Johnson pulls off stunning win at Glen Oaks

The 15th edition of the FedExCup Playoffs to conclude the PGA TOUR season has arrived. There will be math and there will be a test, three of them in fact, but it’s all to determine who is crowned the 2021 FedExCup champion. The format is exactly how it was introduced in 2019 but the last four years have taught a lot in terms of projecting who advances to the TOUR Championship. This annual Power Rankings for the FedExCup Playoffs examines the structure, the recent history and this year’s set of host courses. A projected ranking of 30 to reach the finale gets you started. POWER RANKINGS: FEDEXCUP PLAYOFFS It always seems that just when we’re settling into the latest format of the FedExCup Playoffs, it changes. Sometimes it’s because of the reduction to three tournaments. That’s what happened in 2019. Other times, unfortunately, a pandemic influences the points distribution. Of course, that was last year’s experience when points were merely tripled due to playing time lost midseason. However, a recommitment has been made to quadruple FedExCup points for the first two tournaments of 2021. Last year’s adjustment didn’t alter the course of history, however; that is, in time, it won’t appear as an anomaly. Since the current points structure was implemented in 2017, all top-19 opening seeds advanced two tournaments. In 2017 and 2018, and when points were quadrupled, that meant to the third leg of what was a four-event series. Since 2019, it’s meant a trip to the TOUR Championship. This is why all of this year’s top-19 opening seeds are found in the ranking of 30 above. Baked into that is an acceptance that every FedExCup ranking is different no matter the seeds because points totaled in the Regular Season carry forward into the first two events of the Playoffs. Only THE NORTHERN TRUST that opens the Playoffs will have a 36-hole cut of low 65 and ties. There is no cut in the last two tournaments. And because the opening field of 125 (actually 124 because 8-seed Louis Oosthuizen is resting a sore neck) will be whittled to 70 for the BMW Championship, the series opener is the most volatile. When this slice of 55 debuted in 2019, four seeds outside the opening top 70 advanced. The worst finish among them was recorded by 74-seed Joaquin Niemann, who finished T30 at THE NORTHERN TRUST at Liberty National, also the cite of this year’s edition of the same tournament. Last year, six from outside the top 70 survived, but it took no worse than a T13 (by three golfers) to do it. In fact, 111-seed Charley Hoffman also placed T13, but he rose to just 77th, thus submitting the best finish in the series opener that didn’t propel him forward. Monday’s Power Rankings for THE NORTHERN TRUST presents the usual breakdown of the host course among other information, and there will be stand-alone Power Rankings for the last two tournaments, but no matter who advances to the BMW, he will be competing as a professional for the first time at Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland, so there is no recent history on which to rely. It’ll truly be a neutral field. Caves Valley has hosted a number of marquee events, including the 2002 U.S. Senior Open, the 2005 NCAA Division I Men’s Championship, the 2007 Palmer Cup and the 2017 Bridgestone Senior PLAYERS Championship. The Tom Fazio design will be set up for the BMW as a stock par 72 capable of stretching to 7,542 yards. Like it’s relatively near partner in these Playoffs, Liberty National, Caves Valley also boasts bentgrass greens. The top 30 in the FedExCup standings at the conclusion of the BMW Championship will advance to the TOUR Championship at East Lake in Atlanta. It will challenge familiarly as a par 70 at 7,346 yards with bermuda greens. In 2019, seven golfers who opened the Playoffs outside the top 30 advanced to East Lake. Last year, only two converted. The lowest seed in either edition to survive was Abraham Ancer. As the 67-seed in 2019, he was the runner-up at Liberty National and climbed to eighth for the BMW. By merely reaching the Playoffs finale, the golfers are set with traditional exemptions into the 2022 editions of the Masters, the U.S. Open and The Open Championship among many other invitations if not already equipped. Seeding upon arrival will determine all Starting Strokes, which doubles as the leaderboard position at the beginning of play. The top seed opens at 10-under, the 2-seed at 8-under, and so on. To be clear, the winner of the TOUR Championship will possess the lowest score in relation to par combined with his Starting Strokes. For example, if the top seed, who opens at 10-under, scores 10-under 270 for 72 holes, his total score will be 20-under. Meanwhile, if the 5-seed, who opens at 5-under, scores 14-under 266 for 72 holes, his total score will be 19-under. Last year, although Dustin Johnson opened as the top seed at 10-under, his 72-hole score of 11-under 269 was good for just T3 overall in aggregate scoring, but he prevailed by three strokes in combined scoring because of the opening advantage. The FedExCup champion is credited with official victory, but neither FedExCup points nor official earnings apply to the TOUR Championship. Only the leaderboard with the influence of Starting Strokes and bonus prize money will be applied. The winner at East Lake also secures a five-year TOUR membership exemption (through 2025-26). In the history of the FedExCup, six golfers have won a Playoffs event as the top seed entering the tournament they won. Dustin Johnson was the most recent when he prevailed at the 2020 TOUR Championship. The Playoffs also have been a haven for momentum and piling up victories. On 10 occasions, including twice in 2008, a golfer has won exactly two Playoffs events, including consecutively six times. Rory McIlroy has done it twice (2012, 2016), but he’s one (2012) of four who didn’t win the FedExCup in the series in which he recorded multiple victories. His second of two FedExCup titles occurred in 2019 when Starting Strokes was introduced. Of course, there also are the tough-luck experiences. In 2019, Kevin Tway opened as the 41-seed and posted respective results of T24 and T11, yet finished 31st in the FedExCup. Last year, Brian Harman (69-seed) went T11-T12 to place 37th, Jason Kokrak (90th) went T13-T6 to finish 42nd, and Russell Henley (101st) went T8-T25 to settle at 56th. However, just making it to the Playoffs means that a PGA TOUR member has had a successful season. It also means that his job is secure for the next. ROB BOLTON’S SCHEDULE PGATOUR.COM’s Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton recaps and previews every tournament from numerous angles. Look for his following contributions as scheduled. MONDAY: Power Rankings (THE NORTHERN TRUST) TUESDAY*: Power Rankings (FedExCup Playoffs); Sleepers; Fantasy Insider SUNDAY: Qualifiers, Reshuffle, Rookie Watch * – Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, which also publishes on Tuesday.

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LAS VEGAS - Sergio Garcia was putting with his eyes closed on the way to victory last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship but they were wide open when he holed out for a timely eagle on Friday at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. The veteran Spaniard connected from 111 yards with his lob wedge on the par-4 6th hole at TPC Summerlin to reinvigorate his charge up the leaderboard and put him in position for back-to-back wins on TOUR. After a first round 5-under 66 had him sitting four shots off the pace, Garcia made an early second-round climb with four birdies in his opening seven holes only to then stall with seven straight pars. RELATED: Full leaderboard | Fowler makes putter switch But his magical eagle boosted him to double digits under par and a closing birdie helped him to a 64 and 12 under total, just two back of early pace-setters Patrick Cantlay and Martin Laird. "I hit a really nice shot just right of the hole a with a tiny little draw. Obviously saw the ball bounce just right of the hole and spun," Garcia said of the hole-out. "From where I was you couldn’t quite see it, so I saw a little bit and I thought it hit the hole or hit the flag and I thought it stayed next to it. Obviously the little amount of people that were there, they kind of went crazy. It was nice to know that it was in." Garcia's win in Jackson last week was his first on the PGA TOUR since the 2017 Masters and first anywhere in over a year. The 40-year-old knows when opportunities come you need to take advantage so he doesn't intend to step off the gas this weekend. "When you have one of those good moments, you try to enjoy it as much as possible and hopefully make the most out of it," he said. Joining him at 12 under is another veteran who recently arrested a form slide. Stewart Cink won the Safeway Open last month for his first victory since 2009. The renewed purple patch continued with a T12 last week and now he is once again in the mix. Cink was dropping putts from everywhere and had two eagles during his 8-under 63 on Friday. All up he made 133 feet, seven inches of putts Friday which had him gaining four shots on the morning wave in Strokes Gained: Putting. "It wasn’t like it was a ton of bombs, but I hit it 15 feet a lot and a lot of those went in," the 47-year-old Cink said. "I’ve made some changes in my game the last month or so and it's paid off really quickly with a win, and now it’s just fun to get out there and wail on the driver and see the shots. Golf is a fun game when you got things going right, and hopefully let it last a long time."

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A year ago, Jordan Spieth’s return to the PGA TOUR winner’s circle at the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio was the culmination of months of elite play. A Saturday 61 at TPC Scottsdale launched him into contention at the WM Phoenix Open, where he was tied for the lead entering the final round (he ultimately tied for fourth). He would hold the outright 54-hole lead the following week at Pebble Beach, then post strong finishes at The Genesis Invitational (T-15), Arnold Palmer Invitational (T-4) and WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (lost in round of 16). Spieth’s ascent would peak in his home state of Texas, then carry on to a strong performance at Augusta National. How did he rediscover his best golf, and how close is he to finding it again? Spring Forward When Spieth arrived to the 2021 WM Phoenix Open, he was in the statistical doldrums. He ranked 204th on TOUR for the season in Strokes Gained: Approach, and not much better in scoring average (183rd). Of 242 players to statistically qualify to that point in the season, only 11 were hitting fewer greens in regulation than Spieth (59.4%). His Official World Golf Ranking had dropped to 92nd, his worst position since the summer of 2013, the week before his first TOUR victory at the John Deere Classic. Then, Scottsdale happened. Across the months of February and March of 2021, Spieth ranked third on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Approach per round, trailing only Collin Morikawa and Sergio Garcia. His form with his iron play during that stretch – gaining 1.20 strokes per round via approach shots – well-surpassed what he did in 2015, when he was PGA TOUR Player of the Year. That season, he averaged about 0.62 Strokes Gained: Approach per round, 11th-best on TOUR. Spieth’s putting improved during the stretch, too, but not to the levels of his approach game. In February and March, Spieth ranked 37th on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting, a big jump from earlier in the season (0.06 per round, 119th). In all, 67% of Spieth’s total strokes gained during this stretch came from his stellar approaches. At TPC San Antonio, Spieth’s incredible improvement in his wedge game led him to victory. He led the field for the week in average proximity from 50 to 125 yards (10 feet, 5 inches). His average distance from the hole in those situations was more than 10 feet better than the field average for the tournament. This was especially significant considering where Spieth was with this part of his game months prior: entering Phoenix, he ranked 235th on TOUR from that range (23 feet, 4 inches), limiting his birdie possibilities after having wedge in his hands. The ball-striking trend continued down Magnolia Lane into The Masters. The 2015 champion ranked in the top 10 that week in both Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Strokes Gained: Approach. No player gained more strokes than Spieth did tee-to-green (3.44 per round) for the tournament. It was his putting that let him down – of 54 players to make the cut, only three had a worse Strokes Gained: Putting performance than Spieth for the week. Spieth wouldn’t win again in 2020-21, but he got awfully close a couple of times. He finished runner-up at both the Charles Schwab Challenge and at The Open Championship. He put together eight consecutive tournaments where he amassed positive Strokes Gained: Approach, something he did in fewer than half of his starts in 2020. By the time the season concluded, Spieth had ascended from 161st to 24th in scoring average. Recent Outlook While Spieth got close at Pebble Beach earlier this year (2nd place, two behind winner Tom Hoge), his form statistically hasn’t been as sharp since spring of last year. That isn’t to say Spieth has been playing poorly: he’s averaging positive strokes gained per round in every discipline. During that span, he’s a respectable 37th on TOUR among qualified players in scoring average. This season, he’s averaging his most Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee per round since 2018 and is in the top 25 in average driving distance for the first time. Again, the biggest statistical difference between Spieth’s recent play and when he was red-hot comes from his approach numbers. Spieth is gaining just 0.14 strokes per round with his approach play since last May, a drop-off of more than a full stroke from that February-March stretch. It adds up to more than 4 strokes per 72 holes, a deficit that is virtually impossible to overcome with the other facets of his game. As for that wedge play that was so good in San Antonio a year ago: This season, Spieth is ranked a strong 20th in average proximity from 50-125 yards, at 16 feet, 1 inch. However, his average score to par in those situations – just -0.07 to par – is ranked 168th. Spieth simply hasn’t been converting those opportunities – the TOUR average from that position is -0.16, more than twice as good in relation to par. No player in each of the next two TOUR fields has had as much success on those courses as Spieth has. A return to friendly confines could be just what’s needed to bring out the best in the 12-time TOUR winner.

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