Day: August 23, 2017

Billy Payne brought Augusta National out of the past while respecting traditionBilly Payne brought Augusta National out of the past while respecting tradition

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Statistical predictions for the FedExCup PlayoffsStatistical predictions for the FedExCup Playoffs

This month, we are providing predictions for the 2017 FedExCup Playoffs, the four-tournament run that begins this week at THE NORTHERN TRUST. The predictions are probabilistic; using 30,000 simulations from our statistical model, for each player in this week’s field, we calculate their probability of advancing to the Dell Technologies Championship, the BMW Championship, the TOUR Championship, and finally, of being crowned the 2017 FedExCup Champion. Additionally, we provide predictions for this week’s event at Glen Oaks Club. Let’s get right to the predictions. (For those interested, details on our model are provided after the tables). We have taken into account those players who have publicly stated their intentions to not play in certain Playoff events. Here are the relevant probabilities for the 30 players with the highest probability of winning the 2017 FedExCup: The results are pretty interesting. First, the top 3 players (Hideki Matsuyama, Dustin Johnson, and Jordan Spieth) capture the lion’s share of the win probability for the FedExCup (52.1 percent!). This is really high; for context, at a major championship, the top 3 win probabilities would typically add up to about 14-17 percent. Second, while a player’s starting rank is clearly important, there are some players who are further down in the rankings that have fairly high win probabilities (Jason Day, Roryt McIlroy). This is mainly due to the fact that to win the FedExCup, you likely have to win an event along the way (and a player like McIlroy is more likely to do this than some of the players currently ranked above him in the FedExCup). Third, notice that the top 10 players in the current FedExCup rankings are guaranteed a spot in the TOUR Championship. Next, we highlight the players who are near the bubble for advancing to next week’s Dell Technologies Championship. Specifically, here are numbers 83 to 118 in the current FedExCup standings, ordered according to a player’s probability of advancing to next week: Notice that all players ranked 83rd or better in the current standings are guaranteed to advance to next week. According to our model, there are 10-12 spots that are really up for grabs (depending how much of a sure thing you feel 90 percent is). Finally, we have also predicted each player’s probability of winning, finishing in the top 5, finishing in the top 20, and making the cut at THE NORTHERN TRUST. Here are the 25 players with the highest win probabilities this week: To view the full interactive tables for the FedExCup Playoffs predictions, click here and for THE NORTHERN TRUST, click here. Now, a bit about our model and how we simulate a round of golf. If you understand how to simulate a single round, then it’s not a big step to understanding how we simulate the FedExCup. Keeping things as simple as possible, our statistical model can be thought of as proceeding in two steps. First, we assign each player an expected score, based off of various characteristics of the player. For example, two-year scoring average is one input, as is the player’s performance at his previous event (although the former is much more important than the latter). Second, to simulate a round of golf with our model, we add a mean-zero random term to each player’s expected score. So, while Rory McIlroy has a better expected score than most other players, in some simulations he will lose to players who have worse expected scores than him because he got a bad draw of his random term (or the other golfers got very good draws). Additionally, players who are more consistent are given less variation in their random term. We perform many simulations, and from these we can calculate the desired probabilities (ex: McIlroy’s win probability is defined as the fraction of simulations where he was the winner). The full details on our statistical model for predicting PGA TOUR events can be found here. Brothers Matt and Will Courchene grew up in a Canadian household full of golf fanatics. In 2016, they launched a DataGolf blog in hopes of contributing fresh and unbiased insights to the sport. Matt, a PhD student at the Vancouver School of Economics, focuses on applied econometrics and causal inference, while Will, who has a Masters of Economics from the University of Toronto, focuses on statistical modeling and data visualization.

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McIlroy looking to avoid the shutoutMcIlroy looking to avoid the shutout

OLD WESTBURY, N.Y. – Rory McIlroy came close to shutting down his season and eliminating his opportunity this year to become the first player to successfully defend the FedExCup. The dull ache from an inflamed rib joint had left him frustrated and concerned. Rest was an alluring option. More than the nagging pain, though, was a nagging feeling that McIlroy couldn’t shake. For each of the last eight years, he had always managed to win one event. But thus far in 2017, he has been shut out. McIlroy could manage the pain he was feeling. What he couldn’t manage was the disappointment of going through an entire calendar year without raising a trophy. “The real thing for me was I want to win,� McIlroy said Wednesday on the eve of the FedExCup Playoffs opener, THE NORTHERN TRUST. “I want to win at least once before the end of the year. I haven’t not won a tournament since the 2008 season, which was my real rookie season on the European Tour. “Even in 2013 when I struggled, I went down to Australia at the end of the year and I won – and it made the end of the year feel pretty good. I’d like to have that feeling again.� He’s guaranteed at least three more chances in the Playoffs. He begins the week 44th in points, which will safely keep him inside the top 70 players who’ll advance to the third event, the BMW Championship. He still has work to do to move inside the top 30 for the TOUR Championship, which McIlroy won last year in a playoff against Ryan Moore and Kevin Chappell. That’s the last time McIlroy has won. Since then, he’s battled a rib injury for most of 2017, and also took time off to get married. He’s made just 13 starts this season. His game seemed to be coming around after top-5 finishes at the Open Championship and the World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational. But in the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, a course on which he’s won twice, he was not in contention. On that Sunday, he finished the final round unsure of his immediate playing schedule due to the rib problem and what he described then as numbness in his left arm after each round. He amended that description this week to “a dull ache.� “Whenever someone hears numbness, all of a sudden, it’s like, well, that’s nerves and that’s really bad,� McIlroy said. “It wasn’t quite numbness. I didn’t probably describe it the right way.� He returned to Northern Ireland, took a few days off and then met with fitness advisor Steve McGregor. By then, the symptoms had calmed down. McIlroy explained Wednesday that his rib is healthy; the problem area is the joint that attached the rib to the vertebrae. He said the ligament has “become quite lax� and thus the joint frequently moves out of line. The more he adjusts it back in place, the longer it stays inflamed. He called it a never-ending cycle – one he hopes will end after his three-month sabbatical at the end of this year. Besides the FedExCup Playoffs, McIlroy will play the Dunhill Links Championship in October. After that, he plans to put the clubs away for six weeks before resuming practice. His next competitive event won’t be until mid-January. “It’s something that I’m going to have to address,� McIlroy said. “If I manage it over these next few weeks, I can’t do any damage to it. It’s not as if I can do anything that’s not already there. So it’s just about managing it.� As for taking three months off? “I’m excited for it,� he said. “To have three months where I can focus on myself, my health, my game and just improvement – I don’t think I’m ever going to get a chance like this in my career again where I get this opportunity to take three months to re-evaluate things.� Had the pain impacted his playing ability, he would have already ended his season. But he said it does not impact him when he’s inside the ropes. That’s why he’s looking forward to offering a proper defense of his FedExCup title. “I feel like I’m capable of giving myself a chance to win this thing,� McIlroy said. “So if you feel that way and you know you’re not going to do yourself any hard, then I think that was the right decision in the end.� A year ago, he started the FedExCup Playoffs in the 36th position. Like this year, McIlroy had not won on the PGA TOUR in 2016 (although he did win his own Irish Open during that summer). But he won at TPC Boston – next week’s venue for the Dell Technologies Championship – to vault inside the top six and give himself a realistic chance at East Lake. It was an opportunity he converted. It also was a satisfying end to his TOUR season. Perhaps he’ll use the same formula again. “Sometimes with lower expectations, you can come in and the pressure is off a little bit and you can make a run,� McIlroy said. “Feel like you’re more the hunter than the hunted. That’s how I felt last year and I got hot at the right time. “Your win two of the four, you should have a great chance of winning the entire thing. That’s the goal again the next few weeks and hopefully I can do that.�

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