Day: October 4, 2022

Draws and Fades: Shriners Children’s OpenDraws and Fades: Shriners Children’s Open

Like the effects of full and new moons on tides, in a couple iterations of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf over the years, shootouts have allowed for greater surges. Of course, this also means that there is the potential for a deeper setback with a poor team performance. RELATED: Horses for Courses, Statistically Speaking The phenomenon on the game play this season is more impactful because pars are worth one point. With solid, pre-cut play at the Shriners Children’s Open, because TPC Summerlin has been the easiest par 71 on the PGA TOUR three seasons running (and in ideal weather similar to this week’s), you already would be scoring more points with more par breakers than your opponents who don’t have at least four make the cut, but now you’re scoring more points overall because of the elevated value of pars. My first priority when building my roster is to establish six who are projected to make the cut. But, because golf if a four-letter word, better-laid plans often are ruined. To wit, I’ve had exactly and only three cash in each of the first two tournaments of 2022-23. The old chestnut about insanity doesn’t apply to this pursuit, however. Golf is golf, and fantasy golf is fantasy golf. Stick to your process because this is the wrong week to absorb more zeroes. POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD Si Woo Kim (-160 for a Top 20) … Speaking of golf is golf, he slotted No. 12 (of 12) for the Internationals in my Power Rankings for the Presidents Cup, and then led the team with three points by going 3-1-0 in the losing cause. Go figure. The swing to the extremes essentially defines our visceral reaction over time. We love that he loves to play often, but we could do without so many mid-tournament withdrawals. Of course, we also love how often he plays well, but there’s little causality from one start to the next. The positive spin, at least for him, is that if there was a Power Rankings based on the suspicion of which guys have the shortest memories, he’d be prominently positioned in it. So, here we are at TPC Summerlin where he’s 4-for-5 with a trio of top 15s and a scoring average of 68.22 in 18 rounds. Recent form suggests that he’ll add to the success, but he still angles in as a contrarian in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf because of the persistent doubt. DRAWS Rickie Fowler (+225 for a Top 20) … Set aside the enormity of his shortcomings of the last whatever period of time that you prefer. He’s poised for an inflection point right now. He’s fresh off a T6 at the Fortinet, which occurred amid news that he’s reunited with Butch Harmon, who’s based in Las Vegas, which is where Fowler finished T3 at THE CJ CUP @ SUMMIT a year ago and where this week’s Shriners is contested. Fowler’s last of four career top 25s on TPC Summerlin was a T4 in 2018. It’s also a perfect time to remind you that the 33-year-old is in his contract season. Cam Davis (-145 for a Top 40) … I’m not cool, but I’m cautious. Continue to love him in the long-term, but he’s in a transitional spot right now. An outstanding last four months of the 2021-22 season proved why he shoulders high expectations, but it’s fair to wonder if a letdown is brewing if his Presidents Cup debut was the endpoint of the arc. He’s perfect in three tries at TPC Summerlin, but none went for a top 25 and none were in the context of what’s he’s experiencing right now. Mark Hubbard (-110 for a Top 40) … While he’s still falling short of what’s so often a first PGA TOUR victory, he still needs to be valued for continuing to put himself into position to strike. Last week’s T5 was his third top-five finish of the last three months and the latest in a litany of impressive results scattered across 2022. He’s 3-for-6 at TPC Summerlin and with no better than a T35 in 2015, but his current trajectory projects for a personal best this week. Alex Noren (-145 for a Top 40) … Reviewing his current two-week stretch, this is a little like if the Los Angeles Rams were coming off a tight game in the snow, wind and cold of Green Bay before returning home to the much more comfortable climes of a home game the following weekend. While there’s open air at SoFi Stadium in L.A., it’s essentially indoors, just like the Swede’s test at TPC Summerlin this week. He finished T2 in less-than-desirable conditions at the Dunhill Links last week and he’s making his Shriners debut. The last time he crossed continents in the same short time frame, he chased a T30 at the Genesis Scottish Open with a solo second at the Barracuda Championship. That was inside three months ago. Justin Suh (+125 for a Top 40) … Keep the faith, at least in DFS, but the leash is shortening rapidly. After opening his membership debut with a pair of bad missed cuts, TPC Summerlin will embrace his aggressive tendencies. He can reconnect with what got him here and what slotted him No. 1 on the 2022 Korn Ferry Tour in the all-around ranking. He’s also not a debutant in the tournament, having finished T8 in 2020. Christiaan Bezuidenhout Will Gordon Adam Hadwin Lee Hodges Chris Kirk Matt Kuchar K.H. Lee Denny McCarthy Scott Piercy Seamus Power Kevin Streelman Adam Svensson Nick Taylor Odds sourced on Tuesday, October 4th at 7 p.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm FADES J.T. Poston … Y’all know that I’ve never ridden fences and that I approach my opinion from a conservative position. The thought is to start at the bottom and work my way up. With only one winner every week and so much “losing,” it’s the proper way to prognosticate. I remind you of that because he’s been on some kind of run for a little over three months, but he missed the cut at the Sanderson Farms (where he was No. 3 in my Power Rankings; see RECAP below). If he had extended his form, he’d likely have been a mild draw because his course history at TPC Summerlin is a mixed bag. In six trips, he’s scored under par in every opening round but he’s cashed only twice. One of those was for a T4 in 2017. So, this week serves as a terrific test to observe how what’s been working for him lately can lift him in a tournament that’s given him fits more often than not. Mito Pereira … Life comes at ya fast when you’re a PGA TOUR rookie and one of the best in your class, as he was in 2021-22. The Chilean scaled into the top 50 of the Official World Golf Ranking with his disappointing T3 at the PGA Championship, and he retained that form for another two weeks, but it’s been a whole lotta nada since – just 4-for-6 without a top 40 and a 0-2-1 showing in his Presidents Cup debut. Even with accepted rigors contributing to the slump, many others weren’t upended despite similar scheduling. Cameron Champ … Just 1-for-3 at TPC Summerlin (T28, 2018) and has continued to pop way too infrequently since winning the 3M Open a little over 14 months ago. Wrist issue, bad habits as a result of playing through it, or whatever, the struggle has been real for a guy who has made it look so easy at times. Keith Mitchell … The 30-year-old has been gliding along for about a year now, but he’s 0-for-4 at TPC Summerlin despite six red numbers among eight scores. Ben Martin … While your instinct might be to wonder why he deserved attention at all, much less as a Fade, it was at TPC Summerlin in 2014 where he recorded his lone PGA TOUR title. He answered with a T25 in his title defense, and then missed the cut in the following two editions and hasn’t returned since. His close call at Corales earlier this year was one of the most poignantly self-aware moments of 2022, so it was gratifying how he rose to the challenge in the KFT Finals to secure his PGA TOUR card once again, but all of these are short-lived and overextending examples of what he’s capable of achieving, not who has been week in and week out. Zac Blair … Served notice upon return this summer with three top 25s contributing to a 6-for-6 stretch across two tours. The streak was punctuated by a T12 at the season-opening Fortinet Championship. However, he missed the cut last week and he’s missed five straight at TPC Summerlin since 2015. Just don’t let it deter you from a full-season investment. He’s equipped with a full slate of starts via a Major Medical Extension, so he’ll be able to pick and choose the opens in which he competes. Byeong Hun An Jason Day Harris English Danny Lee Maverick McNealy Chez Reavie Patrick Rodgers Brendon Todd Gary Woodland NOTABLE WDs Trey Mullinax … It’s too soon to know for sure but it would be surprising if he didn’t tee it up in each of the next two weeks. He’s never qualified for the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP and THE CJ CUP in South Carolina until now. So, after finishing 2021-22 with a flourish that included his breakthrough victory at the Barbasol Championship, and then opening this season 0-for-2, a break right now makes sense. It also gives him a chance to acclimate to Japan early if he makes the trip. Davis Riley … Like Mullinax, Riley also qualified for the first two invitationals of the 2022-23 season for the first time. If anything, no matter performances leading up to the forthcoming fortnight, the more surprising fact isn’t that each committed to and withdrew early from the Shriners, but that either committed in the first place. RECAP – SANDERSON FARMS CHAMPIONSHIP POWER RANKINGS Power Ranking Golfer Result 1 Sahith Theegala MC 2 Harris English MC 3 J.T. Poston MC 4 Davis Thompson T67 5 Sam Burns T30 6 Denny McCarthy T39 7 Emiliano Grillo T5 8 Scott Stallings T13 9 Trey Mullinax MC 10 Taylor Montgomery T9 11 Russell Henley MC 12 Davis Riley T19 13 Byeong Hun An MC 14 Taylor Moore T24 15 Henrik Norlander T24 Wild Card Chris Kirk T30 SLEEPERS Golfer (Bet, if applicable) Result Adam Hadwin (+225 for a Top 20) T45 Aaron Rai (+225 for a Top 20) T61 MJ Daffue T61 Zecheng Dou T54 Lee Hodges T30 GOLFBET Bet: Davis Riley, Wyndham Clark and Taylor Moore – All the Make the Cut (+180) Result: Riley (T19), Clark (MC), Moore (T24) BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE MEMBERS OF THE PGA TOUR October 4 … none October 5 … Kelly Kraft (34) October 6 … none October 7 … none October 8 … none October 9 … none October 10 … Charlie Beljan (38) Responsible sports betting starts with a game plan. Set a budget. Keep it social. Play with friends. Learn the game and know the odds. Play with trusted, licensed operators. CLICK HERE to learn more at HaveAGamePlan.org.

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Statistically Speaking: Better go low or you’ll bust in VegasStatistically Speaking: Better go low or you’ll bust in Vegas

Get hot, stay hot! If you are looking for the numbers to send you somewhere ahead of your fantasy and gaming needs this week you have to know going low is the only option at TPC Summerlin in the Shriners Children’s Open. This very familiar Par-71 at 7,255 yards is known for notching up birdies and eagles when we get calm desert skies and velvet-like Bentgrass greens and with limited wind in the forecast get ready for the roars from the Vegas faithful. The recipe here is to keep the ball in the fairway and attack flags on the ample 7,400 square foot targets. Hot putters also will factor as most will paint the large green complexes. Scoring is not optional this week: • Of the previous 13 winners, 10 have posted 20-under or better. • Tournament scoring record is 24-under posted three times, including last year. • Last three seasons have produced 134 bogey free rounds. • 43 players 10-under or better last year. • 56 players 10-under or better 2020. • 60 players 10-under or better 2019. Let’s look back at what past champions have used to excel at TPC Summerlin Key Statistics Only players listed are competing this week; click stat headline for additional players; Stats from 2021-22 completed season. Rounds in the 60s As we saw above, rounds in the 70s need not apply. You got to push your chips all in here. You must score to win! TPC Summerlin has ranked in the top nine easiest courses the last three seasons. Those of you who are curious for KFT graduates stats please click here and navigate. Putting: Birdie or Better Percentage Hitting GIR and converting chances has been the hallmark of previous champions. Of the last seven, six have ranked T12 or better. Score, score and score! SG: Tee to Green Of the last six winners four have ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in this category. The outlier was Kevin Na who checked in at No. 55. All he did is roll in 558 feet of putts, a ShotLink era record. Hard to replicate that! Par-Breakers Circle birdies. Double circle eagles. Last year there were 74 eagles, the most on one course on TOUR since 2019. Chances to get low everywhere need to be taken! The cut here the last three seasons has been 5-under, 7-under and 5-under! The more, the merrier and a better chance for the weekend! The Bottom Line With the above key stats in mind, it’s not hard to see why Patrick Cantlay tops the betting markets (+700) and costs the most in DFS. He’s a former champion and has finished no lower than T8 in four starts. Of 16 rounds, seven are 65 or better. Defending champion Sungjae Im (+1200) also features heavily in key stats as does Maverick McNealy. Don’t sleep on Keith Mitchell. He’s on all four lists above and sits at +4600 to win the tournament. As always don’t forget to also look at Horses for Courses, and Rob Bolton’s Sleepers for extra value and the Power Rankings for the top of the board considerations. Responsible sports betting starts with a game plan. Set a budget. Keep it social. Play with friends. Learn the game and know the odds. Play with trusted, licensed operators. CLICK HERE to learn more at HaveAGamePlan.org

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Sungjae Im’s stats leapt off the page last seasonSungjae Im’s stats leapt off the page last season

Sungjae Im established himself among the PGA TOUR’s best young players through his first three full seasons. After winning Korn Ferry Tour Player of the Year in 2018, he was named PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year in ’19 and went 3-1-1 for the International Presidents Cup Team that lost at the wire at Royal Melbourne. He beat a strong field to win the 2020 Honda Classic, his first TOUR title, and tied for second at the Masters Tournament that November. But in winning the Shriners Children’s Open in Las Vegas last fall, the Korean star launched into a new phase of his burgeoning professional success. He bookended his week with rounds of 63 and 62 and won by four shots, also leading the field in greens in regulation (86.1%), scrambling (90.0%) and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (2.62 per round). Im finished 13th or better in every Strokes Gained category that week, a harbinger of the balanced excellence he would go on to achieve for the rest of 2022. Still just 24 years old, Im has evolved from promising potential star to one of the most complete players in the game. Gaining strokes everywhere Im never ranked worse than 31st in Strokes Gained: Total in any of his first three full seasons on TOUR, enjoying above-average numbers with both his ball-striking and performance on the greens. He is one of just 10 players to average 0.40 Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (combining shots off the tee and approaching the green) and 0.40 Strokes Gained: Short Game (around the green and putts) per round since the beginning of his rookie campaign in 2018-19. In 2022, though, he got even better. From 2021 to 2022, Im improved his ranking in all four of the primary Strokes Gained disciplines measured by ShotLink: Off-the-Tee, Approach the Green, Around the Green and Putting. Im was one of 15 qualified players to improve his ranking in all four of the key Strokes Gained disciplines in 2021-22. Only two other players who ranked in the top 10 for the season in Strokes Gained: Total also saw improvements in every specific category: Rory McIlroy and Matt Fitzpatrick. And it was the third consecutive season that Im improved in both Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Strokes Gained: Approach. Most significantly, he leapt from 142nd to 12th in shots around the green. Only Billy Horschel (up 133 spots) had a bigger improvement than Im from one season to the next in that statistic. Bogey avoidance leader That improved performance around the greens resulted in fewer dropped shots. Im’s jump in scrambling, from 41st to 7th, coincided with him leading the PGA TOUR last season in bogey avoidance at just 12.3 percent. That was an improvement of 37 spots from just two seasons prior, when he ranked 38th in that statistic. Im has enjoyed a surge in his putting statistics in recent months, as well. Through the end of May, Im was ranked 76th for the 2021-22 season in Strokes Gained: Putting, at 0.14 per round. Since the beginning of June, however, he’s in the top 10 in that category, gaining 0.68 strokes per round on the greens on average (8th best in that span). Prolific player Im dialed back his schedule in 2022, playing 26 tournaments compared to 35 the previous season. But even after scaling back, he is the PGA TOUR’s resident ironman over the last four years. Since the 2018-19 season, Im has played 438 official rounds – 54 more than any other player. He has walked approximately 2,200 miles in tournament rounds alone since joining the TOUR full-time in the fall of 2018. If he were to drive from Atlanta – where he now lives full-time – to Las Vegas, home of this week’s Shriners Children’s Open, it would be just 1,970 miles. He’s carded 1,776 birdies or better in that span, 330 more than anyone else. His 221 rounds in the 60s over the previous four PGA TOUR seasons are 41 more than the next-closest player (Tony Finau, 180). Greatest weapon Many so-called “bombers” qualify as elite drivers, but with the right blend of precision and above-average power a player can gain strokes on the field off the tee, as well. Im is a perfect example of such a player: he ranked 11th last season in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee despite having just slightly above TOUR average length (300.7 yards). Im is more accurate than many, having hit at least 64% of his fairways in each of his four seasons on TOUR. And when he did miss last season, it wasn’t by much: he ranked 22nd in average distance from the edge of the fairway. This precision, plus averaging just over 300 yards on measured drives, led to Im gaining 39% of his strokes last season off the tee – his highest percentage in any of the primary categories.

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