Day: May 28, 2025

With a dearth of available cap space in the NBA just as the league’s new media rights deals will increase the salary cap in the coming years, there are a number of teams with title ambitions who must enter the trade market to make meaningful changes. This could create potential bidding wars for some of the star players who may come to market this offseason with many deals potentially coming to fruition during the week of the draft.

“You have a log jam and so therefore you have some teams that are a little bit stuck. And so what you have is the perfect storm, the perfect recipe for a lot of movement,” said Brian Windhorst on the Ryen Russillo podcast this week.

“Free agency is not really existent this year. There’s only a couple of teams that have space. There’s not really high level free agents. So it means the way that you alter your team is through trade. And we have a draft that is interesting. There’s a bunch of different players in this draft that teams could fall in love with in the top-five or six. And there’s some teams in the top-five or six that may be willing to do business.

“So you put all that together and it’s just a roiling pot bubbling. I’m expecting there to be action. I think the crazy week for transactions will be at the draft. It’ll always be in July, but the draft week is going to be a crazy week of transactions. I think from the moment the Finals end, maybe even before the Finals end, you’re going to start seeing real action. I just think it’s a perfect storm for it.”

The San Antonio Spurs, Philadelphia 76ers and Houston Rockets own draft picks number two, three and 10 respectively. They also own a number of future draft picks that could be used in significant trades.

Windhorst also added that the way it will play out will be unpredictable with one transaction from one team leading to other unforeseen ones similar to how the Boston Celtics acquired Jrue Holiday by way of the Milwaukee Bucks trading for Damian Lillard.

“I think we’re going to see domino effects,” said Windhorst. “And it’s a little bit unpredictable on how it’s going to go. Just expect a lot of action.”

Front office executives have communicated to multiple reporters the expectation that the 2025 NBA offseason will likely be an eventful one and even “might be the craziest ever.” Both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant could be traded with intriguing pieces certain to be dealt in return, while the Boston Celtics are expected to trade one or more key pieces as well. It will be part of the NBA’s ongoing trend of players becoming more likely to change teams via trade rather than free agency.

“It’s gonna be a crazy summer,” one Western Conference executive projects. “There’s going to be a lot of movement.”

“Trades are going to be the marquee aspect because there’s a number of high-level players [available] and there aren’t really any marquee free agents,” adds another team’s salary cap strategist.

Major roster moves are now happening more and more via trades rather than free agency, in part due to the NBA making it easier for players to sign extensions since the 2017 collective bargaining agreement. Under the 2011 CBA, there were an average of just two veteran extensions per season and that increased to 10 under the 2017 CBA. Since the 2023 CBA, there have been average of 20 players to sign extensions per season. The increase of 900 percent over the timespan doesn’t even include rookie-scale or designated player extensions.

Durant is an example of a player who likely wouldn’t have reached free agency as he did in 2016 had the supermax extension been available to he and the Oklahoma City Thunder. The supermax was instituted, at least in part, due to his exit to the Golden State Warriors.

The free agent class is a down one with James Harden, Kyrie Irving and LeBron James amongst the big names, who also all are expected to re-sign with their incumbent teams. Julius Randle and Myles Turner are also expected to re-sign with their current teams in free agency. Jonathan Kuminga, Josh Giddey and Quentin Grimes are a trio of prominent restricted free agents.

“I think this offseason, too, there’s going to be a lot of movement around the NBA,” Rob Pelinka said at the conclusion of the Los Angeles Lakers’ season. “It just feels that way. There’s so many aggressive leaders of organizations that are expecting, now, success. And so I think there will be a lot of opportunities for us to look at – I really do. I’m excited about the offseason and what’ll come our way.”

The New Orleans Pelicans and Zion Williamson were both “very intentional” in their joint decision to send him to Chicago as their on-stage representative for the lottery. The Pelicans won the lottery six years ago to select Williamson, but their partnership has been rocky at times as he’s dealt with a number of injuries and some general strain between the parties.

Williamson is “very unlikely” to be traded before the 25-26 season and there has been communication between him and his camp with Joe Dumars.

“All parties feel pretty good about where things stand with the Pelicans-Williamson marriage heading into next season,” write William Guillory at The Athletic.

Despite Williamson’s issues with injuries and fitness, he would likely receive considerable trade interest. Williamson will enjoy a fresh start with a new front office regime in Dumars, but he is not expected to be as patient as David Griffin was with him during his tenure with the Pelicans. By the end of Griffin’s time, there were rumblings he was ready to consider trading Williamson.

Williamson finished the 24-25 season with averages of 24.6 points, 7.2 rebounds and 5.3 assists in 28.6 minutes across 30 games. Williamson’s PER of 27.1 was the highest in his career and amongst the best in the NBA.