Win probabilities: WGC-HSBC Champions, Round 1

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Stranded in his vast and barren surroundings, the pilot told his young traveling companion, a prince, of his love of the desert. “One sits down on a desert sand dune, sees nothing, hears nothing,� he said. “Yet, through the silence something throbs and gleams.� Clearly, the iconic French author Antoine de Saint-Expuery, writing in his classic novella “The Little Prince,� had a more romantic notion of the desert than did Gary McCord, whose view of the arid Arizona landscape in 1983 left him admittedly less inspired. “I mean, I stood there near a burn, looking out at the only thing I could see, Scottsdale airport, and there was nothing. No matter where I looked, nothing but tumbleweeds,� McCord recalled. He thus returned to PGA TOUR executives who had dispatched him on this scouting mission of their new purchase with this: “You guys are nuts.� Nearly 35 years later, McCord can laugh. “Thankfully, I wasn’t the futuristic leader the TOUR was looking for.� That’s because PGA TOUR officials respectfully brushed aside that blunt assessment by McCord, then a member of the Player Advisory Council. The massive chunk of property in the Scottsdale, Arizona, desert would go forth as the future site of TPC Scottsdale and the annual Phoenix Open. Deane Beman – then the PGA TOUR commissioner with impeccable visionary skills – was convinced there was great promise in this desolate land. In all due respect, Beman did not imagine what TPC Scottsdale has become during the week of the Waste Management Phoenix Open – a veritable magnet for hundreds of thousands of fun-loving people and a multi-million-dollar provider to local charities. Nor did the golf course architects, Tom Weiskopf and the late Jay Moorish, draw up the par-3 16th as it currently presents itself – a hole enclosed by grandstands where fans generate the sort of madness and frivolity that is part college football, part comedy central and part rock concert. “The only credit I can give myself,� Weiskopf said, “is where I located the hole.� So, to whom do we offer thanks for all this entertainment, commotion and uncanny craziness? How about a civic-minded group formed more than 80 years ago – the Thunderbirds. Their care of the Phoenix Open, which dates to 1932, is unequivocal and like the pilot in “The Little Prince,� the desert doesn’t unsettle them. They also feel “the throbs and gleams.� Before it became “the greatest show on grass� and before Padraig Harrington kicked footballs into the crowd and James Hahn brought down the house by dancing Gangnam-style and before Tiger Woods ignited a 5.5 on the Richter scale with his 1997 hole-in-one and McCord’s robot – named “Eldrick� – aced the 16th during the pro-am 19 years later and before the hillside gathering spot gave way to some grandstands that morphed into a dozen or so corporate boxes that transformed into a one-hole stadium enclosed by three stories and 278 suites . . . there was Clarence Rose and total serenity. “I’m guessing there were less than 50 people watching – and that’s including the volunteers,� said Rose, who was the first to play the 16th in competition when the Phoenix Open debuted at TPC Scottsdale. It was the morning of Jan. 22, 1987, “and it was chilly – and quiet,� he said. Then in the sixth year of a PGA TOUR career that stretched from 1982 to 1999, Rose was paired with Johnny Miller and Lon Hinkle and had the honors at 16. All three made par at the 162-yarder and Rose assumes they all hit the green, though it doesn’t matter; there wasn’t any booing back then for missing the green, something that’s a huge part of the levity that envelopes 16 now. Forgettable. That’s pretty much how Rose and others describe the 16th, which was squeezed between a par-5 15th that players loved and a tough but exciting risk-reward par-4 17th. “It was just desert with a few fans,� longtime caddie Jim “Bones� Mackay said. “At 16, you’d have to look through a cloud of dust to find the pin if the wind was left-to-right.� In those early years, there was another view from the 16th tee – if you looked back. “There was a (TGI) Friday’s behind the tee,� said Mark Calcavecchia, who in 1987 made the first of 27 starts at a tournament that was arguably his favorite. “That’s where everybody got their drinks. It was a happening spot, fans got a little rowdy, they’d even boo – but it wasn’t like it is today.� What fans gravitated to at the 16th was a hillside area behind the green, the sort of manufactured viewing spot that Weiskopf and Moorish were instructed to build all over TPC Scottsdale. “Beman’s concept was to eliminate the need to build bleachers,� Weiskopf said. “He said to (give people) mounding to watch from.� Working with land that “was flatter than a pancake,� Weiskopf and Moorish moved tons of desert and gave Beman his “stadium golf course,� with a plethora of great viewing areas. But when it came to the 16th, Weiskopf said the only consideration was “I needed a second par 3 on the back, I wanted it going in an easterly direction, and I intended it to be the shortest of the four par 3s.� He settled on what it still is – a 162-yard shot with four bunkers guarding the green – and while TPC Scottsdale is a very good golf course and holes 15, 17 and 18 provide for a thrilling finishing stretch, no one would ever nominate the 16th as one of golf’s greatest par 3s. And yet, here it is, arguably golf’s wildest and most unique hole. “All it needs is Cirque du Soleil to enclose it and you’d have a Las Vegas act,� McCord said. “I never was consulted, I had no input,� laughed Weiskopf. “It was not my idea to build a stadium around the hole so 15,000 people could make noise.� The 1973 Open champion played in just four Phoenix Opens (1987-89, 1992) before his playing days ended. He didn’t make a cut on his design but played the par-3 16th in 1-under, two birdies against one bogey and five pars. Of course, those appearances came before the grandstands went up three stories and the noise level went even higher, which prompted the question: Known for his competitive fire, would a 1970s Tom Weiskopf have liked today’s 16th hole environment? “I would have tried it one time, but probably not again,� he said, laughing. Ah, but a 75-year-old Weiskopf is mellower and more accepting. He’s quite OK with it and thinks today’s players are, too. “Who benefits? Fans, the (Phoenix, Scottsdale) area, players. There are so many positives,� said Weiskopf. “You have to give credit where credit is due. (The Thunderbirds’) job is to give to charity, and they do.� In other words, Weiskopf only built the hole. The Thunderbirds built the phenomenon. Golf is a game of numbers, right? So here they are for the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale during Waste Management Phoenix Open week: The enclosed stadium goes three stories high in some sections, features 278 suites and 3,700 general-admission seats, all of which accounts for 16,000 fans just at that one hole. How the 16th contributes mightily to a bigger picture is eye-opening stuff – last year, 200,000 fans attended on Saturday alone, more than 600,000 for the week, and $10.1 million was given to charity. “We’re the fourth largest city in Arizona for that day (Saturday, when crowds reach 200,000),� said Jim Frazier, chairman of the 1983 Phoenix Open and longtime executive director of the Thunderbirds. Digest and savor the numbers for a moment. Even long-time members of the Thunderbirds do, with humility. “I don’t think if you asked our members you’d find many who would say, ‘Yeah, I knew it would turn into this,’ � said John Lewis, Thunderbird chairman of the 1995 tournament. “But we’ve discovered the ‘Power of 16.’ � It was a process that did not come without hiccups, a few bumps, and most definitely a sense of dare. After all, from its debut in 1932, the Phoenix Open was a staple at Phoenix Country Club in the downtown area, but if the Thunderbirds wanted to remain caretaker of the event, they needed to go along with Beman’s plan to move to TPC Scottsdale. “We were naked on that deal,� said Frazier. “We didn’t have a sponsor. We put family money into the deal.� Truth is, “we were very comfortable at Phoenix CC.� Michael Kennedy, who served as chairman of the 1994 tournament, reminds people “this move wasn’t done without risk.� Frazier, Lewis, Kennedy and the rest of the Thunderbirds likely would have agreed with McCord, who returned from his scouting mission to see tumbleweeds and told PGA TOUR officials: “How in the world are you going to leave downtown Phoenix where we get 25,000 people a day, everyone’s having a ball, and come out (to Scottsdale)? No one will show up.� But Beman’s vision wasn’t foolhardy; fans did come out, perhaps not in droves right away, though enough to give the Thunderbirds hope. Lewis said Calcavecchia has great recall; there was a TGIF tent behind 16 tee and “fans were drinking way more Long Island Iced Teas than they should have.� It got the Thunderbirds thinking. You know, throbs and gleams. “Around 1992, a couple of us looked at 16 and talked about the possibility of putting (corporate) boxes there,� said Frazier. Like that, 11 were built. “And the fun part was, all 11 sold immediately.� A few more went up in 1993, then in 1994 some grandstands were added to the mix. Then, in Round 3 of the 1997 tournament, something happened that “totally put 16 over the top,� said Calcavecchia. He was on another part of the golf course when he heard thunderous roars. Woods had made his hole-in-one. “There’s never been a scene on a golf course like that one,� said Calcavecchia. “Beer cans came down like it was the Fourth of July,� laughed Frazier. “It was absolutely nuts.� By 2006, it was estimated that the tournament in its 20 years at TPC Scottsdale had had a $175 million economic impact to the community and in 2009 the Thunderbirds introduced the first fully enclosed hole in professional golf. The 16th was officially iconic by now and fans flocked there be the thousands. True, they came for the “adult beverages,� but so, too, did they come to turn the tables on the players and try to entertain them. “They do their homework,� said McCord. “They know each guy’s dog’s name and who their next-door neighbors are. It’s hilarious.� Sometimes, even players can’t help but laugh, like the time Pat Bates, who wore his hair long and flowing, hit a wildly errant shot at 16. “They kept calling him Fabio,� said Calcavecchia. “I admit, I laughed.� But give the Thunderbirds credit. First, because they took on millions in cost to build all these structures, with no guarantee they would realize a return on their investment. And two, they listened when players voiced concerns – like in 2000 when Phil Mickelson was upset with what he heard directed toward David Duval. “I’m going to challenge the Thunderbirds to get rid of the (trouble spots),� said Mickelson. The Thunderbirds found an answer where others may not have looked. “Going up (two and three) decks was a solution,� said Kennedy. Having those fans who flock to 16 seated and not squeezing in behind ropes has helped cut down on the rowdiness, while at the same time enhancing the unique arena atmosphere. It’s hard to argue, because in recent years, players have embraced the 16th with more warmth than ever before. Offering a sentiment that a long line of PGA TOUR members would second, Steve Flesch told reporters several years ago that “if you don’t want to play, don’t come, but I think it’s an awfully cool way to advertise the PGA TOUR, showing people having fun.� Kennedy said he agrees that a guy like Weiskopf and those from his era wouldn’t have understood or accepted this stadium hole. But he loves that today’s young stars such as Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm “are all in on this.� So, too, are other dates on the PGA TOUR schedule. “The energy of our 16th is found in other tournaments today,� Lewis said. “Sponsors want this energy on their courses. They’re not directly copying us, but it’s nice to see and it’s good for golf.�

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