Criminal expert: Tiger Woods made mistake issuing statement

The 10th of 24 contributing events for PGA TOUR Champions One & Done presented by SERVPRO is this week’s Regions Tradition. It’s the first of five majors, all of which are contested over 72 holes and begin on Thursdays. Scroll for tournament notes, 22 notables and four wild cards from the field of 78 in Birmingham, Alabama. No matter what you think you know, you don’t, you know? With proper and deserved respect to open qualifier Ryan Baca and North Texas PGA Section representative Brian Norman, neither are likely to generate enthusiasm for even two-man gamers at the AT&T Byron Nelson. See, they are the only two in the field of 156 with competitive course experience at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas. At the 2017 Texas State Open, Baca placed T10 and Norman finished T53. The 47th edition of the esteemed competition also included recognizable names like former PGA TOUR members Edward Loar (T15), Hunter Haas and Craig Kanada – the latter two of whom withdrew mid-tournament — among a handful of other blasts from the past for the truly hardcore (e.g. Brady Watt, Stuart Deane and “Mr. 57” Curtis Reed). Certainly, our own Sean Martin could have penned a Power Rankings for that event and made me blush. The moral of this story is that none of those guys are One & Done-worthy, but they’re the golfers with the muscle memory and some idea of where to miss on the collaboration by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw. At the head of the class among short-listers in PGA TOUR Fantasy One & Done presented by SERVPRO are locals Jordan Spieth and Beau Hossler, but only Hossler demands serious consideration. Sorry, Sean, but the massive unknown favors the field. Your advised strategy is to review how you’d arrange available golfers on your board for later stops. It’s the essence at the core of the existence of Future Possibilities below. However, you still need to leave yourself with a chip for the AT&T Byron Nelson. I’ve already burned Marc Leishman, but he’d be the most logical at Trinity Forest. Aside from his reputation in the wind, he’s proven comfortable and confident on links-style tracks. And with four top 10s in 2018 alone, he presents no reason to wait. Jimmy Walker is back on the rise and doesn’t line up exceptionally strong the rest of the way. The Texan is the epitome of striking while the irons are hot and while we’re essentially in the dark. Form over everything else, gang. Like Walker, Adam Scott is the kind of chalk to which we can turn just to sleep better. A top 20 would be a net-positive as the Aussie continues to grind through relative adversity. He could emerge as a candidate again later, but the blank canvas of this week serves as a sensible time to circle him now. Billy Horschel is the defending champion on a different course. His recent uptick after finding magic with a familiar putter furnishes all the confidence we need to latch on, but his record at the FedEx St. Jude Classic is phenomenal and should be embraced. Holster. Because I view Matt Kuchar as a wild card who fits in almost everywhere but often doesn’t win tiebreakers, he’s my pick. As I wrote in the Power Rankings, he placed second at the 2017 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale, which Jordan Spieth used as a comp to Trinity Forest. Sold. Martin Laird and Branden Grace are seriously tempting. Laird is a beast at the Barracuda Championship contested the same week as the World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational where fellow Barracuda go-to’s Gary Woodland and Brendan Steele will be competing. Grace makes more sense at Trinity Forest and easily could have slotted higher than No. 11 in my Power Rankings. Since two-man gamers won’t be flipping a coin between Baca and Norman, saddle Hossler into the back seat. FUTURE POSSIBILITIES NOTE: Select golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held in 2017-18. The numerical values in parentheses represent the order of relative confidence of where to use each golfer if multiple sites are listed (e.g. 1 for strongest, 2 for next-strongest and so on). To present weighted confidence in real time, numerical values will not change all season no matter how many tournament remain listed for each golfer. All are pending golfer commitment. Sergio Garcia … Open Championship (1); TOUR Championship (4) Branden Grace … U.S. Open (4); WGC-Bridgestone (3) Bill Haas … Wyndham (2) J.B. Holmes … Greenbrier (5) Billy Horschel … St. Jude (1); TOUR Championship (4) Russell Knox … Dell Technologies (7) Matt Kuchar … Fort Worth (6); Memorial (2); Canadian (3); WGC-Bridgestone (7); THE NORTHERN TRUST (9) Martin Laird … Barracuda (1) Marc Leishman … Fort Worth (7); Memorial (5); Travelers (2); Open Championship (1) Hideki Matsuyama … Memorial (10); U.S. Open (6); WGC-Bridgestone (8; defending) Graeme McDowell … WGC-Bridgestone (3) Kevin Na … Memorial (10); John Deere (9); Wyndham (3); THE NORTHERN TRUST (11) Ryan Palmer … Fort Worth (2); St. Jude (6) Scott Piercy … John Deere (6) Adam Scott … U.S. Open (10); Open Championship (8); WGC-Bridgestone (3); Dell Technologies (9); TOUR Championship (6) Brandt Snedeker … Fort Worth (11); U.S. Open (5); Travelers (6); Canadian (3); Wyndham (4) Jordan Spieth … Fort Worth (2); Travelers (6; defending); John Deere (7); Open Championship (9; defending); WGC-Bridgestone (10); TOUR Championship (4) Jimmy Walker … Greenbrier (8); Dell Technologies (7) CHAMPIONS ONE & DONE Regions Tradition Greystone Golf & Country Club in Birmingham, Alabama, hosts for the third consecutive year. It’s an unusual par 72 in that there are five par 3s and five par 5s. It’ll tip at 7,277 yards. Like all majors on the PGA TOUR Champions, it begins on Thursday. However, it’s one of only two majors (Constellation SENIOR PLAYERS Championship) for which there is no cut. Bernhard Langer is the two-time defending champion. He’s also the PGA TOUR Champions’ most recent winner at the Insperity Invitational, which came on the heels of consecutive playoff losses in the previous two tournaments. As a result, the 60-year-old sits atop the Schwab Cup money list. Total prize money for the Regions Tradition is $2.4 million. The champion will pocket $360,000. This is the most lucrative event of the season thus far. It’s fourth-most overall behind the U.S. Senior Open Championship ($4 million), the KitchenAid Senior PGA Championship (estimated $2.8-$3.0 million) and Constellation SENIOR PLAYERS Championship ($2.8 million). FUTURE POSSIBILITIES NOTE: Select golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held in 2018. The numerical values in parentheses represent the order of relative confidence of where to use each golfer if multiple sites are listed (e.g. 1 for strongest, 2 for next-strongest and so on). To present weighted confidence in real time, numerical values will not change all season no matter how many tournament remain listed for each golfer. All are pending golfer commitment. Stephen Ames … Principal (8); U.S. Senior Open (6); Boeing (2); Shaw (7) Joe Durant … Principal (2); American Family (8); U.S. Senior Open (7); SENIOR PLAYERS (1); 3M (6); DICK’S (12); Boeing (10); Shaw (11); PURE (3); SAS (13) David Frost … U.S. Senior Open (4); 3M (7); Boeing (5); Shaw (8); PURE (1) Fred Funk … Regions Tradition (3); Boeing (6); PURE (5) Doug Garwood … SAS (1) Paul Goydos … 3M (1; defending); DICK’S (3); SAS (5) Lee Janzen … U.S. Senior Open (2) Miguel Angel Jiménez … Senior PGA (6); Principal (10); U.S. Senior Open (5); SENIOR PLAYERS (3); Senior Open Championship (4); 3M (9); Shaw (7); SAS (12) Brandt Jobe … Senior PGA (2); Principal (3; defending); U.S. Senior Open (4); SENIOR PLAYERS (1); 3M (5); Boeing (8) Jerry Kelly … Boeing (1; defending); Shaw (5); PURE (2); SAS (4) Bernhard Langer … Usable everywhere. Defending five titles. Tom Lehman … Regions Tradition (5); Principal (1); U.S. Senior Open (3); SAS (9) Jeff Maggert … American Family (3); Shaw (5) Scott McCarron … Regions Tradition (2); Senior PGA (11); Principal (1); SENIOR PLAYERS (3; defending); Senior Open Championship (10); DICK’S (4; defending); Shaw (5; defending); PURE (8) Colin Montgomerie … Senior PGA (1); U.S. Senior Open (6); SENIOR PLAYERS (2); Senior Open Championship (10); Shaw (4); PURE (7); SAS (3; defending) Tom Pernice, Jr. … Principal Charity (2); Shaw (3); SAS (5) Kenny Perry … Regions Tradition (5); Senior PGA (6); 3M (1); DICK’S (10); SAS (2) Gene Sauers … Regions Tradition (3); U.S. Senior Open (5); SENIOR PLAYERS (6); Boeing (1) Vijay Singh … Senior PGA (3); U.S. Senior Open (2); Shaw (5); SAS (1) Kevin Sutherland … Usable everywhere. David Toms … Regions Tradition (3); Boeing (2); SAS (4) Duffy Waldorf … Principal (6); Shaw (5) WILD CARDS (short list of golfers not included above but on the rise or still building portfolios after recently turning 50): Bob Estes; Steve Flesch; Scott Parel; Steve Stricker

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In the storied career of Tiger Woods, the 2009 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard is a statistical oddity. Of Tiger’s 79 stroke-play victories on the PGA TOUR (82 wins overall, tying Sam Snead’s record), that 2009 tournament is his only win in which he failed to play the par 5s under par for the entire week. He suffered a double bogey at Bay Hill’s par-5 sixth in his opening round and eventually played holes 6 and 12 at even par in winning by one stroke over Sean O’Hair (the course played as a par-70 that week, with two of the traditional par 5s converted to par 4s). Woods’ World Golf Hall of Fame career has been fueled in large part by his dominance on the par 5s, his power advantage providing him more scoring chances than his competitors. As Mark O’Meara once said about Woods and par 5s, “It’s been his trademark … That’s kind of what Tiger Woods is all about.” Twenty years ago at the RBC Canadian Open, Woods produced arguably his most memorable par-5 moment. Using a 6-iron from 218 yards out of the fairway bunker on his second shot, Woods carried the water and found the back fringe of the green to set up his winning birdie. Many consider it the most impressive single shot of his career. No surprise he was 13 under on Glen Abbey’s four par 5s that week. This week, Woods is back in action at The Match: Champions for Charity, in which he’ll team with amateur/NFL legend Peyton Manning against the team of Phil Mickelson-Tom Brady to raise money for COVID-19 relief. The match is at Medalist, Tiger’s home course in south Florida. Naturally, it has four par 5s. Thanks to the ShotLink team at PGA TOUR, here’s a deep dive into the numbers that help explain Tiger’s par-5 dominance in his career. Par-5 Scoring Average The best place to start an examination of Tiger’s par-5 dominance is to look at the most basic category — his scoring average on those holes. From his first full PGA TOUR season in 1997 until his second FedExCup championship in 2009, Tiger Woods led the TOUR in par-5 scoring 10 times in those 13 seasons. No one else led the category more than twice in that span. His best statistical season was 2000, the year he won three majors. Tiger’s par-5 scoring average of 4.37 was 0.13 better than the next player on that list, Vijay Singh — the widest gap that Tiger enjoyed during his time at No. 1. The TOUR average on par 5s that year was 4.72, meaning that Woods was gaining 0.35 strokes on the field every time he played a par 5. Considering Woods played 265 par 5s that year, he gained 93 strokes on the field. Since 1980, Tiger has the three lowest single-season par 5 scoring averages on TOUR — 4.37 in 2000, 4.38 in 2003 and 4.39 in 2001. Justin Thomas is fourth on the list at 4.42 last season. As for the three years Tiger didn’t rank first from 1997-2009? • 2004, when Vijay Singh led the category with a 4.47 scoring average (Tiger was 5th at 4.53) • 2007 when Phil Mickelson was No. 1 with a 4.45 average (Tiger was 2nd at 4.48) • 2008 when Tiger did not meet the minimum number of rounds after having knee surgery following his U.S. Open win at Torrey Pines. His average to that point was 4.46 — had he maintained that, he would’ve ranked No. 1. The next season, Woods averaged 4.43 to again rank No. 1 in par-5 scoring average. It’s the last time he led the TOUR in that category, as a combination of factors (health/other issues, lack of rounds, the rise of younger bombers, simply getting older, etc.) have made an impact in the last decade. Even so, his career scoring average on par 5s is still an impressive 4.49, which would rank inside the top 10 averages when stacked against each of the single-season par-5 scoring average leaders since 2010. Par-5 scoring leaders last 10 years vs. Tiger Woods career average Par 5 Birdies or Better Much like his par-5 stroke averages, Tiger’s par-5 birdie or better statistics show the huge advantage he had with the longest holes. He led the category 10 times between 1997-2009 … and again, no other player in the last 22 years has led it more than twice. Woods has the top five single-season birdie or better percentages since numbers were calculated in 1980. In consecutive seasons, he made birdie or eagle more than 61% of the time on par 5s (61.89% in 2000, 61.22% in 2001). Since 1980, no other player has a percentage higher than Justin Thomas’ 57.34% last season. And again, Woods’ career average of 53.8% in this category slots inside the top 10 compared to single-season percentage leaders last decade. Par-5 birdie or better leaders last 10 years vs. Tiger Woods career average Feasting on Par-72 Courses It’s a pretty easy theory to figure out — the more par 5 holes on a course, the better it is for Tiger. The numbers certainly support that theory. Of his 79 stroke-play wins, 49 have come on par-72 courses. Compare that to par 70s (19 wins), par 71s (10 wins) and the odd par 73 (one win — in 2000 at Kapalua, site of the annual Sentry Tournament of Champions). Percentage-wise, Tiger has converted 29% of his starts on par-72 courses into wins, well above his overall career success rate of 22.7% (82 wins in 361 TOUR starts). All the other percentages are below that career mark — 21% success rate on par-70 layouts, 13% success rate on par 71s and 17% success rate on the few par-73 courses he’s played. Of course, Tiger has racked up many of those par-72 wins at the same course: • 7 wins at Torrey Pines (both courses for the Farmers Insurance Open are par 72s, but his U.S. Open win in 2008 was a par 71 layout) • 6 wins at Bay Hill (two other wins there came when Bay Hill was a par 70) • 5 wins at Muirfield Village • 5 wins at Augusta National • 4 wins at Trump National Doral Interestingly, Woods has more wins on a par-70 course (eight times at Firestone) than any other par/course combination. But maybe having one more par 5 would’ve gotten him the trophy in his hometown event. Instead, he’s 0 for 13 at par-71 Riviera. Tiger’s Toughest Par 5s The raucous par-3 16th at TPC Scottsdale gets all the attention, and in Tiger’s career, it produced a memorable moment with his hole-in-one there in 1997. But the previous hole, the par-5 15th, also is significant for Tiger. It’s the only par 5 in his PGA TOUR career that he’s played at least 10 times with a scoring average over par. Woods has played a total of 89 par-5 holes at least 10 times. His scoring average is below par on 87 of those holes, and he’s even par for another one (No. 5 at Whistling Straits). But the 15th at TPC Scottsdale has been immune to Tiger’s talent, even though it hardly ranks among the toughest par 5s on TOUR. Of the 459 players who have 10 or more rounds at TPC Scottsdale, just 29 of those players (6.3%) have played the 15th over par. That includes Woods, who obviously is not used to being in the bottom 6% of any statistical list. The first time Woods played the 15th was in the first round of the 1997 Waste Management Phoenix Open. His tee shot found the gallery, and he was forced to lay up short of the water with his second shot. His sand wedge landed in the greenside bunker and he failed to get up and down. As the Tucson (Arizona) Citizen dutifully reported the next day, “Bogey six instead of the expected four.” The 15th also is one of five par 5s in Tiger’s career in which he recorded a triple-bogey 8. It came in the second round of the 2015 Waste Management Phoenix Open after he found the water with his tee shot. It was one of just two “others” recorded by the entire field at the 15th that week. The other triple-bogeys Tiger has suffered at par 5s in his TOUR career? 2013 U.S. Open at Merion, hole No. 2, final round; 2013 Masters at Augusta National, hole No. 15, second round; 1999 World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship at Valderrama, hole No. 17, final round; and 1999 Masters at Augusta National, hole No. 8, first round. Woods, by the way, shot an 82 in that 2015 round at TPC Scottsdale, citing problems stemming from a transition to a new swing. It was also the first time he played the 15th at its increased yardage of 553 yards. In his first 12 looks at the 15th, it was listed at 501 yards on the scorecard. Overall, Woods has four birdies, seven pars, two bogeys and that triple bogey in his 14 trips through TPC Scottsdale’s 15th. He has not been back to the tournament since that triple bogey. Tiger’s Toughest Par 5s on TOUR (minimum 10 rounds) Tiger’s Easiest Par 5s Consider it the ultimate scale of justice. TPC Scottsdale not only is the site of Tiger’s toughest par 5, it also has offered the easiest par 5 in his career at the 13th hole. In fact, it’s the only hole in Tiger’s career — regardless of par — in which he’s averaged a full stroke under par. In other words, it’s the easiest hole he’s ever played on TOUR (minimum of 10 rounds). In his 14 trips through the 13th — the yardage has varied between 558 to 595 yards — Woods has recorded three eagles, eight birdies and three pars. He’s 14 under in his 14 rounds, giving him a stroke average of 4.00 at the 13th. The first time Woods played the hole in competition was the 1997 Waste Management Phoenix Open. He blasted a drive 346 yards, then a 2-iron from 231 yards that finished 12 feet from the pin. He then converted the eagle attempt. Although Woods has never recorded an albatross on TOUR, his closest call came at the 13th in the 2015 Waste Management. After a 329-yard drive, his second shot with 5-iron from 226 yards hit just in front of the green, then bounced toward the pin, stopping 7 inches from the pin for a tap-in eagle. Tiger’s Easiest Par 5s on TOUR (minimum 10 rounds) The 2,000 Club Since Tiger’s first full season in 1997, 3,900 golfers have played at least one par 5 hole on the PGA TOUR. Seven of those players are a career 2,000 under par or better on the par 5s. Woods is on the list, of course; however, he’s not at the top, as he’s played significantly fewer rounds than the six others above him. Players 2,000 or more under par on par 5s since 1997

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Kyle Stanley … For as much as it’s important to remember that he was trending for months in advance of his second PGA TOUR victory last summer, he’s sustained and slightly improved his position on the world stage since. Up three clicks to 55th in the Official World Golf Ranking since posing for pictures at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm eight months ago, he’s returning to the World Golf Championsips-Dell Technologies Match Play for the first time since his debut in 2012. His commitment to the Arnold Palmer Invitational grants one more opportunity to climb even higher before next Monday’s live draw for round-robin play next week. Tied for 17th with a typically polished tee-to-green game at Bay Hill during his resurgence last year. Now coming off a T25 at Chapultepec, his fifth top 25 of the season. Jamie Lovemark … While he was born and raised in southern California, the Florida Swing has been kinder to him since regaining fully exempt status in 2015-16. Then again, he’s been a resident of Jupiter, Florida, for years, so the absence of success here as well would be a surprise. His slate in the Sunshine State includes a T6 and T23 in the last two editions of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He also struts in on the strength of a solo seventh at PGA National and a T16 at Copperhead. With positive measurements in strokes gained: putting in both events, he’s risen 32 spots to 42nd overall on TOUR. Put it all together and Bay Hill is at or near the top of the most logical sites for the 29-year-old to capture his maiden title. Lucas Glover … In the same lane for anyone who had a tough time digesting that Valspar Championship winner Paul Casey is already 40 years old, Glover will reach that age at the end of next year. Already. He’s gone six seasons since his most recent of three PGA TOUR victories (2011 Wells Fargo Championship), but he’s remained a fixture of late for doing what he does best. The sharpshooter ranks 15th in total driving, 10th in strokes gained: off-the-tee and 44th in greens in regulation. He’s also 44th in both scrambling and bogey avoidance. In eight prior appearances at Bay Hill, he connected for four top 20s, including a personal-best T7 last year. Jason Kokrak … As he enters his prime, the 32-year-old continue to make noise and perhaps inch closer to the elusive breakthrough victory. Perfect in six starts in 2018 with three top 20s, including a T8 at Copperhead on Sunday. He’s also come within striking distance at Bay Hill twice before, eventually finishing fourth in 2014 and T6 in 2015. Sits 18th on TOUR in adjusted scoring, T4 in par-5 scoring, 10th in bogey avoidance and 21st in the all-around. Collin Morikawa … The 21-year-old from Los Angeles is a junior at the University of California-Berkeley. He’s currently fourth in the World Amateur Golf Ranking and second in Golfweek’s Sagarin Ranking. Along with 2017 U.S. Amateur runner-up Doug Ghim and former Pac-12 Conference foe Maverick McNealy (from Stanford), went 4-0 at the 2017 Walker Cup. In his only career start on the Web.com Tour, lost in a playoff at the 2016 Air Capital Classic where Ollie Schniederjans prevailed. Morikawa secured his exemption into the field at Bay Hill this week via his Palmer Cup appearance last year. He couldn’t ask for a better tune-up as he’s fresh off an individual title and school-record 16-under 197 at the Querencia Cabo Collegiate in Mexico on March 6.

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