Day: June 14, 2022

Draws and Fades: U.S. OpenDraws and Fades: U.S. Open

In my season-opener of this space, I previewed and analyzed the newest iteration of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. It included a reference to how tough courses could yield negative fantasy scoring in every round, and I singled out the U.S. Open at The Country Club as an event during which to be cautious and calculating. RELATED: Horses for Courses, Sleeper picks If you’ve played enough, at least one golfer has valued below zero in a round. For example, in Draws and Fades for the PGA Championship, I shared that Matt Kuchar totaled one point as one of my Starters for all four rounds en route to a T49 at the Wells Fargo Championship. He concluded play in 7-over 287. Thanks for almost nothin’! Here we are now with the U.S. Open batting third in Segment 4, so it’s time for those lessons to matter. If we can (easily) agree that, even with bonus points for daily low scores, round-by-round scoring will be negligible in the long-term. Sure, you’ll observe high performers who guess right with their lottery tickets, but you cannot take your eyes off the FedExCup Playoffs and the quadrupled bonus points. The winner of the U.S. Open will receive 600 FedExCup points. That translates into 60 bonus points in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. Consider that one fourth-place finish in any of the Playoffs events will yield 54 bonus points. Wins in the last three tournaments will pay 200 points. So, the advice is to continue to remain as patient as possible without allowing your target to separate more than you think you can handle. If you’re pacing, the strategy is the same. Your insurance is the Playoffs, and like your opponents, you’re going to score more points pretty much everywhere else in Segment 4 than you are this week, so focus on golfers to make the cut and with the potential to make noise on the weekend. Of course, we have entered a place in time when familiar faces are projected to make starts in only the remaining two majors of the season. No matter your current position in your league, lean into a couple of these guys to offset the starts you’ll want and need for those who are eligible for the Playoffs. POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD Brooks Koepka (+160 for a Top 20) … When he doesn’t appear in the Power Rankings for a major, that gives you all you need to know about where I’ve landed for the four-time major champion. In the U.S. Open alone, he has two wins, a runner-up, two T4s and another two top 20s all among his last seven appearances. He’s the perfect spell for chasers in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf because front-runners, at least the conservative among them, will worry about the inconsistent form upon arrival. But honestly, he’s reached a level in the majors specifically not unlike where Tiger Woods soared for years; that is, because of the body of work, you have a preset and how that plays into your strategy. This is to say that, unless he acknowledges a recurring injury – he hasn’t – nothing has changed since the last time we faced this decision. DRAWS Sungjae Im (+400 for a Top 10) … His unfortunate DNP at the PGA Championship due to travel restrictions related to COVID-19 didn’t deter him. If anything, the additional rest, something he rarely seeks or needs an abundance of, likely was the unintentional benefit. He’s gone T15-T10 since and easily warrants a prop here that should’ve slotted him as an automatic in the Power Rankings. Tommy Fleetwood (+190 for a Top 20) … If only more international non-members would start a PGA TOUR season with conditional status! In my full-membership fantasy ranking before the season, I comped him to Shane Lowry, who scuffled with fully exempt status in 2016-17 and 2017-18 before landing victory at The Open Championship while on conditional status. It may not seem like a big deal for guys with a lofty Official World Golf Ranking (Fleetwood currently is 40th) but there have been examples over time – Lowry was the most recent – for which it seems to at least simplifies scheduling. Maybe it’s a coincidence, but for now, the Brit deserves strong consideration in every format at the U.S. Open. Keegan Bradley (+250 for a Top 20) … Invest a unit or three, if for no other reason than the relative home game. But hey, he’s been electric throughout the season, and his putting is improved, so all arrows are pointed upward, anyway. Mito Pereira (+190 for a Top 20) … The mettle on this guy! So upset by the turn of events on the 72nd hole of the PGA Championship that he answered with a T7 at Colonial and a T13 at Muirfield Village. At seventh on TOUR in greens hit and 19th in scrambling, he’s also seventh in bogey avoidance. And since the recent surge has punctuated what already was impressive form, he figures to contribute to your success at the U.S. Open. Cameron Young (+150 for a Top 20) … The clubhouse leader for the Rookie of the Year award has five podium finishes on the season, and on the most challenging of tracks, including three in a row terminating at the PGA Championship. What shouldn’t be overlooked is how deft he’s been in his scheduling. He’s been patient and smart about not overdoing it, and it’s kept him fresh enough to slot 16th in the FedExCup standings. Among all non-winners this season, only Will Zalatoris (13th) sits higher. Of course, both are still chasing their first PGA TOUR title, too. Davis Riley (+220 for a Top 20) … The recipient of the Arnold Palmer Award likely will be the last rookie standing in the Playoffs, but the totality of his season will serve as a tiebreaker, if necessary, among eligible voters. After a relatively quiet first half, the 25-year-old has come on strong enough to warrant the kind of attention deserving of a nod. He arrived at The County Club having strung together four top 10s and a pair of T13s, one of which at the PGA Championship. If he’d have prevailed in the playoff at the Valspar Championship, he’d likely be the front-runner to be the ROY. Webb Simpson (+100 for a Top 40) … He hasn’t lit any stages on fire lately, but even though he’s yet to put four rounds together post-neck injury, he’s still making cuts. Strong starts have made it possible, so consider seriously as a R1 leader in addition to this finish. He’s cashed in 19 of the last 20 majors. Patrick Reed (+275 for a Top 20) … Continues to tease but all that matters is that he’s securing tee times on weekends. Since an uncharacteristic 0-for-3 in late winter, he’s 6-for-7 in stroke-play competition, albeit with just one top 25. Furthermore, he regularly plays up in the majors, so even when a course doesn’t seem to fit, he figures out a way to convert a top 20. Louis Oosthuizen (+220 for a Top 40) … Essentially the same analysis as Reed above, but with a lower expectation. Oosthuizen has played sparingly but he’s making cuts and he’s been a force in the majors for years. Abraham Ancer Talor Gooch Brian Harman Viktor Hovland Sebastián Muñoz Kevin Na Alex Noren Justin Rose Adam Scott Harold Varner III Aaron Wise Odds sourced on Tuesday, June 14th at 8 p.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm FADES Phil Mickelson … His first official competition in over four months is his latest attempt to capture the career grand slam, so respect the rust. He’s also gone six straight U.S. Opens without a top-45 finish. Dustin Johnson … Based on reaction that reaches me, he’s the top snub from the Power Rankings, but that really shouldn’t surprise anyone. Sure, he’s a former champ (2016) with a series of fantastic finishes across numerous tests, but we always need to consider what a guy has done for us lately. When the lights are brighter, expectations are higher. It’s ridiculous to toss him into the pile of contrarians, but there’s nothing to debate. Bryson DeChambeau … In his first start post-wrist surgery, he shot 76-77 and missed the cut at Muirfield Village. It’s the latest in a lost year for the 28-year-old and our expectations must be governed by the likelihood that no one will rekindle form at The Country Club. Tyrrell Hatton … This relative assessment is one with which gamers of the last three years can agree. No matter how strong he presents for every difficult course, he’s come up short much more often than he’s delivered. Until he regains consistency, leave him to full-season formats and accept the positive results as a bonus. Marc Leishman … Glowing full-season statistics need to step aside for recency bias. The Aussie continues to misfire similarly to how he responded from the three-month shutdown of 2020. And aside from the Masters, he’s had no impact in the majors in five years. Gary Woodland … Either he’s back in a rut or it’s just who he always will be now. Not that there’s anything wrong with that because the 38-year-old still contributes to long-term investors, so our reaction is predictable. Also of note, since he prevailed at Pebble Beach in 2019 U.S. Open, he’s just 5-for-10 and without a top 30 in the majors. Francesco Molinari … Despite a couple of mild needle-moving performances, he’s falling short on fulfilling expectations for full-season owners, much less those of us calling on him for spot starts. In his prime, he’d have populated the Power Rankings for this U.S. Open at The Country Club, but the 39-year-old continues to separate from his heyday. Adam Hadwin Mackenzie Hughes K.H. Lee Luke List Cameron Tringale Erik van Rooyen RETURNING TO COMPETITION Satoshi Kodaira … Walked off St. George’s during the second round with a sore back. It extended his skid to 0-for-4, which included a start on the Korn Ferry Tour. Currently 163rd in the FedExCup with only five paydays in 10 starts, playing time limited to conditional status and commitments to his native Japan Golf Tour in the fall. NOTABLES WDs Tiger Woods … Sitting this one out in favor of a stronger body when he hopes to return to organized competition in early July. He made the cut in the first two majors, but he withdrew from the PGA Championship after a third-round 79 at Southern Hills. Paul Casey … Remains sidelined indefinitely due to extended discomfort in his back. Martin Kaymer … The streak of consecutive U.S. Open appearances for the 2014 champ ends at 14 due to an injured wrist. RECAP – RBC CANADIAN OPEN POWER RANKINGS Power Ranking Golfer Result 1 Scottie Scheffler T18 2 Justin Thomas 3rd 3 Sam Burns T4 4 Shane Lowry T10 5 Rory McIlroy Win 6 Cameron Smith T48 7 Corey Conners 6th 8 Matt Fitzpatrick T10 9 Tony Finau 2nd 10 Tyrrell Hatton MC 11 Adam Hadwin T35 12 Brendon Todd T13 13 Harold Varner III T13 14 Patrick Reed DNP 15 Sebastián Muñoz T25 Wild Card Chris Kirk T7 SLEEPERS Golfer (Bet) Result Aaron Cockerill (+800 for a Top 20) T48 Tyler Duncan (+400 for a Top 20) MC Christopher Gotterup (+500 for a Top 20) MC John Huh (+400 for a Top 20) T25 J.T. Poston (+300 for a Top 20) MC BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE MEMBERS OF THE PGA TOUR June 14 … Lee Hodges (27) June 15 … Lanto Griffin (34); Cameron Champ (27) June 16 … none June 17 … David Hearn (43) June 18 … none June 19 … none June 20 … Charles Howell III (43)

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History says a playoff beckons at BrooklineHistory says a playoff beckons at Brookline

BROOKLINE, Mass. – Get ready for bonus golf this week at the U.S. Open. History says a playoff at The Country Club will be needed to decide the champion. RELATED: Power Rankings | Nine Things to Know: The Country Club | Five Cinderellas to watch Playoffs were necessary to crown a winner in the three previous U.S. Opens at the celebrated venue just outside Boston, and taking things a step further, playoffs have been needed to decide the last six US Opens played in the state of Massachusetts. So, despite the fact it’s been a record 14 years since Tiger Woods outlasted Rocco Mediate in extra holes at Torrey Pines in the 2008 U.S. Open, history suggests 72 holes won’t be enough to get a winner this week. Francis Ouimet famously won the 1913 U.S. Open at Brookline with an 18-hole playoff win over Harry Vardon and Ted Ray and it was another three-man battle to get a winner in 1963 when Julius Boros took down Arnold Palmer and Jacky Cupit. And Curtis Strange beat Nick Faldo over 18 holes in a playoff in the most recent U.S. Open at The Country Club, in 1988. The Boston area also saw Fred McLeod win over Willie Smith in 1908 at Myopia Hunt Club and Walter Hagen defeated Mike Brady in 1919 at Brae Burn Country Club over 18 extra holes. Willie Macfarlane took down Bobby Jones in 1925 in a 36-hole playoff after they tied again in the first 18-holes at Worcester Country Club, as well. Woods’ win over Mediate took 19 extra holes but since then the United States Golf Association’s premier event has moved to a two-hole aggregate playoff format. They just haven’t had to use it yet. Despite the weight of history BetMGM Sportsbook are offering odds of +350 for Brookline to keep its 100% playoff record intact. And if you think the record gap for U.S. Opens without the extra holes will stretch to 14 years, they’re offering -500. Any playoff in 2022 would be played on the 17th and 18th holes, and if still tied after two holes the players would continue that loop in a sudden death mode. Here’s a closer look at the three previous playoffs at The Country Club. 1913: A WIN FOR THE LOCAL LAD This U.S. Open was so good Hollywood made a movie about it called “The Greatest Game Ever Played” where a young Shia LeBeouf plays the Ouimet role beautifully. Ouimet, a 20-year-old amateur and former caddie at Brookline who lived across the road from this week’s 17th hole, was not expected to factor as anything but a local prospect for fans to cheer for. But with his 10-year-old caddie Eddie Lowery by his side, the pair forced their way to the top of the leaderboard against the British superstar duo of Harry Vardon and Ted Ray. A 71st hole birdie proved extremely pivotal. Faced with the task of keeping the trophy in American hands (Scottish or British golfers won the first 16 U.S. Opens before John McDermott became the first American to win in 1911 and 1912) Ouimet was brilliant in the 18-hole playoff on his way to a 72 that bested Vardon’s 77 and Ray’s 78. The trio were all tied through the opening nine holes with Vardon establishing a one-shot lead early on but giving it back before the turn. As the pressure ratcheted up on the back nine, Ouimet was steadfast with seven straight pars leaving him one ahead of Vardon with two to play. His lead was three when he birdied the hole and Vardon bogeyed before closing it out on 18. “I frankly admit that my victory was probably more surprising to me than to any person at The Country Club,” Ouimet said. 1963: BOROS BEATS FATHER TIME The U.S. Open returned to The Country Club to celebrate the 50th anniversary of Ouimet’s famous win and it was New England’s Julius Boros who gave the locals something to cheer about this time around. At 43, Boros become the second-oldest U.S. Open winner ever at the time when his 1-under 70 beat Jacky Cupit’s 73 and Arnold Palmer’s laboring 76 in an 18-hole playoff after the trio all finished at 9 over in regulation. Boros needed two birdies in his final three holes during the final round to tie Palmer at the top while Cupit was left to lament a 71st hole double-bogey and a missed 12-foot putt on the 72nd hole that would have claimed the win. In the playoff, Cupit led by one after just two holes before Boros took control. Three front nine birdies helped him to a three-shot lead over Palmer and a four-shot cushion over Cupit at the turn. He was five clear after 12 holes and despite doubling the 13th, he cruised to his second U.S. Open title. 1988: STRANGE REIGNS SUPREME Curtis Strange persevered to claim the first of his back-to-back U.S. Open titles after a wild final round finish left him tied with Nick Faldo at The Country Club. The 54-hole leader infamously three-putted the 71st green to lose his one-shot advantage over Faldo during the final round and then found a greenside bunker on his approach to the 18th, much to the chagrin of the partisan American crowd. Seemingly in the midst of throwing the championship away Strange produced a clutch up and down for par to ensure England’s Faldo would have to return for an 18-hole Monday playoff. The American would never trail in the playoff, setting up a one-shot lead at the turn, before prevailing with an even-par 71 against Faldo’s 4-over 75. While Strange was steadfast down the stretch, Faldo bogeyed three of his last four to surrender his hopes. “This is for my dad. … I’ve been waiting a long time to do this. … This is the greatest feeling I’ve ever had,” Strange, who lost his golf professional father at just 14, emotionally said. “Sometimes dreams don’t come true. Ninety-nine percent of the time they don’t. My dream has come true.”

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Five U.S. Open Cinderellas to keep an eye onFive U.S. Open Cinderellas to keep an eye on

BROOKLINE, Mass. – There were 9,265 entries accepted for this year’s U.S. Open at The Country Club. Some players earned spots in the field through various exemption categories based on FedExCup finish, the Official World Golf Ranking, victories at prestigious events, etc. Others earned their spot through the unique meritocracy of qualifying. The enduring beauty of the U.S. Open is that any player with a 1.4 handicap or better can make the field for this major championship. In 2005, Jason Gore earned a spot in Sunday’s final group at Pinehurst No. 2 as a near-anonymous journeyman pro. Ten years ago, Beau Hossler held the solo lead Friday at Olympic Club as a rising high school senior. Who could author a similar story this week? Here’s five potential Cinderellas at The Country Club. ERIK BARNES A 36-hole U.S. Open qualifier didn’t faze the eighth-year Korn Ferry Tour pro. Barnes, 34, knows what it means to work a double shift. During pro golf’s hiatus in the spring of 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic, Barnes took a job at a Publix supermarket as a Grocery Replenishment Specialist (stocking shelves) to support his family – wife Ashleigh and two young sons, Jaxton and Tucker. Five days a week, the Indiana native woke up at 3 a.m. He worked from 4 a.m. – 1 p.m. at the grocery store, then headed to the golf course to practice. “Could I have filed for unemployment and got what I’m making at Publix? Yeah, probably,” Barnes said at the time. “But I needed to take action and do it right now.” Playing on conditional status at the time, Barnes made a quick impact once the hiatus was lifted, recording back-to-back top-15 finishes to boost his spot in the Priority Ranking and play a full season. He has played the best golf of his career in 2022, making 14 of 15 cuts to begin the Korn Ferry Tour campaign and secure his first TOUR card for next season. This week, he gets a sneak preview of life on golf’s biggest stage. FRAN QUINN Fran Quinn has been grinding as a pro golfer for three decades. He’s won four times on the Korn Ferry Tour but also traversed the globe, including stops in Africa and Asia, in search of places to play. Just 71 of his starts as a pro have been on the PGA TOUR. His 72nd may be the most memorable of them all, however. The 57-year-old’s endurance and perseverance will pay off this week, with a moment that he will never forget in front of friends and family. The Massachusetts native will be the first man to tee off of No. 10 Thursday (fellow Massachusetts native Michael Thorbjornsen, an amateur who made the cut in the 2019 U.S. Open, will do the honors off of No. 1). Quinn, 57, hadn’t attempted U.S. Open Final Qualifying since 2015 but the opportunity to compete this week in his home state was too good to pass up. Making the field may have been a longshot but he had to try. With the encouragement of his son Owen, and The Country Club’s location just 40 minutes from his hometown of Holden, Massachusetts, he sent in his application. The four-time Korn Ferry Tour winner advanced through both Local and Final Qualifying, punctuated with a birdie on the second extra hole of an 8-for-3 playoff at the Purchase, New York, site to secure his first U.S. Open berth since 2014. In his most recent U.S. Open appearance, at Pinehurst No. 2, Quinn generated buzz with an opening-round 68 that placed him T2 at day’s end. With Owen on the bag, he made the cut and enjoyed a memorable Father’s Day walk. It would have marked a sufficient farewell to the major championship arena. Now he has upped the ante, with a moment he only could have dreamed of. KEITH GREENE Golf Channel was on hand for the Jupiter, Florida, site of Final Qualifying, and when the broadcast cut to an interview with Keith Greene, many fans didn’t think much of it. But as Greene became teary-eyed upon explaining what this opportunity meant to him, he instantly gained legions of new fans. Kevin Kisner even tweeted at Greene with interest in setting up a practice round. Greene, 29, played collegiately at Eastern Florida State College and has competed on various mini-tours with limited success. He has made 12 career starts across PGA TOUR Canada and PGA TOUR Latinoamerica, with just one made cut to show. The seventh-year pro has yet to make a PGA TOUR or Korn Ferry Tour start. On his TOUR profile, Greene notes a favorite quote is “hard work beats talent when talent fails to work hard.” Perhaps channeling that spirit, the Florida native has earned the right to tee it up against the world’s best this week. “I’ve just believed so much in myself … it’s just been hard, man,” Greene said upon qualifying, his voice breaking. “The family’s there, though. I’m just trying to do what I can out here, and I know I’ve got it. Competition’s so good, but I know I can do it.” Professional golf is incredibly deep. This week, Greene will aim to prove that. ISAIAH SALINDA Salinda’s parents worked long hours for decades to give their son every chance to chase his dreams. His dad Antonio has spent three-plus decades in the postal service in San Francisco, and his mom Debbie is a longtime nurse. Salinda played collegiately at Stanford, helping the Cardinal to the 2020 NCAA title, and he advanced through PGA TOUR Canada Q-School in March 2020 — just before the COVID-19 pandemic hiatus. Without a place to play for a while, his timeline was delayed. He finished T21 at PGA TOUR Canada’s Royal Beach Victoria Open the day before competing at 36-hole Final Qualifying in Bend, Oregon, where he carded 8 under to earn one of three available spots. Salinda competed in the 2019 Walker Cup and was a second-team All-American as a senior. Now he’ll tee it up in his first major championship. CHRIS GOTTERUP After a disappointing exit in the NCAA Championship quarterfinals, Gotterup wouldn’t have been blamed for taking a few days to relax before commencing his professional career. But the New Jersey native – who played a fifth year for Oklahoma after four years at Rutgers – recalibrated mentally and traversed from the NCAA Championships in Phoenix to attempt U.S. Open Final Qualifying in Purchase, New York. The recent Haskins Award winner (recognizing the United States’ top collegiate golfer) didn’t miss a beat, carding 3 under at a pair of demanding courses to earn his first major championship start. Gotterup, 22, finished No. 7 on the 2022 PGA TOUR University Ranking presented by Velocity Global. He’s expected to get a handful of PGA TOUR starts this summer, as well (he missed the cut last week in the RBC Canadian Open). He’s already finished in the top 10 in a PGA TOUR event, the Puerto Rico Open, this year. He has seen what success looks like at various levels. Now he’ll put it to the test at the highest level.

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