2020 World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship, Round 1 Scoring Conditions: Overall: +1.39 strokes per round Top 10 win probabilities: Rory McIlroy (1, -6, 40.6%) Justin Thomas (T2, -4, 13.9%) Hideki Matsuyama (T8, -2, 4.8%) Louis Oosthuizen (T4, -3, 4.7%) Bubba Watson (T2, -4, 3.4%) Bryson DeChambeau (T4, -3, 3.3%) Tommy Fleetwood (T14, -1, 2.8%) Patrick Reed (T8, -2, 2.6%) Billy Horschel (T4, -3, 2.3%) Jon Rahm (T29, +1, 2.3%) Five largest positive moves in win probability: Rory McIlroy (+26.5%) Justin Thomas (+6.5%) Bubba Watson (+2.4%) Louis Oosthuizen (+2.3%) Bryson DeChambeau (+1.6%) Five largest negative moves in win probability: Jon Rahm (-6.9%) Dustin Johnson (-4.3%) Adam Scott (-3.6%) Xander Schauffele (-3.3%) Webb Simpson (-3.0%) NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of The WGC-Mexico Championship, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.
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