks were added, course history from the previous two flew directly out the window. Speaking of rotation, the Stadium Course will host the final round for the third year in a row, meaning it will be the only course of the three to be used twice. Every pro and their amateur playing partner will play each course once with the top 70 and ties advancing to the weekend. If there are more than 78 players making the cut, only 60 will advance to the weekend. Jason Dufner was the first to take the title with the two new courses in play. His 25-under-par 268 was three shots lower than Hudson Swafford’s winning total from last year. Swafford will look to join “The Desert Fox” Johnny Miller as the only player to defend in the Coachella Valley. TALES OF THE TAPE Last year it was weird to see champion Hudson Swafford wearing a long-sleeve shirt under his polo as he held the trophy on Sunday. The final-round temperature only hit 61 and it was breezy so there’s no doubt that kept scoring quiet a day after Adam Hadwin posted 59 at La Quinta Country Club. Swafford took advantage of the greens he hit for the week by holing the important putts, those for birdie. His final round saw him circle three of the last four and become only the second player since 2012 to come from off the lead to win. His dominance of the par-5s is relevant because all three tracks play to par 72. ShotLink is only used on the host course but the stats above translate on all three tracks. The “regular” chart returns will return next week as well as a look back at the last THREE winners. Ch-ch-ch-changes! I do know that Swafford was the first, first-time winner since Jhonattan Vegas in 2011 and first since the reduction to four rounds in 2012. I’ll point out that Vegas is also the only rookie winner here and just the third international winner since the turn of the century. Jason Dufner needed two playoff holes to defeat David Lingmerth in the first edition with the two new courses in play. Both players carded 25-under-par 263 and both did it in two separate fashions. The champ opened 64-65-64 to carry a two-stroke lead into Sunday. The Swede made it a grandstand finish as he posted 62-65 (bogey free) to force extra holes. I’d point out that Adam Hadwin played in the second-to-last group in this edition for those of you paying attention. Dufner’s success was based on his strength, lighting up greens in regulation. This was his first top 10 in seven tries in the Coachella Valley but he entered the week on the back of consecutive top 10’s at The RSM Classic and Sony Open in Hawaii. When Dufner’s putter heats up, he can be a bother for the rest of the field. He circled a whopping 30 birdies winning in 2016. His putter has shown hints of warming as he circled 21 birdies last week at the Sony Open on the back of 18 at Kapalua. NOTE: Golfers inside the top 25 in each statistic on the 2016-17 PGA TOUR are listed only if they are scheduled to compete in the CareerBuilder Challenge. * – Finished inside the top 10 at the CareerBuilder Challenge since 2016. Par-5 Scoring Rank Golfer 2 *Luke List 5 *Phil Mickelson 7 Jon Rahm 7 Brandon Hagy 12 Seamus Power 12 Rory Sabbatini 12 Kevin Tway 18 Nick Taylor Putting: Birdie-or-Better Percentage Rank Golfer 8 *Phil Mickelson 10 *Matt Every 11 Camilo Villegas 12 Grayson Murray 14 Sam Saunders 15 Jon Rahm 19 Scott Piercy 22 *Luke List 23 Brandt Snedeker 25 Tom Hoge Greens in Regulation Rank Golfer 1 Martin Flores 5 Ryan Armour 6 Lucas Glover 8 Cameron Percy 9 Robert Garrigus 12 J.J. Henry 14 *Luke List 15 Chad Campbell 18 Stewart Cink 21 Jon Rahm 23 *Hudson Swafford 24 Jim Herman Gamers playing the PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO will want to revolve their rosters around avoiding the Stadium Course as much as possible this week. The last two years the Pete Dye design (par 72, 7,113) has played the most difficult of the trio. La Quinta (par 72, 7,060) is annually one of the easiest courses on TOUR and the last two years have seen it rate third easiest in 2016 and second easiest last year. The Nicklaus Tournament layout (par 72, 7,159) nipped La Quinta for the second easiest track in 2016 but rallied in the breeze last year to rank No. 39 of 50 in difficulty but still played 1.2 strokes under par. Having low scores in pro-ams is hardly earth-shattering information. The rounds are already long enough so heavy rough, slick greens and tough pin placements aren’t going to be on the menu. Toss in usually perfect weather and the recipe for going low is optimum. As is the case in shootouts, the players who find the most GIR will be the ones with the most chances for birdie. This week, with all three courses playing par 72 and all less than 7,200 yards, there won’t be many acceptable excuses for scores worse than par. Anything in the 70’s this week will need to be followed with something in the low 60’s. Bogeys will almost feel like doubles especially if the 54-hole cut hovers around 9 under par like it was in 2016. With a birdie-fest on the cards, there’s not much mystery on why there aren’t repeat champions. A shootout on short courses should involve just about everyone this week so it’s your job to narrow it down. I’ve provided some help below!    Weatherman Rob Bolton has suggested in his Power Rankings the weather this week won’t be perfect as temperatures are stuck in the 60s but the wind looks to be tame. Be sure to look for my post-round recap Emergency 9 each night shortly after the conclusion of play! NOTE: The groups below are comprehensive to assist in data mining. Inclusion doesn’t imply automatic endorsement in every fantasy game as all decisions are specific to your situation. CONFIDENCE MEN Selected golfers with multiple cuts made sorted by rank on the tournament’s money list. BUILDING CONFIDENCE Sorted by best finish, selected golfers who are either finally finding form on the course or are still relatively new to the tournament but have enjoyed some success. OTHER SIGNS OF CONFIDENCE Sorted by most recent top 10s, selected golfers for whom it’s been a few years since their last.

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Cameron Champ
Type: Cameron Champ - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish-120
Top 10 Finish-275
Top 20 Finish-750
Nick Taylor
Type: Nick Taylor - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+135
Top 10 Finish-175
Top 20 Finish-500
Shane Lowry
Type: Shane Lowry - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+140
Top 10 Finish-175
Top 20 Finish-500
Thorbjorn Olesen
Type: Thorbjorn Olesen - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish-115
Top 10 Finish-250
Top 20 Finish-625
Andrew Putnam
Type: Andrew Putnam - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+140
Top 10 Finish-165
Top 20 Finish-500
Sam Burns
Type: Sam Burns - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+150
Top 10 Finish-155
Top 20 Finish-455
Taylor Pendrith
Type: Taylor Pendrith - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+250
Top 10 Finish+105
Top 20 Finish-275
Ryan Fox
Type: Ryan Fox - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+250
Top 10 Finish+110
Top 20 Finish-275
Jake Knapp
Type: Jake Knapp - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+260
Top 10 Finish+115
Top 20 Finish-250
Rasmus Hojgaard
Type: Rasmus Hojgaard - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+400
Top 10 Finish+175
Top 20 Finish-165
ShopRite LPGA Classic
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Akie Iwai+650
Ayaka Furue+650
Rio Takeda+850
Elizabeth Szokol+900
Jeeno Thitikul+900
Mao Saigo+1200
Chisato Iwai+1800
Ashleigh Buhai+2200
Miyu Yamashita+2200
Wei Ling Hsu+2800
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American Family Insurance Championship
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Bjorn/Clarke+275
Green/Hensby+750
Cejka/Kjeldsen+1000
Jaidee/Jones+1400
Bransdon/Percy+1600
Cabrera/Gonzalez+1600
Els/Herron+1600
Stricker/Tiziani+1800
Kelly/Leonard+2000
Appleby/Wright+2200
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Major Specials 2025
Type: To Win A Major 2025 - Status: OPEN
Bryson DeChambeau+500
Jon Rahm+750
Collin Morikawa+900
Xander Schauffele+900
Ludvig Aberg+1000
Justin Thomas+1100
Joaquin Niemann+1400
Shane Lowry+1600
Tommy Fleetwood+1800
Tyrrell Hatton+1800
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US Open 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Scottie Scheffler+275
Rory McIlroy+650
Bryson DeChambeau+700
Jon Rahm+1200
Xander Schauffele+2000
Ludvig Aberg+2200
Collin Morikawa+2500
Justin Thomas+3000
Joaquin Niemann+3500
Shane Lowry+3500
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The Open 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Scottie Scheffler+400
Rory McIlroy+500
Xander Schauffele+1200
Ludvig Aberg+1400
Collin Morikawa+1600
Jon Rahm+1600
Bryson DeChambeau+2000
Shane Lowry+2500
Tommy Fleetwood+2500
Tyrrell Hatton+2500
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Ryder Cup 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
USA-150
Europe+140
Tie+1200

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Celebration of Champions kick-starts special week at The OpenCelebration of Champions kick-starts special week at The Open

ST. ANDREWS, Scotland – Rory McIlroy beamed as he grabbed the hand of Tiger Woods and excitedly pointed up to a window high in the Rusacks Hotel that flanks the 18th fairway at St. Andrews. The pair then waved animatedly in the direction of 22-month-old Poppy McIlroy, daughter of the 21-time PGA TOUR winner and four-time major champion as they finished up play in The Open Championship’s Celebration of Champions on Monday. Just moments earlier they had posed for photos together on the Swilken Bridge, with 18-time major champion Jack Nicklaus no less, but this moment was arguably just as incredible. It was raw. It was pure. And in an age where renumeration can dominate headlines, it showed what this is really all about. Being part of, or bearing witness to, history. This is indeed a very special week – one that will ultimately crown the champion golfer of the year – but one that is so much bigger than any leaderboard. For this is the 150th Open Championship. At the home of golf. It is a celebration of the game born in the Scottish sheep paddocks around this area that has now blossomed into a game that will see hundreds of thousands of fans swarm through the gates this week. It is a game that is still inherently open to all and enjoyed by multiple generations. And while Poppy likely won’t ever remember the special time where Woods, an 82-time TOUR winner with 15 majors – two of which came at St. Andrews – made her the center of attention despite being in the middle of a spiritual setting on golfs grandest stage… Rory will. “If you had of told 10-year-old me that I would play in something like this I’d have hardly believed it. Playing with my idol, ahead of such a special week, it’s just really really cool,” McIlroy said. Woods and McIlroy were part of the last four-person team that included two-time Open champion Lee Trevino and 2018 Women’s Open champion Georgia Hall to take on the first, second, 17th and 18th holes at the Old Course in a better ball format competition that, as the name suggests, celebrates the former champions of The Open. Fans were treated to a cavalcade of legends including gems of the past like Tom Watson and Gary Player to current stars Jordan Spieth and Collin Morikawa among many more. Nicklaus is also here to become just the third American, behind Benjamin Franklin and Bobby Jones, to be given honorary citizenship of the town having won The Open here in 1970 and 1978. This was pinch yourself stuff. Tell your grandkids stuff. One golf analyst was going to leave early to buy a desk fan for his non-air-conditioned accommodation before the light bulb went off… when will you see something like this ever again? The fans cheered for them all. But they saved the loudest roars for Woods who will tee it up Thursday in likely his last real chance of making it three wins at the iconic venue. Despite the numerous complications he faces with his body following a car accident last year, Woods showed glimpses of the smarts that helped him dominate in 2000 and plot his way to another win in 2005 as he birdied two of the four holes. If there was a way to count it, it’s possible a world record number of phone photos would’ve been taken in the four-hole stretch. A chef at The Old Course Hotel on the 17th fairway snuck away from his burners and grabbed his pictures through the glass while down below him, sitting out on a grass lawn, was former Masters champion Adam Scott and his father Phil, also realizing the significance of the occasion enough to come out and soak it all up. “For a lot of guys who haven’t been here like myself, to come here, look out the hotel, walk down 17, 18 on Sunday when you have the public just walking, that’s the coolest experience as a fan, as a golfer, anyone could ask for because it’s a game for everyone,” defending champion Morikawa said. “The stretch of just teeing off on No. 1, just seeing 17, just seeing 18, you feel the history, and you feel the importance of everything that has come before us at this golf course and golf in general. It’s really cool to be here.” For the record, the team of Sir Nick Faldo, Louis Oosthuizen, Zach Johnson and John Daly – all winners at St. Andrews – posted the low score Monday to claim bragging rights over the fellow former champs. They won be three shots and perhaps foreshadowed what might be a birdie fest later in the week. Some are fearful the modern golfer might have usurped The Old Course … Nicklaus isn’t one of them. “They might shoot low. So what? That’s sort of the way I look at it. They’re shooting low now compared to what they shot 100 years ago. But times change and golfers get better, equipment gets better, conditions get better,” Nicklaus said. “I don’t think it really makes a whole lot of difference, frankly. It’s St. Andrews and it is what it is, and it will produce a good champion. It always has. That’s the way I look at it. Bobby Jones always said a golfer’s resume isn’t complete unless he’s won at St. Andrews.” And so we await which golfer will complete his resume – but ultimately – just being part of this iconic week – is enough.

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Sleeper Picks: THE NORTHERN TRUSTSleeper Picks: THE NORTHERN TRUST

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