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The 149th Open Championship, the last major of the season, will be played at Royal St. George’s Golf Club located in Sandwich, Kent, England. The course will play as a par 70, measuring 7,211 yards. The greens will be 40% bentgrass and 60% fescue this week. Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: $2.5M Fantasy Golf Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry] (PGA) STRATEGY Royal St. George’s GC has hosted 14 Open Championships and was the first course outside of Scotland to host the tournament back in 1894. Built on a wild duneland, this course is a proper test of links golf, with partially blind shots and deep bunkering around the course; the fourth hole is reported to have the deepest bunker in championship golf. Situated on the coast, Royal St. George’s GC will be susceptible to inclement weather, even with wind power as benign as 10 mph. The weather can also change at a moment’s notice, so checking the weather report right up until lock is highly advised. Only one player, Greg Norman, was able to record a double-digit winning score of 13-under back in 1993, but scores this and every year will depend on the conditions. This week’s field is somewhat of a moving target, with several players deciding not to play due to travel requirements or other reasons. Sungjae Im and Si Woo Kim have decided to prepare for the Olympics in Tokyo. Hideki Matsuyama, Kevin Na, Matthew Wolff and Cameron Davis have opted not to make the trip, while Bubba Watson, who was in close contact with someone who tested positive for COVID-19, and Zach Johnson, who tested positive for COVID-19, are also not in the field. Links experience is crucial this week. Six out of the past nine winners played at the Irish or Scottish Open, on a links course, the week previous. Also, 13 of the past 14 winners have had a top 10 in an Open Championship before their victory. Still, current form and golfers who are playing well heading into The Open Championship is also worth mentioning. As with all par 70s, par 4 efficiency will be important this week. The top 5 in Strokes Gained: Par 4 coming into this week is Jordan Spieth (+1400, $9,700), Patrick Cantlay (+3500, $8,900), Abraham Ancer (+6500, $ 7,600), Collin Morikawa (+2500, $9,200) and Louis Oosthuizen (+2500, $9,300). Placement Off-the-Tee will help this week but make no mistake, this is a second shot course. The top five golfers in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green over the last 24 rounds are Morikawa, Emiliano Grillo (+20000, $6,700), Daniel Berger (+4500, $7,400), Paul Casey (+3500, $8,600) and Rory McIlroy (+1800, $10,900). GOLFERS TO CONSIDER Brooks Koepka (+1800 to Win, $10,700 on DraftKings) The narrative of playing Brooks at a major needs no explanation at this point. He has three top 5s in his previous four starts with a fourth at the U.S. Open and a runner up at the PGA Championship. With a top 5 in 2019 and a sixth-place finish back in 2017 at Royal Birkdale, Koepka should be an anchor in both cash and GPP lineups this week. Over his previous 24 rounds, Brooks ranks 10th in approach and sixth Off-The-Tee. It should be noted that Brooks’ finishes at the U.S Open at Torrey Pines and the PGA Championship at the Ocean Course were both coastal courses. He also had a seventh-place finish at the RBC Heritage last season at Harbour Town, another coastal track. Paul Casey (+3500 to Win, $8,600 on DraftKings) The Englishman has had stellar finishes in the two previous majors and a win earlier this season at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. Ranked 20th in the world, Casey’s form is just what you want coming into this week. He’s got 16 Open Championship appearances to his name, with a T3 in 2010 as his best finish. Don’t worry about his T54 in 2011 here; focus more on his form, ranking second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over the previous 24 rounds. A top-5 finish at Pebble Beach and the PGA Championship, along with his stellar iron play and tournament experience, make Casey my favorite play this week, especially when the greens are bentgrass (even if it’s only 40%). Branden Grace (+7000 to Win, $7,200 on DraftKings) Another favorite play this week is the smooth-swinging South African. No, not Louis Oosthuizen (+2500, $9,300), but Branden Grace, the 2021 Puerto Rico Open champion. Few have been playing better than Grace, ranking ninth in Strokes Gained: Total over the past 24 rounds and 23rd with his irons over the previous dozen rounds. We know Grace can go low at this tournament, with the lowest Saturday round of 62 at Royal Birkdale in 2017. Grace has a top 20 in 2015 and a sixth-place finish in 2017 at past Open Championships. Another player we should be interested in is Alex Noren (+8000, $7,200), who has been playing fantastic golf recently. A form player, Noren has a top 15 and a top 5 in two of the past three starts, gaining an average of 3.37 strokes Tee-to-Green over that timeframe. Noren also has a spectacular record at this tournament, finishing 11th in 2019 and earning top 10s in 2017 and 2012. Kevin Kisner (+18000 to Win, $6,900 on DraftKings) Since 2015, Kisner ranks 30th in SG: Total at The Open Championship. A top 30 last season and a runner-up finish in 2018 at Carnoustie CC, Kisner has found success across the pond, which is most likely his best chance of winning a major. Hamstrung by his lack of length, Kisner more than makes up for it with his short game, ranking 34th in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and third in putting over the past 24 rounds. He’s missed the cut in all three majors this season, but he’s another player who’s had success on coastal courses. Refer a friend and get $20 DK Dollars! Head to the DraftKings Playbook Promo page for more details! Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: $2.5M Fantasy Golf Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry] (PGA) Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game. All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO), 1-800-BETS OFF(IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN). 21+ (18+ NH). CO/IL/IN/IA/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/MI only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.
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Jon Rahm is on an absolute tear heading into The Open Championship. He’s 44 under par in his last 12 worldwide rounds. He is making birdie-or-better on more than 30% of his holes in that stretch. He’s never been worse than T11 after any round in that span. He not only won his first major championship at the U.S. Open but was one stroke of bad fortune from running away with the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, as well. RELATED LINKS: Twenty First Group | Nine Things to Know: Royal St. George’s Couple that with his past success at links-style golf courses in Europe, and you justifiably have a player who will be at the top of virtually everyone’s lists heading into the 149th Open Championship. Rahm is a two-time winner of the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open, with high finishes dotting his resume on similar courses throughout his young career. “It’s very refreshing when we come to this part of the world and play,” Rahm said last week at the Scottish Open, where he finished seventh. “And I think that’s why I’ve had success.” Twenty First Group analyzed every European Tour event (including The Open Championship) played on coastal courses of the British Isles since 2010, a collection of more than 25,000 rounds. Digging through the results not only articulated how great Rahm has been on links-style courses, but pinpointed some other key performers. Some names were expected. Some might be a bit surprising. Jon Rahm In his career, Rahm has averaged +1.8 Strokes Gained: Total per round on links-style golf courses (as defined in our classification), the best of any player over the last decade with 30 or more rounds played. Rahm’s iron play has been exceptional: in 33 rounds, he’s hit 72.6% of his greens in regulation – 6.6% more than the combined field averages in that span. Rahm has been able to capitalize on his length everywhere in his career, and these types of courses are no different. On links courses, the World No. 2 averages more than 10 yards farther than the field off the tee. It’s led to a direct benefit on par-5s – he’s gained an average of +0.28 strokes per par-5 played, second-best of any player since 2010 with 30 or more rounds under his belt. Since the first Masters was held in 1934, only three players have won their first two professional majors in back-to-back major starts: Craig Wood (1941 Masters, U.S. Open); Bobby Locke (1949 and 1950 Open Championships); and Jordan Speith (2015 Masters, U.S. Open). Rahm will try to join that list this week, as well as become the first player since Tiger Woods in 2000 to win the U.S. Open and The Open Championship in the same season. Rahm also is trying to finish in the top 10 in all four of this year’s majors. In addition to his win at Torrey Pines, he has finished fifth at this year’s Masters and T8 at the PGA Championship. Jordan Spieth He finished one shot out of a playoff at St. Andrews in 2015, then won The Open Championship two years later. Jordan Spieth’s links acumen is obvious, but the numbers paint a fuller picture of how good he’s been after crossing the Atlantic. In 28 rounds, he’s averaged a whopping +2.0 Strokes Gained: Total per round, the best of any player since 2010 with 20 or more rounds played. Spieth’s short game has been especially brilliant: he has scrambled, on average, 10.4% better than his opposition when playing links courses in his career. He’s also averaged more than half-a-putt fewer per round than the competition. This has led to him gaining strokes on the opposition regardless of hole type, doing so on par-3s, par-4s and par-5s. Since 2015, Spieth leads all players at The Open Championship in scoring average (69.6), rounds in the 60s (12) and one-putts (145). Tony Finau Quick. Who was the low American at the 2019 Open at Royal Portrush? It wasn’t Brooks Koepka (T4). It was Finau, who finished alone in third place. Finau is the only player to finish in the top 10 at both the 2018 and 2019 Open Championship. Finau has been good-to-great at virtually everything on links-style golf courses in his career. His driving distance, always a weapon, has given him a 12.6 yard average head start on the field. He’s hit more than 71% of his greens in regulation, a 7.2% increase over the field average. He also scrambles at a clip 8.5% higher than the field and has fewer putts per round than the average player, too. Finau has averaged 1.5 strokes under par per round on links courses, an exceptional clip considering more than half of his sample is coming from The Open Championship. Adam Scott With seven top-25 finishes since 2011, Adam Scott has been one of the most consistent performers this decade at The Open Championship. On links-style courses since 2010, Scott has averaged +1.7 Strokes Gained: Total per round, third-best among players with 40 or more rounds played in that span. Scott has been able to take great advantage of par-5s throughout his career on these courses: on average, Scott gains 0.3 strokes on the field per par-5 played, the highest average of any player in this study with more than 20 rounds. Outdriving the field average by more than 16 yards goes a long way, in turns out. Xander Schauffele Since 2010, there are just six players who have hit at least 5% more greens than the field and scrambled at a clip that is at least 5% better than the competition on European links courses. Two of those players have already been mentioned: Finau and Scott. Another one on that short list is Schauffele, who was the 54-hole co-leader at Carnoustie three years ago before ultimately finishing T2. It’s not an enormous sample size, but Schauffele has been terrific on these types of courses, gaining +1.8 strokes on the field per round. In addition to the scrambling and G.I.R. prowess we mentioned, he also averages more than six-tenths of a putt fewer per round, a number that puts him in the upper-15th percentile in that statistic. Schauffele has played in 17 major championships in his young career, finishing in the top 10 in more than half of them (nine). Since 2017, he is ranked fourth or better in the majors in scoring (70.6), birdies-or-better per round (3.8) and percentage of rounds in the 60s (39.1%). Could Royal St George’s be the site of his breakthrough major win?
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