Day: August 20, 2021

Win probabilities: THE NORTHERN TRUSTWin probabilities: THE NORTHERN TRUST

2021 THE NORTHERN TRUST, Round 2 Top 10 win probabilities: 1. Jon Rahm (1, -12, 44.4%) 2. Xander Schauffele (T3, -10, 10.5%) 3. Tony Finau (2, -11, 10.4%) 4. Justin Thomas (T3, -10, 9.0%) 5. Jordan Spieth (T10, -8, 4.2%) 6. Brooks Koepka (T10, -8, 3.0%) 7. Viktor Hovland (T12, -7, 2.0%) 8. Keith Mitchell (T3, -10, 1.9%) 9. Alex Noren (T6, -9, 1.8%) 10. Harold Varner III (T6, -9, 1.7%) Top Strokes-Gained Performers from Round 2: Putting: Tom Hoge +3.5 Around the Green: Kevin Na +3.8 Approach the Green: Webb Simpson +3.9 Off-the-tee: Scottie Scheffler +2.3 Total: Jordan Spieth +7.0 NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the 3M Open, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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Jordan Spieth shoots memorable 62 with a little slice of luckJordan Spieth shoots memorable 62 with a little slice of luck

JERSEY CITY, N.J. – Number-crunchers were still waiting for the final finishers to complete Friday’s second round of THE NORTHERN TRUST, but one category seemed finalized. Jordan Spieth had led the field in Strokes Gained: Total, with 7.016. RELATED: Full leaderboard | FedExCup update: Keith Mitchell makes move after brilliant birdie run Spieth, minutes after shooting a 9-under 62, seemed to shrug that off, probably because he had another stat in his head. He told a reporter that he figures he led the field in “Strokes Gained: Plus 8, in luck.” Pretty good quip and goodness know but someone might just go and take on quantifying such a category, but Spieth’s assessment of his round was spot on. Even for his uncanny standard of scrambling, Round 2 of this FedExCup Playoff at Liberty National Golf Club was one for the highlight reel. We circle the par-4 fifth and par-5 sixth. At the former, Spieth split the fairway perfectly, then holed out with a wedge shot from 81 yards. One hole later, he was miles right with his drive, then hit a 246-yard shot that didn’t carry onto the green and seemed to be headed toward some water. “I got really lucky it held up in the hazard,” said Spieth, whose good fortune wasn’t over. His pitch from just inside of 30 yards was hot and likely going to be long, only it hit the flagstick square and dropped. Nothing like a little eagle, eagle to change the mood of a round. And to think, said Spieth, “I was worried about the cut” when he fell to 1-over for the tournament with a bogey at the first. Two eagles, six birdies, and a handful of Spieth-like par saves later, and he put himself in contention – at 8-under 134 he is tied for 10th, four behind Jon Rahm (67). So often, it is the putter that carries this young man, but he pointed out that he didn’t have “many putts outside of 5 feet.” And just why was that? “Because I didn’t play normal golf today. It was just kind of one of those days where you know you won’t get away with it throughout the weekend. “But I chipped the ball unbelievably well (setting up a handful of kick-ins for birdie or par), I wedged it beautifully, and I was patient.” Oh, and lucky. He confirms that was a big part of his day. Golfers being golfers, they know there is good luck and back luck, and the question was asked: Will it even out over the course of a career? Spieth laughed. “It’s weird, but you always focus on when you get a bad break versus the good one. But I would imagine, yeah, it evens out.” We suspect he’s correct. But we also know if anyone can overcome bad luck with a five-star scrambling game, it’s Spieth. Which is why, when the luck is on the good side, it computes to 62.

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