Day: September 21, 2018

NASCAR notebook: Kyle Busch looks for breakthroughNASCAR notebook: Kyle Busch looks for breakthrough

You could make a convincing argument that, with the exception of Kentucky Speedway, Richmond Raceway is Kyle Busch’s best track. After all, he’s the leading winner at the .75-mile venue among active Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series drivers with five victories, and his average finish in 26 starts

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Woods shares lead going into weekend at TOUR ChampionshipWoods shares lead going into weekend at TOUR Championship

ATLANTA — Not even one bad hole could keep Tiger Woods from a share of the 36-hole lead for the first time in more than five years. Woods was on the verge of building a cushion Friday in the TOUR Championship with three birdies in a four-hole stretch, only to make double bogey from the rough and a plugged lie in the bunker that forced him to play away from the hole at No. 16. He finished with a two-putt birdie for a 2-under 68 to tie Justin Rose (67) going into the weekend at East Lake. Woods last shared the 36-hole lead in the 2015 Wyndham Championship. He wound up tied for 10th. Rory McIlroy made enough birdies to offset his mistakes and had a 68. He was two back.

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Stats Report: TOUR Championship, Round 2Stats Report: TOUR Championship, Round 2

After what has been a remarkable comeback season, our model estimates Woods has a 23 percent chance of finally re-entering the winner’s circle on Sunday afternoon. Rose, who had the 2nd highest pre-tournament win probability, has slightly better odds at 27 percent. Of course there is more than one trophy at stake this week as the season-long race for the FedExCup comes to a close. Here are the top-10 FedExCup win probabilities heading into the weekend: Rose is the heavy favorite to win the FedExCup at 63 percent. He began the week in one of the coveted top 5 spots, meaning a win this week will secure the title. In addition, many of the other top contenders have struggled thus far which has boosted Rose’s win probability even more. Hope is not lost for the rest of the field, including co-leader Tiger Woods, who still has a 4.3 percent chance of becoming the FedExCup champion. Bryson Dechambeau, who began the week in pole position (and the best chance to win the FedExCup according to our model) is 6 over par and tied for 27th, leaving him with just a 2.4 percent chance of winning the season-long race. NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of The TOUR Championship, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page. At the halfway point of the TOUR Championship, Justin Rose and Tiger Woods find themselves two strokes clear of the field at 7 under par. Here are the top-10 win probabilities according to our model:

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