Day: August 17, 2021

Fantasy Insider: THE NORTHERN TRUSTFantasy Insider: THE NORTHERN TRUST

PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf league championships will be determined at the TOUR Championship in two weeks, but they could be decided at THE NORTHERN TRUST this weekend. With no cuts at the BMW Championship and Playoffs finale, and with front-runners having the power to end-load rosters for a title-clinching stymie, what happens at Liberty National is critical. THE NORTHERN TRUST features the last 36-hole cut of the 2020-21 season. Of the 124 committed, only 65 are promised to have tee times in the third and final rounds. That means that as many as 59 will not. If you’re in pursuit, this is your last chance to be aggressive with an elevated likelihood to capitalize. Unless you connect for victory and the bonus points that go with it, and assuming that that makes a dent in your deficit, you’re going to struggle picking up points with all gamers guaranteed four rounds of contributions in the final two events. Ah, yes, the bonus points. They are quadrupled in reality, which means 200 fantasy points to owners of winners rostered in final rounds. As noted under “End of Tournament Bonus” in Rules, the structure of bonus points for the TOUR Championship will align with the first two events. When formulating your strategy, remember that opening position at East Lake is determined by seed upon arrival. Starting Strokes will give the best seeds placement at the top of the leaderboard before the first tee ball is aloft. Current league leaders likely will be saving starts for the highest seeds and those with a good track record at East Lake, but the latter projects to pack a stronger punch for the guys deeper in the standings. When the current structure was introduce in 2019, six golfers from outside the top 10 at the beginning of the TOUR Championship were among 11 who recorded a top 10 in the tournament. Rory McIlroy prevailed as the 5-seed. The runner-up was Xander Schauffele, who was seeded eighth. The same split occurred last year when an apples-to-apples comparison can be made because the conclusion of the reduction to tripled FedExCup points determined the opening seeds at East Lake. Although top-seeded Dustin Johnson won and the 3-seed, Justin Thomas, tied for second, six of the final top 10 opened outside the top 10. This may be obvious but it’s too important to omit: What you don’t want is to be left with a sixpack of guys outside, say, the top 15. Continue to manage accordingly by saving starts for guys you know you’re going to want at the TOUR Championship. Remember that you can use the tool on the platform to plug those guys in now if you choose. As for the BMW Championship, it’s the wild card of the trio because Caves Valley will be a new test despite previous experience for a handful as amateurs well over a decade ago. Always remember that when greens are unfamiliar, ball-strikers tend to contend. As noted in my Power Rankings for the FedExCup Playoffs, the track is a par 72 that can tip at 7,542 yards. RELATED: Power Rankings | Expert Picks PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf My roster for THE NORTHERN TRUST (in alphabetical order): Patrick Cantlay Paul Casey Dustin Johnson Collin Morikawa Jon Rahm Jordan Spieth You’ll find my starters in Expert Picks. Others to consider for each category (in alphabetical order): Scoring: Bryson DeChambeau; Harris English; Brooks Koepka; Rory McIlroy; Patrick Reed; Xander Schauffele; Scottie Scheffler; Adam Scott; Justin Thomas Driving: Corey Conners; Harris English; Matt Fitzpatrick; Viktor Hovland; Jason Kokrak; Joaquin Niemann; Xander Schauffele; Scottie Scheffler POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD Tony Finau (+5000) … He hasn’t performed well in every Playoffs event since he debuted in 2015, but he’s performed well a lot. His record includes nine top 10s in 20 starts. To say that he’s scuffling upon arrival is fair, but it’s always relative to our elevated expectations given his talent and knack to adapt to the surroundings. So, the sensible thing to do is to give the 23-seed this week to prove that he deserves our attention at Caves Valley because he’ll present as a more intriguing choice for chasers in that ballpark. Front-runners won’t want to trust him with what’s at stake. DRAWS Cameron Smith (+3500) … Not the strongest fit for Liberty National, so he presents as a contrarian for chasers because he rises to the occasion in big events regularly. He’s also proven to be streaky. Keep that in mind when deliberating if he’s worth the reach after a T5 in his last start in Memphis. Matt Fitzpatrick (+6600) … Doubt that I convey that it feels that I go to his well too often but that’s, well, how it feels. When you’re a top-20 machine that makes most cuts, all fantasy formats are going to reward that kind of output. The 26-year-old Englishman still is getting his feet wet in the Playoffs – this is just his second spin – but his combination of splitting fairways and sinking putts works no matter what or where. Jhonattan Vegas (+10000) … He overcame a seriously inconsistent track record at Sedgefield with seriously strong form to finish T15 last week. Including a T16 at the Olympics, he’s recorded six top 20s in his last eight starts worldwide. His tee-to-green strength should do damage at each of the first two stops of the Playoffs. Tyrrell Hatton (+5000) … Despite testing positive for COVID-19 in late April, no complaints about 2021. He opened it with a victory in Abu Dhabi, got married in May and he’s on the inside track to represent Europe in the Ryder Cup. Yet, at 63rd in the FedExCup, it feels unfinished. He’s performed well enough in recent non-majors to deserve our confidence, but limit to DFS. Corey Conners Russell Henley Billy Horschel Jason Kokrak Joaquin Niemann Odds sourced on Wednesday, August 18 at 5 a.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm. FADES Hideki Matsuyama (+3300) … We forget how much of a workhorse he’s been for us over the years, and then we’re reminded of his vulnerability at the Olympics in his native Japan. He opens his eighth FedExCup Playoffs as the 14-seed, so he’s a virtual lock to advance to the TOUR Championship for, you guessed it, the eighth time. That’s crazy reliability and value, but he’s yet to record a top 10 in THE NORTHERN TRUST regardless of site. In his only previous trip to Liberty National in 2019, he finished T30. Of course that’s not terrible, but it’s a tip to holster him until Caves Valley when his long and strong, tee-to-green game can shine. Sam Burns (+6600) … He’s headed for stardom, not to mention his first TOUR Championship as the opening 10-seed, but he makes sense only in DFS situations, not in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf where familiarity in the Playoffs is of value. Si Woo Kim (+8000) … The course horse at Sedgefield was among the playoff victims on Sunday. It also was his first top-35 finish in official competition in two months. He’s gone nine consecutive starts in the Playoffs without a top 25. Sergio Garcia (+8000) … He should dissect Liberty National but he’s failed to break par in his last four rounds on the course. Sure, that dates back to the third round in 2013, but that’s still the reality. So, like with Smith above, the Spaniard can be a shrewd play if you’re in pursuit, but Garcia’s angle is his fit. His form isn’t that bad, either, however. Lee Westwood (+15000) … He hasn’t made much noise since the consecutive runner-up finishes in Florida several months ago, so the more curious matter is if he renews his PGA TOUR membership in 2021-22. The two-time winner paid his dues this season because of the six majors and 50 tournaments. With a normal schedule restored and at age 48, it’s reasonable to assume that this was a one-time return. Remember this wrinkle if you’re in a keeper league. Stewart Cink Lucas Glover Branden Grace Charley Hoffman Marc Leishman Phil Mickelson Ryan Palmer Cameron Tringale Gary Woodland RETURNING TO COMPETITION Garrick Higgo … Opening his Playoffs debut seeded 104th. He withdrew before the final round of the World Golf Championships-FedEx St. Jude Invitational due to an illness. In the interim, he officially qualified as a rookie on the PGA TOUR. Danny Lee … Committed to the Albertsons Boise Open presented by Chevron to open the Korn Ferry Tour Finals. He finished 183rd in the FedExCup but didn’t play after withdrawing during the John Deere Classic, citing an injured back. He later learned that he had a fractured rib. It prevented him from competing in The Open Championship. Seung-Yul Noh … Also in the field in Boise, and he’s also been nursing a rib injury since it forced him out of the Wells Fargo Championship during its second round. No matter what happens at the KFT Finals, the 30-year-old will have 16 starts via a Major Medical Extension to open the 2021-22 PGA TOUR season. NOTABLE WDs Louis Oosthuizen … The 8-seed is resting a sore neck for the second consecutive week. POWER RANKINGS RECAP – Wyndham Championship Power Ranking Golfer Result 1 Webb Simpson T7 2 Sungjae Im T24 3 Jason Kokrak MC 4 Hideki Matsuyama MC 5 Louis Oosthuizen DNP 6 Patrick Reed DNP 7 Brian Harman MC 8 Russell Henley T7 9 Si Woo Kim P2 10 Seamus Power T60 11 Kevin Kisner Win 12 Brandt Snedeker MC 13 Will Zalatoris T29 14 Rory Sabbatini T10 15 Robert MacIntyre T65 Wild Card Rickie Fowler MC SLEEPERS RECAP – Wyndham Championship Golfer (BetMGM prop) Result Austin Cook (Top 20) MC Ryan Moore (Top 10) MC Cameron Percy (Top 20) T37 Scott Piercy (Top 10) T15 Camilo Villegas (Top 20) T46 BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE MEMBERS OF THE PGA TOUR August 17 … none August 18 … Cameron Smith (28) August 19 … Jhonattan Vegas (37) August 20 … Zac Blair (31) August 21 … J.J. Spaun (31) August 22 … none August 23 … none Visit BetMGM.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ years of age or older to wager. CO, IA, IN,MI, NJ, NV,PA, TN, VA or WV only. Excludes Michigan Disassociated Persons. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700 (CO, NV, VA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI), 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ, PA & WV), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), Call or Text the Tennessee REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN), or call 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN).

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Power Rankings: FedExCup PlayoffsPower Rankings: FedExCup Playoffs

The 15th edition of the FedExCup Playoffs to conclude the PGA TOUR season has arrived. There will be math and there will be a test, three of them in fact, but it’s all to determine who is crowned the 2021 FedExCup champion. The format is exactly how it was introduced in 2019 but the last four years have taught a lot in terms of projecting who advances to the TOUR Championship. This annual Power Rankings for the FedExCup Playoffs examines the structure, the recent history and this year’s set of host courses. A projected ranking of 30 to reach the finale gets you started. POWER RANKINGS: FEDEXCUP PLAYOFFS It always seems that just when we’re settling into the latest format of the FedExCup Playoffs, it changes. Sometimes it’s because of the reduction to three tournaments. That’s what happened in 2019. Other times, unfortunately, a pandemic influences the points distribution. Of course, that was last year’s experience when points were merely tripled due to playing time lost midseason. However, a recommitment has been made to quadruple FedExCup points for the first two tournaments of 2021. Last year’s adjustment didn’t alter the course of history, however; that is, in time, it won’t appear as an anomaly. Since the current points structure was implemented in 2017, all top-19 opening seeds advanced two tournaments. In 2017 and 2018, and when points were quadrupled, that meant to the third leg of what was a four-event series. Since 2019, it’s meant a trip to the TOUR Championship. This is why all of this year’s top-19 opening seeds are found in the ranking of 30 above. Baked into that is an acceptance that every FedExCup ranking is different no matter the seeds because points totaled in the Regular Season carry forward into the first two events of the Playoffs. Only THE NORTHERN TRUST that opens the Playoffs will have a 36-hole cut of low 65 and ties. There is no cut in the last two tournaments. And because the opening field of 125 (actually 124 because 8-seed Louis Oosthuizen is resting a sore neck) will be whittled to 70 for the BMW Championship, the series opener is the most volatile. When this slice of 55 debuted in 2019, four seeds outside the opening top 70 advanced. The worst finish among them was recorded by 74-seed Joaquin Niemann, who finished T30 at THE NORTHERN TRUST at Liberty National, also the cite of this year’s edition of the same tournament. Last year, six from outside the top 70 survived, but it took no worse than a T13 (by three golfers) to do it. In fact, 111-seed Charley Hoffman also placed T13, but he rose to just 77th, thus submitting the best finish in the series opener that didn’t propel him forward. Monday’s Power Rankings for THE NORTHERN TRUST presents the usual breakdown of the host course among other information, and there will be stand-alone Power Rankings for the last two tournaments, but no matter who advances to the BMW, he will be competing as a professional for the first time at Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland, so there is no recent history on which to rely. It’ll truly be a neutral field. Caves Valley has hosted a number of marquee events, including the 2002 U.S. Senior Open, the 2005 NCAA Division I Men’s Championship, the 2007 Palmer Cup and the 2017 Bridgestone Senior PLAYERS Championship. The Tom Fazio design will be set up for the BMW as a stock par 72 capable of stretching to 7,542 yards. Like it’s relatively near partner in these Playoffs, Liberty National, Caves Valley also boasts bentgrass greens. The top 30 in the FedExCup standings at the conclusion of the BMW Championship will advance to the TOUR Championship at East Lake in Atlanta. It will challenge familiarly as a par 70 at 7,346 yards with bermuda greens. In 2019, seven golfers who opened the Playoffs outside the top 30 advanced to East Lake. Last year, only two converted. The lowest seed in either edition to survive was Abraham Ancer. As the 67-seed in 2019, he was the runner-up at Liberty National and climbed to eighth for the BMW. By merely reaching the Playoffs finale, the golfers are set with traditional exemptions into the 2022 editions of the Masters, the U.S. Open and The Open Championship among many other invitations if not already equipped. Seeding upon arrival will determine all Starting Strokes, which doubles as the leaderboard position at the beginning of play. The top seed opens at 10-under, the 2-seed at 8-under, and so on. To be clear, the winner of the TOUR Championship will possess the lowest score in relation to par combined with his Starting Strokes. For example, if the top seed, who opens at 10-under, scores 10-under 270 for 72 holes, his total score will be 20-under. Meanwhile, if the 5-seed, who opens at 5-under, scores 14-under 266 for 72 holes, his total score will be 19-under. Last year, although Dustin Johnson opened as the top seed at 10-under, his 72-hole score of 11-under 269 was good for just T3 overall in aggregate scoring, but he prevailed by three strokes in combined scoring because of the opening advantage. The FedExCup champion is credited with official victory, but neither FedExCup points nor official earnings apply to the TOUR Championship. Only the leaderboard with the influence of Starting Strokes and bonus prize money will be applied. The winner at East Lake also secures a five-year TOUR membership exemption (through 2025-26). In the history of the FedExCup, six golfers have won a Playoffs event as the top seed entering the tournament they won. Dustin Johnson was the most recent when he prevailed at the 2020 TOUR Championship. The Playoffs also have been a haven for momentum and piling up victories. On 10 occasions, including twice in 2008, a golfer has won exactly two Playoffs events, including consecutively six times. Rory McIlroy has done it twice (2012, 2016), but he’s one (2012) of four who didn’t win the FedExCup in the series in which he recorded multiple victories. His second of two FedExCup titles occurred in 2019 when Starting Strokes was introduced. Of course, there also are the tough-luck experiences. In 2019, Kevin Tway opened as the 41-seed and posted respective results of T24 and T11, yet finished 31st in the FedExCup. Last year, Brian Harman (69-seed) went T11-T12 to place 37th, Jason Kokrak (90th) went T13-T6 to finish 42nd, and Russell Henley (101st) went T8-T25 to settle at 56th. However, just making it to the Playoffs means that a PGA TOUR member has had a successful season. It also means that his job is secure for the next. ROB BOLTON’S SCHEDULE PGATOUR.COM’s Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton recaps and previews every tournament from numerous angles. Look for his following contributions as scheduled. MONDAY: Power Rankings (THE NORTHERN TRUST) TUESDAY*: Power Rankings (FedExCup Playoffs); Sleepers; Fantasy Insider SUNDAY: Qualifiers, Reshuffle, Rookie Watch * – Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, which also publishes on Tuesday.

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