Mock draft: Arms race begins as teams chase QBsMock draft: Arms race begins as teams chase QBs
The search for a franchise quarterback never ends, and with the draft about two weeks away, we’re forecasting a record number of passers going in Round 1.
The search for a franchise quarterback never ends, and with the draft about two weeks away, we’re forecasting a record number of passers going in Round 1.
On April 13th, 2016, Kobe Bryant scored 60 points on 22-50 shooting in his final NBA game before retirement as the Lakers defeated the Jazz 101-96 at the Staples Center.
As with any advancement, there are skeptics. Especially if this new technology creates added work for an unproven benefit. It can be even harder when college kids, some of whom struggle just to make their bed, are the ones being asked to put in the extra effort. That was what Northwestern golf coach Pat Goss realized during his first foray into advanced statistics for his college team. Teams had been collecting simple stats like fairways hit and greens in regulation for years. Those are of little value, however. Goss was an early adopter of Strokes Gained and knew these new analytics could help his players. But without ShotLink, players needed to record detailed data for every stroke. They needed to pace off their putts, record exact distances and then enter all that data after the round. Guessing wasn’t good enough. And this was when many people didn’t have a good grasp of Strokes Gained or how it could help them perform better. “We were having issues with players keeping stats that were accurate enough,” said Goss, who earned an economics degree from Northwestern. “I had kids who were like, ‘Oh ya, coach wants me to do these stats. That seems like a hassle.’” Then along came Matt Fitzpatrick. He was the No. 1 amateur in the world before setting foot on campus, winning the U.S. Amateur and making the cut in The Open Championship (T44) in the summer preceding his freshman season. “I’ll never forget his first event,” Goss said. “There’s Matt on the first hole of the practice round, putting his alignment stick down in the fairway to calculate the angle from the tee. The very first day of his first tournament, he’s pacing off his putts. He was ahead of the curve.” Fitzpatrick had been keeping his own stats since he was 14. He’s still listed at just 155 pounds in his PGA TOUR profile and he knew numbers could give him an edge to compensate for his distance disadvantage. “He was playing the game like a mature adult,” Goss said. “Just the way he methodically got his ball around the golf course, he was an old golfing soul.” He was following in the footsteps of another undersized Englishman who played at Northwestern, Luke Donald. Donald, who was coached by Goss both in college and after turning pro, was one of the first PGA TOUR players to dive into Strokes Gained. He credits it with helping him reach No. 1 in the world. Fitzpatrick arrives at this week’s RBC Heritage ranked 17th in the world, one spot off his career high, which he reached for the first time after winning the European Tour’s final event of 2020, the DP World Tour Championship. He’s 59th in the FedExCup thanks to six top-25s in 11 starts. He recently had a four-event stretch in February and March where he didn’t finish worse than 11th. Those four weeks featured some of the biggest events of the year: The Genesis Invitational (T5), World Golf Championships-Workday Championship at The Concession (T11), Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (T10) and THE PLAYERS Championship (T9). He’s succeeded with a more balanced approach, ranking in the top 30 of both Strokes Gained: Putting and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Last season, he was second in the former but 81st in the latter. The biggest improvement has come in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, where he’s jumped 101 spots to 37th. “The weaknesses are kind of the same. They don’t really vary much,” he said recently. “It’s more about just chipping away at them and making small gains.” Statistics are still key to Fitzpatrick’s success. And now he’s using another former U.S. Am champ and European Tour winner to help him dig even deeper into the data. Since golf’s pandemic-induced cessation, Fitzpatrick has been using a spreadsheet devised by Edoardo Molinari, the older brother of former Open champion Francesco. Molinari won the U.S. Amateur in 2005, has won three times on the European Tour and played alongside his brother in the 2010 Ryder Cup. He also has an engineering degree from the University of Torino. Molinari began keeping his statistics in an Excel spreadsheet in 2003. It keeps detailed information and can produce reports that tell him how to structure his practice and even where to aim when he’s on the course. His program, which he calls StatisticGolf, captures data that ShotLink does not, such as a player’s intended target. Fitzpatrick can still be seen pacing off shots, yardage book in hand, during tournaments to gather data for the spreadsheet. “(StatisticGolf) has helped me massively because the stuff that we’re recording is very specific to me, it’s very specific to all sorts of things,” he said. “You name it and we’re probably recording it and we’re probably keeping track of it. Wind direction, wind strength, grass type, the greens, speed of greens.” The samples are still too small, but one day it will be able to tell Fitzpatrick things like how he performs – and where he misses — on shots from 150-175 yards where he was trying to hit a fade into a right-to-left wind. He is one of several players on tours across the world relying on Molinari’s spreadsheet. The response was overwhelming when Molinari, who is still playing professional golf, started offering the system to other players. He’d hoped for 10 clients but eventually had to hire someone to help with the workload. Molinari doesn’t like to give specifics about his players’ games but gave two examples to illustrate how his program has helped his clients. One player was struggling to on approach shots to hole locations on the left side of the green. “He had a tendency to be too aggressive to pins and also had a left-miss pattern in his approach play, which is the perfect recipe for disaster,” Molinari said. After the error was revealed, that player finished third in his next event and strung together several top-10s. Another player told Molinari that he likes to curve his tee shots according to the shape of the hole. StatisticGolf showed the player that he was losing strokes when he tried to curve his tee shots in either direction but gaining shots when he tried to hit it straight. His Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee improved from -0.40 to +0.30 after he made the change. Those incremental improvements can be the difference between a player cracking the top 50 in the world ranking or qualifying for the TOUR Championship. With Fitzpatrick, Molinari has found a kindred spirit. “We think very much alike,” Molinari said. “He is very professional, very methodical and he leaves no stone unturned.”
How it works: Each week, our experts from PGATOUR.COM will make their selections in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. Each lineup consists of four starters and two bench players that can be rotated after each round. Adding to the challenge is that every golfer can be used only three times per each of four Segments. The first fantasy golf game to utilize live ShotLink data, PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf allows you to see scores update live during competition. Aside from the experts below, Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton breaks down the field at this year’s RBC Heritage in this week’s edition of the Power Rankings. For more fantasy, check out Rookie Watch, Qualifiers and Reshuffle. THINK YOU’RE BETTER THAN OUR EXPERTS? The PGA TOUR Experts league is once again open to the public. You can play our free fantasy game and see how you measure up against our experts below. Joining the league is simple. Just click here to sign up or log in. Once you create your team, click the “Leagues” tab and search for “PGA TOUR Experts.” After that? Pick your players and start talking smack. Want to represent the fans against our experts? SEASON SEGMENT
Formula One has altered the timings of this weekend’s practice and qualifying sessions at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix out of respect to the funeral service of Prince Philip, which will take place in the U.K. on Saturday.
The TOUR will travel southeast to Hilton Head, South Carolina, for the RBC Heritage this week. Harbour Town Golf Links will play as a par 71, measuring 7,121 yards and be putt on Bermuda greens. The tournament is back in its regular post-Masters spot in the schedule and has 135 golfers in the field at press time. Kiawah Island Golf Resort, the home of the 2021 PGA Championship (May 20-23), is 120 miles up the road. Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $800K Flop Shot [$200K to 1st] STRATEGY This Pete Dye design is not as innocuous as it appears on paper. The course has increased in distance since it was built back in 1969, but it’s still short compared to most other TOUR courses. The fairways are tree-lined, which will cause players to use more irons and driving metals Off-the-Tee to get the ball in the fairways. There’s a higher scrambling percentage than TOUR average and a lower Greens in Regulation hit rate here with the smallest greens on TOUR (approx. 3,700 square feet). The proximity to the coast can also present challenging conditions if inclement weather is in the forecast. The highest distribution of approach shots (approximately 25%) are coming in from 175 to 200 yards out, with players hitting fewer drivers. That said, this isn’t a difficult golf course when the winds are down. Last season, it ranked as the fifth easiest course in scoring relative to par with little to no wind. Golfers striking the ball well won’t find Harbour Town GL tough to navigate, even though it presents some challenges with its design. Eagles are few and far between, but the three par 5s should be reasonably easy to walk away from with a birdie, recording a 40% birdie rate on average across all three. There are also two par 4s under 400 yards, which players will need to score on when given the opportunity. Placement off-the-tee is essential as well as approach, per all Dye courses. Will smaller greens, golfers should also have a decent short game to get it up and down when needed. GOLFERS TO WATCH Daniel Berger (+2000 to Win, $10,000 on DraftKings) His early departure from Augusta National shouldn’t steer you away from him this week, especially with how well he plays on Dye courses. Over the previous 12 rounds, Berger ranks sixth in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green on Dye designs and finished third here last season (in June). His Masters performance wasn’t pretty, but it had much to do with his putting and not his ball-striking, losing 3.03 strokes on the greens. Berger’s irons were solid at Augusta National, gaining a total of 1.74 strokes over Thursday and Friday. He’s also done well at some other coastal courses like Waialae CC and Pebble Beach and already has a win this season. Paul Casey (+2800 to Win, $9,200 on DraftKings) Casey should also be a consideration this week with how well he played at Augusta National, ranking 10th overall in approach. His success on Dye courses should also be evidence to roster him, as he ranks in the top 4 in Strokes Gained: Total over his past 50 rounds. Fatigue may be an issue for the Englishman, but it shouldn’t be enough to take you away from him this week with how well he’s playing this season. Abraham Ancer (+2500 to Win, $8,900 on DraftKings) Few have been better than Ancer on Dye courses recently, with Ancer ranking fourth in total strokes gained over the previous 24 rounds. Unlike Berger, Ancer made the weekend at The Masters, finishing T26 and carding a 2-under on Sunday. His final round last week was impressive, gaining 3.08 stokes with his approach, which is what you want to see heading into this week. Looking further back, Ancer has now gained strokes through approach in his past seven events. Harris English (+5000, $8,400) also looks the part and is someone to really consider after a top 25 at Augusta National last week. His success on coastal courses is undeniable, with wins or top finishes at Kapalua, Waialae CC, Sea Island Resort, Torrey Pines and down in Mexico at the Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship. K.H. Lee (+20000 to Win, $6,600 on DraftKings) Lee is coming off a top 25 at the Valero Texas Open a couple of weeks ago, where he ranked inside the top 10 in approach. He also recorded a 32nd-place finish at The American Express, another Pete Dye design. A top 20 at the Sony Open to start the calendar year is also a good sign that Lee could do well here. Although he’s struggling with the putter, Bermuda greens are by far his preferred surface. Luke List (+15000, $6,900) should also be making the shortlist of golfers to back in this range. List is an unbelievable ball-striker and can get hot on these shorter courses. His success on Dye courses can be found in his top-3 finish here in 2018 and his 21st at The American Express earlier this year. List also ranks 27th in approach over his past 12 rounds on Dye courses. Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $800K Flop Shot [$200K to 1st] Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game. For Masters odds, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DraftKings Sportsbook app. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO), 1-800-BETS OFF(IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN). 21+ (18+ NH). CO/IL/IN/IA/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/MI only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions. I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is reidtfowler) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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