Officialsportsbetting.com Golf Betting Do-or-die FedExCup Playoffs pressure begins at THE NORTHERN TRUSTs

Do-or-die FedExCup Playoffs pressure begins at THE NORTHERN TRUSTs

It was far from a New York minute. More like a New York lifetime – or so it felt for Sean O’Hair last August at Bethpage Black. One thought hung over O’Hair heading into THE NORTHERN TRUST, the first event of the FedExCup Playoffs. “You play good or you go home.â€� Which he accepted, by the way. “I think it’s cool to have a situation where you can have a very average year and then have the chance to make it a very good year if you get hot at the right time,â€� he said. You’re not OK with that? Well, to O’Hair it sounds like pro sports. “Isn’t that what it’s all about in (the team sports). It’s not about your stats or how many games you won during the season, it’s about playing well at the right time. The best team doesn’t always win the World Series (or the Super Bowl). It’s usually the team that gets hot at the right time.â€�   It’s about here where O’Hair should have been told of an exchange between a football writer and New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick just before last year’s playoffs were to begin. “You know, you’re not even that good,â€� the writer suggested to the coach. A shrug, a bit of a pause, but no argument from Belichick. Instead, he offered a slight grin and then this vintage Belichickian. “We only have to be better than the team we’re playing each week.â€� O’Hair chuckled and because he’s a sports fan, he knows the flavor that accompanies a story involving Belichick and the Patriots. Seemingly perfect in 2007, their 18-0 record went up in smoke in the Super Bowl. Seemingly “not even that goodâ€� last year, they were good enough to win the Super Bowl. Go figure. Then again, O’Hair said you can’t. It’s sports and that’s why he loves that the PGA TOUR has the FedExCup playoffs. “The thing that’s interesting is, maybe they’re not the playoffs that we know with the team sports, but they’re as close as golf can get to it,â€� said O’Hair. Certainly, O’Hair’s viewpoint has integrity. He broke onto the PGA TOUR when there weren’t playoffs and he’s experienced it all in 13 years. O’Hair made the TOUR Championship the old way (via the money list, in 2005) and he’s made it twice through the FedExCup playoffs. He’s played two seasons and not qualified for the playoffs. The years when he’s made the playoffs have come in different shapes and sizes. In 2012, O’Hair had had a decent season going and when he finished T-7 at the Greenbrier Classic in early July, he was 45th in the FedExCup standings. No reason to think he couldn’t be penciled in for at least three rounds of post-season stuff, right? Wrong. The opposite of “getting hot at the right timeâ€� is going MC, MC, WD to fall down the standings. When he finished T-54 at THE NORTHERN TRUST (then called The Barclays) and T-64 at the Dell Technologies Championship (then known as the Deutsche Bank Championship), he was outside the top 70 and his season was over. Contrast that to last year. O’Hair entered the playoffs 108th in the standings and knew everything was on the line at Bethpage Black. Offering his “best stuff at the right time,â€� O’Hair finished joint second, one behind Patrick Reed, and piled up enough points to make it all the way to the TOUR Championship. While it wasn’t quite the Giants beating the 18-0 Patriots, O’Hair is OK with being held up as an example that these FedExCup Playoffs do deliver the sort of unpredictable drama that we’ve become accustomed to elsewhere on the landscape. “Listen, no one would say that Dustin’s (Johnson) season didn’t blow away Rory’s (McIlroy) season away last year,â€� said O’Hair. “It was Dustin’s FedExCup to lose – and he lost it. It was Rory’s to capitalize on – and he did. I think that makes for great TV.â€� Years ago, Padraig Harrington endorsed what is at the heart of the FedExCup Playoffs – trimming the fields, from 125 to 100 to 70 to 30. “I think you need to have people missing out. I think that’s what’s missing at times,â€� he said. “We need to have players get knocked out. That’s what happens in a playoff.â€� It explains why plenty of players feel the pressure just to advance. William McGirt, for instance. When he was a PGA TOUR rookie in 2011, McGirt entered the playoffs No. 125. For the first time all year, if he wanted to play the next week, McGirt knew he had to earn it, that he couldn’t simply commit. That afforded him a sense of playoff pressure which was only amplified late in the third and final round. (Hurricane Irene was bearing down, thus the first event had been shortened to 54 holes.) Sarah McGirt was encouraged by Caroline Harrington, whose husband, Padraig, was paired with McGirt, who told William he stood, according to the projections. “One-oh-one,â€� she flashed. Translation: With two holes left in his tournament, McGirt was not projected inside the top 100 to get to the next week. Do-or-die time, and McGirt did. He stiffed a 7-iron at the 17th hole, made birdie, finished T-24, and jumped inside the top hundred. Was he excited? “Heck yeah, man,â€� said McGirt. “It’s the playoffs. There’s still a chance.â€� Heath Slocum had proved that two years earlier. Coming into first playoff event 124th in the FedExCup standings, Slocum won at Liberty National, a prime example of playing great at the right time. In 2014, Billy Horschel was 69th to start the FedExCup playoffs, then spiraled to 82nd when he missed the cut in New York. You would have gotten incredible odds against him winning the FedExCup, yet from there he went on an uncanny run – second in Boston, first at the BMW Championship, then at the TOUR Championship. Vintage playoffs. Sometimes you get Kentucky-Kansas (2012), other times you get a surprise like UConn-Butler (2011). For those times like 2012 and 2014 when McIlroy stumbled as the favorite, you get 2016 when the Northern Irishman rose to the occasion as the underdog. Every week starting at THE NORTHERN TRUST, there will be a sense of pressure, a do-or-die mentality for FedExCup Playoffs qualifiers. At the heart of their approach is something Adam Scott said a few years ago:

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Power Rankings: CIMB ClassicPower Rankings: CIMB Classic

It was nice of Brendan Steele to successfully defend his title at the Safeway Open so that we could seamlessly segue into the next two-time defending champ. That’s the badge of honor worn by Justin Thomas at the CIMB Classic. He was the first of four winners last season who defended his title. Oddly enough, his pair of victories at TPC Kuala Lumpur followed Ryan Moore’s consecutive wins to introduce the stock par 72 in Malaysia’s capital in 2014 and 2015. The CIMB Classic launches a three-week swing through Asia. From Malaysia to South Korea to China, each tournament is reserved for 78 golfers. None will feature a 36-hole cut. All he does is win the CIMB Classic at TPC Kuala Lumpur. The 2016-17 Player of the Year finished second in his last start at East Lake. Two wins in last two months, too. Will need to putt a little better to win this week, but he finished T3 here in 2015 and sat T9 through 54 holes last year. Simply thriving at the peak of his career. Presents as an obvious force but it didn’t pan out that way in any of his first three appearances. Still in pursuit of his first top 20 here, but has five top fives since late June. With rigors of the past several weeks now history, he can enjoy the embrace of a gettable track. Solo fifth and runner-up in last two editions; scoring average of 66.75. One of the many who struggled on Sunday at Silverado, but early form aligned with prior success there. Similarly strong at TPC Kuala Lumpur where his scoring average is 68.08 Four months ago, he was outside the OWGR’s top 350. With two wins, including in last start at East Lake, and the Rookie of the Year award in the interim, he’s now 32nd. Shed the rust in a hurry at Silverado, placing T17 and ranking fifth in strokes gained: putting. T7 (2015) and T10 (2016) with a scoring average of 68.00 at TPC Kuala Lumpur. Debuted as a PGA TOUR member at last year’s CIMB and finished T10. One of the world’s best putters in the midst of his career prime at 33 years of age. Straddled seasons with a T12 at Conway Farms and a T13 at Silverado. Seven top 25s in last four months. He can hang on shorter tracks like TPC Kuala Lumpur. In the stable of horses for the course with a solo sixth in 2015 and a solo ninth last year. Scoring average in his last 10 rounds here (going back to 2014) is 68.00. Placed T17 in debut here last year. Ranked 15th in putts per GIR during a steady week. T11 at the British Masters in his last start. Six top 25s in last eight starts worldwide. The two-time runner-up (to Ryan Moore both times) hasn’t missed an edition at TPC Kuala Lumpur. Strengths are hitting GIR (11th in 2016-17) and par-5 scoring (T24). Turned in a T19 as a first-timer here last year with a pair of 68s on the weekend. Steady, reliable attack is always a threat, particularly with the guarantee of 72 holes. Seems counterintuitive to endorse him in a putting contest, but he was comfortable last year. Finished sixth after sharing the 18-hole lead with a 64. Making his tournament debut and his first start as a PGA TOUR member. Seriously scuffled since a solo fourth at Firestone, his last start in an event with no cut. RANK PLAYER COMMENT POWER RANKINGS: CIMB CLASSIC Jason Dufner, Branden Grace, Adam Hadwin and Bud Cauley will be among the notables included in Tuesday’s Fantasy Insider. There’s no secret to the objective at TPC Kuala Lumpur: sink putts. ShotLink isn’t utilized overseas, but fancy formulas aren’t required to respect Thomas’ route to success. En route to hoisting the hardware both times, he led his fields in conversion percentage after hitting greens in regulation. He also ranked a respective first and fourth in fewest putts per GIR. Moore authored similar performances, but TPC Kuala Lumpur wasn’t yet the racetrack that Thomas looped in 26-under 262 in 2015 and 23-under 265 last year. (Moore scored 14-under 274 in 2013 and 17-under 271 in 2014.) With four par 5s and tipping at just 7,005 yards, it’s one of the most vulnerable courses on the docket. Last year’s field averaged 70.298, and that was over one-half stroke higher than the previous year. Phenomenally manicured paspalum putting surfaces cater to the highest level of confidence when chasing deeply red numbers. With them running at about 11 feet on the Stimpmeter, everyone can open the throttle. The Confidence Factor on Tuesday will expand on the analytics as well as spotlight which golfers in the field have fared well in previous visits. Customarily warm and humid conditions await. The strongest risks of inclement weather bookend the tournaments. The absence of impactful wind will further contribute to low scoring. ROB BOLTON’S WRITING SCHEDULE PGATOUR.COM’s Fantasy Columnist Rob Bolton will be filing his usual staples leading up to this week’s event. Look for the following columns this week. MONDAY: Rookie Ranking, Qualifiers, Reshuffle, Medical Extensions, Power Rankings TUESDAY*: Sleepers, The Confidence Factor, Fantasy Insider WEDNESDAY: One & Done THURSDAY: Ownership Percentages in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf and One & Done presented by SERVPRO * – Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO, which also publishes on Tuesdays.

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