Officialsportsbetting.com Golf Betting Statistical predictions for the FedExCup Playoffs

Statistical predictions for the FedExCup Playoffs

This month, we are providing predictions for the 2017 FedExCup Playoffs, the four-tournament run that begins this week at THE NORTHERN TRUST. The predictions are probabilistic; using 30,000 simulations from our statistical model, for each player in this week’s field, we calculate their probability of advancing to the Dell Technologies Championship, the BMW Championship, the TOUR Championship, and finally, of being crowned the 2017 FedExCup Champion. Additionally, we provide predictions for this week’s event at Glen Oaks Club. Let’s get right to the predictions. (For those interested, details on our model are provided after the tables). We have taken into account those players who have publicly stated their intentions to not play in certain Playoff events. Here are the relevant probabilities for the 30 players with the highest probability of winning the 2017 FedExCup: The results are pretty interesting. First, the top 3 players (Hideki Matsuyama, Dustin Johnson, and Jordan Spieth) capture the lion’s share of the win probability for the FedExCup (52.1 percent!). This is really high; for context, at a major championship, the top 3 win probabilities would typically add up to about 14-17 percent. Second, while a player’s starting rank is clearly important, there are some players who are further down in the rankings that have fairly high win probabilities (Jason Day, Roryt McIlroy). This is mainly due to the fact that to win the FedExCup, you likely have to win an event along the way (and a player like McIlroy is more likely to do this than some of the players currently ranked above him in the FedExCup). Third, notice that the top 10 players in the current FedExCup rankings are guaranteed a spot in the TOUR Championship. Next, we highlight the players who are near the bubble for advancing to next week’s Dell Technologies Championship. Specifically, here are numbers 83 to 118 in the current FedExCup standings, ordered according to a player’s probability of advancing to next week: Notice that all players ranked 83rd or better in the current standings are guaranteed to advance to next week. According to our model, there are 10-12 spots that are really up for grabs (depending how much of a sure thing you feel 90 percent is). Finally, we have also predicted each player’s probability of winning, finishing in the top 5, finishing in the top 20, and making the cut at THE NORTHERN TRUST. Here are the 25 players with the highest win probabilities this week: To view the full interactive tables for the FedExCup Playoffs predictions, click here and for THE NORTHERN TRUST, click here. Now, a bit about our model and how we simulate a round of golf. If you understand how to simulate a single round, then it’s not a big step to understanding how we simulate the FedExCup. Keeping things as simple as possible, our statistical model can be thought of as proceeding in two steps. First, we assign each player an expected score, based off of various characteristics of the player. For example, two-year scoring average is one input, as is the player’s performance at his previous event (although the former is much more important than the latter). Second, to simulate a round of golf with our model, we add a mean-zero random term to each player’s expected score. So, while Rory McIlroy has a better expected score than most other players, in some simulations he will lose to players who have worse expected scores than him because he got a bad draw of his random term (or the other golfers got very good draws). Additionally, players who are more consistent are given less variation in their random term. We perform many simulations, and from these we can calculate the desired probabilities (ex: McIlroy’s win probability is defined as the fraction of simulations where he was the winner). The full details on our statistical model for predicting PGA TOUR events can be found here. Brothers Matt and Will Courchene grew up in a Canadian household full of golf fanatics. In 2016, they launched a DataGolf blog in hopes of contributing fresh and unbiased insights to the sport. Matt, a PhD student at the Vancouver School of Economics, focuses on applied econometrics and causal inference, while Will, who has a Masters of Economics from the University of Toronto, focuses on statistical modeling and data visualization.

Click here to read the full article

Did you know you can also play slots at Bovada online sportsbook? Check our our partner site for the best slots at Bovada casino and sportsbook.

3rd Round 2-Balls - A. Ayora vs E. Molinari
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Angel Ayora-110
Edoardo Molinari+120
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - F. Lacroix vs A. Wilson
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Frederic Lacroix-125
Andrew Wilson+135
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - B. Robinson-Thompson vs D. Erickson
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Brandon Robinson-Thompson-140
Dan Erickson+150
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - R. Johnston vs J. Luiten
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Joost Luiten-150
Ryggs Johnston+160
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - E. Ferguson vs M. Lindberg
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Ewen Ferguson-150
Mikael Lindberg+160
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - G. Migliozzi vs J. Campillo
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Jorge Campillo+100
Guido Migliozzi+110
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - C. Sordet vs T. Christensen
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Clement Sordet-140
Tiger Christensen+150
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - T. Clements vs Y. Paul
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Yannik Paul-110
Todd Clements+120
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - R. Williams vs H. Li
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Haotong Li-190
Robin Williams+200
Tie+750
Myrtle Beach Classic
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Mackenzie Hughes+275
Danny Walker+800
Cristobal Del Solar+1600
Harry Higgs+1600
Kevin Yu+1600
Davis Shore+2000
Ryan Fox+2000
Andrew Putnam+2500
Nick Watney+2500
Norman Xiong+2500
Click here for more...
3rd Round Six-Shooter - M. Hughes / K. Yu / T. Olesen / S. Valimaki / A. Smalley / R. Fox
Type: 3rd Round Six-Shooter - Status: OPEN
Mackenzie Hughes+350
Alex Smalley+425
Kevin Yu+425
Samli Valimaki+425
Thorbjorn Olesen+425
Ryan Fox+500
3rd Round Six-Shooter - Group B - D. Walker / W. Chandler / H. Higgs / C. Del Solar / D. Shore / N. Watney
Type: 3rd Round Six-Shooter - Status: OPEN
Danny Walker+260
Harry Higgs+375
Davis Shore +450
Will Chandler+500
Cristobal Del Solar+550
Nick Watney+550
3rd Round 2-Balls - W. Nienaber vs M. Couvra
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Martin Couvra-105
Wilco Nienaber+115
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - M. Kim / J. Rose
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Justin Rose+105
Michael Kim+105
Tie+750
3rd Round Six-Shooter - Group A - S. Straka / S.W. Kim / S. Lowry / A. Bhatia / K. Mitchell / T. Finau
Type: 3rd Round Six-Shooter - Status: OPEN
Sepp Straka+335
Shane Lowry+335
Keith Mitchell+450
Si Woo Kim+450
Akshay Bathia+500
Tony Finau+550
3rd Round Six-Shooter - Group B - R. McIIroy / P. Cantlay / J. Thomas / X. Schauffele / C. Morikawa / V. Hovland
Type: 3rd Round Six-Shooter - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+240
Justin Thomas+400
Collin Morikawa+450
Patrick Cantlay+475
Xander Schauffele+475
Viktor Hovland+700
3rd Round Six-Shooter - Group C - S. Jaeger / H. English / T. Detry / G. Woodland / M. Homa / R. Fowler
Type: 3rd Round Six-Shooter - Status: OPEN
Stephan Jaeger+375
Harris English+400
Max Homa+400
Thomas Detry+400
Gary Woodland+475
Rickie Fowler+500
3rd Round Scores - Shane Lowry
Type: 3rd Round Scores - Status: OPEN
Over 68.5+105
Under 68.5-135
3rd Round Scores - Rory McIIroy
Type: 3rd Round Scores - Status: OPEN
Over 67.5+115
Under 67.5-150
3rd Round Scores - Sepp Straka
Type: 3rd Round Scores - Status: OPEN
Over 68.5+100
Under 68.5-130
3rd Round Scores - Collin Morikawa
Type: 3rd Round Scores - Status: OPEN
Over 67.5-130
Under 67.5+100
3rd Round Scores - Justin Thomas
Type: 3rd Round Scores - Status: OPEN
Over 68.5+120
Under 68.5-155
3rd Round Scores - Patrick Cantlay
Type: 3rd Round Scores - Status: OPEN
Over 68.5+115
Under 68.5-150
3rd Round Scores - Akshay Bhatia
Type: 3rd Round Scores - Status: OPEN
Over 68.5-125
Under 68.5-105
3rd Round Scores - Si Woo Kim
Type: 3rd Round Scores - Status: OPEN
Over 68.5-120
Under 68.5-110
3rd Round Scores - Xander Schauffele
Type: 3rd Round Scores - Status: OPEN
Over 68.5+120
Under 68.5-155
3rd Round Scores - Max Homa
Type: 3rd Round Scores - Status: OPEN
Over 69.5+100
Under 69.5-130
Shane Lowry
Type: Shane Lowry - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish-200
Top 10 Finish-500
Top 20 Finish-2000
Keith Mitchell
Type: Keith Mitchell - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish-225
Top 10 Finish-600
Top 20 Finish-2500
Rory McIlroy
Type: Rory McIlroy - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish-150
Top 10 Finish-350
Top 20 Finish-1000
Sepp Straka
Type: Sepp Straka - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish-125
Top 10 Finish-350
Top 20 Finish-1000
Collin Morikawa
Type: Collin Morikawa - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+150
Top 10 Finish-175
Top 20 Finish-500
Justin Thomas
Type: Justin Thomas - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+180
Top 10 Finish-150
Top 20 Finish-500
Patrick Cantlay
Type: Patrick Cantlay - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+180
Top 10 Finish-150
Top 20 Finish-400
Si Woo Kim
Type: Si Woo Kim - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+350
Top 10 Finish+120
Top 20 Finish-250
Akshay Bhatia
Type: Akshay Bhatia - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+350
Top 10 Finish+130
Top 20 Finish-200
Xander Schauffele
Type: Xander Schauffele - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+600
Top 10 Finish+220
Top 20 Finish-150
Sungjae Im
Type: Sungjae Im - Status: OPEN
Top 5 Finish+700
Top 10 Finish+200
Top 20 Finish-125
3rd Round 2-Balls - W. Clark / L. Glover
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Lucas Glover+110
Wyndham Clark+100
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - C. Kirk / W. Zalatoris
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Chris Kirk+120
Will Zalatoris-110
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - M. Pavon / T. Hoge
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Matthieu Pavon+130
Tom Hoge-120
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - S. Theegala / M. Greyserman
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Max Greyserman+110
Sahith Theegala+100
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - R. Gerard / A. Hadwin
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Adam Hadwin+120
Ryan Gerard-110
Tie+750
Mizuho Americas Open
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Nelly Korda+260
Jeeno Thitikul+400
Andrea Lee+1100
Somi Lee+1100
Celine Boutier+1200
Stephanie Kyriacou+1600
Carlota Ciganda+1800
Lydia Ko+2000
Minjee Lee+2500
Yealimi Noh+2500
Click here for more...
3rd Round 2-Balls - B. Harman / A. Eckroat
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Austin Eckroat+125
Brian Harman-115
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - B. Campbell / P. Rodgers
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Brian Campbell+135
Patrick Rodgers-125
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - R. Henley / V. Hovland
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Russell Henley+110
Viktor Hovland+100
Tie+750
3rd Round Match-Ups - X. Schauffele vs V. Hovland
Type: 3rd Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Xander Schauffele-135
Viktor Hovland+115
3rd Round 2-Balls - B. Hun An / C. Davis
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Byeong Hun An-110
Cam Davis+120
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - C. Conners / A. Scott
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Adam Scott+145
Corey Conners-130
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - J. Bridgeman / J. Highsmith
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Jacob Bridgeman-120
Joe Highsmith+130
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - N. Dunlap / G. Higgo
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Garrick Higgo-120
Nick Dunlap+130
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - M. Fitzpatrick / C. Bezuidenhout
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Christiaan Bezuidenhout+120
Matt Fitzpatrick-110
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - M. Thorbjornsen / J. Spieth
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Jordan Spieth-145
Michael Thorbjornsen+160
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - J.J. Spaun / A. Novak
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Andrew Novak+105
J J Spaun+105
Tie+750
3rd Round Match-Ups - A. Novak vs M. McNealy
Type: 3rd Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Maverick McNealy-116
Andrew Novak-105
3rd Round 2-Balls - D. Thompson / A. Rai
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Aaron Rai+105
Davis Thompson+105
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - N. Norgaard / S. Valimaki
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Sami Valimaki+100
Niklas Norgaard+110
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - D. Berger / R. MacIntyre
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Daniel Berger-115
Robert MacIntyre+125
Tie+750
3rd Round Match-Ups - D. Berger vs T. Fleetwood
Type: 3rd Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Daniel Berger-110
Tommy Fleetwood-110
3rd Round 2-Balls - H. Buckley / T. Phillips
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Hayden Buckley+100
Trent Phillips+110
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - L. Aberg / H. Matsuyama
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Hideki Matsuyama+120
Ludvig Aberg-110
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - E. Grillo / C. Young
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Emiliano Grillo+100
Carson Young+110
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - M.W. Lee / M. McNealy
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Maverick McNealy+110
Min Woo Lee+100
Tie+750
3rd Round Match-Ups - M.W. Lee vs K. Bradley
Type: 3rd Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Min Woo Lee-115
Keegan Bradley-105
3rd Round 2-Balls - C. Hadley / T. Olesen
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Thorbjorn Olesen-160
Chesson Hadley+180
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - C. Young / E. Cole
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Cameron Young+120
Eric Cole-110
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - R. Fox / T. Widing
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Ryan Fox-130
Tim Widing+140
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - R. Hojgaard / B. Griffin
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Ben Griffin+100
Rasmus Hojgaard+110
Tie+750
3rd Round Match-Ups - B. Griffin vs S. Jaeger
Type: 3rd Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Stephan Jaeger-115
Ben Griffin-105
3rd Round 2-Balls - X. Schauffele / T. Pendrith
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Taylor Pendrith+150
Xander Schauffele-135
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - K. Yu / A. Putnam
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Kevin Yu-125
Andrew Putnam+135
Tie+750
3rd Round Match-Ups - D. McCarthy vs T. Pendrith
Type: 3rd Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Denny McCarthy-110
Taylor Pendrith-110
3rd Round 2-Balls - B. Silverman / P. Kizzire
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Ben Silverman+100
Patton Kizzire+110
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - K. Bradley / T. Fleetwood
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Keegan Bradley+130
Tommy Fleetwood-120
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - D. Shore / N. Xiong
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Norman Xiong-120
Davis Shore+130
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - N. Taylor / E. Van Rooyen
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Nick Taylor-105
Erik Van Rooyen+115
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - N. Watney / W. Chandler
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Will Chandler-105
Nick Watney+115
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - S. Burns / J.T. Poston
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
J.T. Poston+110
Sam Burns+100
Tie+750
3rd Round Match-Ups - S. Burns vs S. Im
Type: 3rd Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Sungjae Im-115
Sam Burns-105
3rd Round Match-Ups - S. Stevens vs J.T. Poston
Type: 3rd Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
J.T. Poston-115
Sam Stevens-105
3rd Round 2-Balls - H. Higgs / D. Walker
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Danny Walker-125
Harry Higgs+140
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - S. Im / A. Noren
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Alex Noren+145
Sungjae Im-130
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - M. Hughes / C. Del Solar
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Mackenzie Hughes-185
Cristobal Del Solar+210
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - S. Stevens / D. McCarthy
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Denny McCarthy+100
Sam Stevens+110
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - T. Finau / H. English
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Harris English+110
Tony Finau+100
Tie+750
3rd Round Match-Ups - A. Bhatia vs T. Finau
Type: 3rd Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Tony Finau-115
Akshay Bhatia-105
3rd Round 2-Balls - R. Fowler / G. Woodland
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Gary Woodland+100
Rickie Fowler+110
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - Y. Noh / K. Gillman
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Yealimi Noh-160
Kristen Gillman+180
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - T. Detry / S. Jaeger
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Stephan Jaeger-105
Thomas Detry+115
Tie+750
3rd Round Match-Ups - M. Homa / T. Detry
Type: 3rd Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Max Homa-110
Thomas Detry-110
3rd Round 2-Balls - J. Thitikul / H. Naveed
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Jeeno Thitikul-250
Hira Naveed+280
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - P. Cantlay / M. Homa
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Max Homa+170
Patrick Cantlay-155
Tie+750
3rd Round Match-Ups - P. Cantlay vs J. Thomas
Type: 3rd Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Justin Thomas-115
Patrick Cantlay-105
3rd Round 2-Balls - C. Boutier / J. Lopez
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Celine Boutier-180
Julia Lopez Ramirez+200
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - A. Bhatia / S.W. Kim
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Akshay Bhatia+115
Si Woo Kim-105
Tie+750
3rd Round Match-Ups - S.W. Kim vs K. Mitchell
Type: 3rd Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Si Woo Kim-115
Keith Mitchell-105
3rd Round 2-Balls - C. Cinganda / J. Bae
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Carlota Ciganda-145
Jenny Bae+160
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - R. McIIroy / C. Morikawa
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Collin Morikawa+140
Rory McIlroy-125
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - A. Lee / S. Kyriacou
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Andrea Lee+105
Stephanie Kyriacou+105
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - S. Straka / J. Thomas
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Justin Thomas-130
Sepp Straka+145
Tie+750
3rd Round Match-Ups - S. Lowry vs S. Straka
Type: 3rd Round Match-Ups - Status: OPEN
Shane Lowry-115
Sepp Straka-105
3rd Round 2-Balls - K. Mitchell / S. Lowry
Type: Including Tie - Status: OPEN
Keith Mitchell+130
Shane Lowry-120
Tie+750
3rd Round 2-Balls - N. Korda / S. Lee
Type: 3rd Round 2-Balls - Status: OPEN
Nelly Korda-155
Somi Lee+170
Tie+750
Major Specials 2025
Type: To Win A Major 2025 - Status: OPEN
Scottie Scheffler+160
Bryson DeChambeau+350
Xander Schauffele+350
Ludvig Aberg+400
Collin Morikawa+450
Jon Rahm+450
Justin Thomas+550
Brooks Koepka+700
Viktor Hovland+700
Hideki Matsuyama+800
Click here for more...
PGA Championship 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+450
Scottie Scheffler+450
Bryson DeChambeau+1200
Ludvig Aberg+1600
Xander Schauffele+1800
Justin Thomas+2000
Collin Morikawa+2200
Jon Rahm+2200
Joaquin Niemann+3000
Viktor Hovland+3500
Click here for more...
US Open 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+500
Scottie Scheffler+500
Bryson DeChambeau+1200
Xander Schauffele+1200
Jon Rahm+1400
Ludvig Aberg+1400
Collin Morikawa+1600
Brooks Koepka+1800
Justin Thomas+2000
Viktor Hovland+2000
Click here for more...
The Open 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+500
Scottie Scheffler+550
Xander Schauffele+1100
Ludvig Aberg+1400
Collin Morikawa+1600
Jon Rahm+1600
Bryson DeChambeau+2000
Shane Lowry+2500
Tommy Fleetwood+2500
Tyrrell Hatton+2500
Click here for more...
Ryder Cup 2025
Type: Winner - Status: OPEN
USA-150
Europe+140
Tie+1200

Related Post

Willie Mack III makes first PGA TOUR cut at Rocket Mortgage ClassicWillie Mack III makes first PGA TOUR cut at Rocket Mortgage Classic

DETROIT — Willie Mack III shot a second-round 73 to finish 3 under to make his first PGA TOUR cut. After bogeys on holes 7, 11 and 16, there was no margin for error. From short of the 18th green, he chipped to 4 1/2 feet and made the par putt. His friends and family, some wearing Willie Mack III T-shirts, exhaled and cheered. Wayne Birch, who caddies for Troy Merritt (68, 9 under) and had returned to the course after Merritt finished, held up his phone to capture the moment. “I probably was more nervous than he was,” said Birch, who played for Southern University before embarking on his career as a caddie. “In the Black community in golf, we all knew, all of us who played at a high level, that Willie is next up. This is so big.” Mack, 32, hasn’t gotten much sleep. Darkness halted play with three holes remaining in his first round, so he woke up early and played 21 holes Friday. His supporters were there for every shot. “Yeah, I heard some of my friends,” he said. “I wasn’t looking, but I know their voices, so I heard them. It’s exciting to just be able to play in your hometown amongst friends and family.” Friday marked a historic chapter in one of the game’s least likely origin stories. The son of a social worker, Mack grew up in nearby Flint, a town that became synonymous with the loss of manufacturing jobs in America. He scrounged for equipment, and when his high school team discontinued its golf team his sophomore year, his dad moved them to Grand Blanc. Mack’s new school won the 2004 state championship. He won the Flint City Amateur three times, and in 2011 was the first Black player to win the Michigan Amateur. He played for the only school to give him a full-ride scholarship, HBCU Bethune-Cookman, and won 11 times. Life as a pro, though, was no picnic. He lived in his car for a year and a half, slept in friends’ spare bedrooms. Insiders knew how good he was, but the full array of his talents remained mostly hidden. Golf Channel’s Ryan Lavner noted that the first time Mack worked with well-known instructor Todd Anderson at TPC Sawgrass – part of the PGA TOUR’s commitment to the minority-focused APGA Tour – Anderson asked, “How are you not on TOUR yet?” A lack of funds didn’t help. When he qualified to play PGA TOUR Latinoamerica in 2018, Mack – the winner of more than 60 minitour titles – didn’t play the circuit because the cost was prohibitive. Last year, though, his career took a quantum leap when Farmers Insurance signed him and fellow APGA star Kamaiu Johnson to two-year deals as player ambassadors. Since then, Mack’s opportunities have kept rolling in. The 2019 Player of the Year on the APGA and the Florida Pro Golf Tour, he filled in for Johnson at the 11th hour at the Farmers Insurance Open earlier this year. Although he missed the cut (74-75) he beat a handful of TOUR winners. Mack also got into The Genesis Invitational in L.A. as the Charlie Sifford Exemption recipient. He again missed the cut (70-76) but finished ahead of Rory McIlroy, among others. He also had a leisurely lunch with tournament host Tiger Woods, his childhood idol. He estimates he has played Detroit Golf Club hundreds of times, although not always with such wet fairways and swirling winds. Although he got to 6 under and just three off the lead through six holes of his second round, he was 3 over from there, leading to some tense moments. “I’m just so happy for him,” Birch said. “It’s so inspiring. My dream was to play on the PGA TOUR, but that’s over with. With Willie – it’s almost like I’m living through him. It just goes to show that if you keep grinding, stay the course, and believe in yourself, anything can happen.” Birch and Mack were part of a group that would be going to watch the Detroit Tigers on Friday night, and they’ll have plenty to celebrate. Mack’s biggest career paycheck to date is $37,000, and now he’ll be playing for a lot more than that over the weekend on a course he knows well. Whatever happens, he’ll play in the John Deere Classic next week. It’s an exciting time. “I went to go get some food last night,” he said. “I think I got about three hours of sleep. I’m tired, but I think adrenaline kept me going and hopefully it can hold up for the next two days.”

Click here to read the full article