Day: March 12, 2019

Horses for Courses: THE PLAYERS ChampionshipHorses for Courses: THE PLAYERS Championship

The hot, humid days of May have shifted to the relatively cool, damp days of March in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, as the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass hosts the top 50 players in both the FedExCup standings and the OWGR for the 46th edition. Pete Dye’s masterpiece (Par 72, 7,189) has stood the test of time and was originally designed for play in March. With multiple different doglegs, visual tricks and no two consecutive holes playing the same direction, multiple decisions and multiple shot shapes will be on display. The major differences will be not navigating Bermuda rough and greens that are not crispy from the lack of heat this time of year. Manageable rough and softer conditions this week might make March more palatable, but the winner ($2.25 million; 600 FedExCup points) of the $12.5 million purse will need every club in their bag plus the six inches between their ears to lift the new trophy. Need more Course Info? Check Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings, The First Look and Course Preview. Recent Winners Webb Simpson (2018). Justin Thomas remarked that we would never see TPC Sawgrass play as easy as it did on Sunday (70.014) of last year. Simpson destroyed too many records to list as he led the field in fairways, Strokes-Gained: Putting and Par-4 and Par-5 scoring while winning comfortably (73 on Sunday) by four shots. Notables: Brooks Koepka closed with 63, the lowest final round in history to cash T11; Xander Schauffele continued his role a quick study as he cashed T2 in his first appearance; Simpson was last in driving distance and went co-wire-to-wire as he shared only the first round lead. Si Woo Kim (2017): The youngest winner ever at 21, the South Korean debuted in 2016 (T23) and spent his weekend scrambling for pars (T1) and avoiding bogeys (T1). He posted 10-under, including 69 in Round 4, to win by three in hot, blustery conditions.  There were just seven rounds in the 60’s on Sunday. Notables:  54-hole leaders J.B. Holmes (84) and Kyle Stanley (75) never factored; Kim was bogey-free in the final round as he beat Louis Oosthuizen (T2) heads-up by three; Like Kim, Rafa Cabrera Bello made his second start and cashed T4. Jason Day (2016): Picked up his second win of the season in wire-to-wire fashion (API) to go along with his WGC-Dell Match Play victory. Gamers will remember his victory at Match Play as he injured his back and couldn’t pick the ball out of the hole. Day opened with 63 and never looked back as he won by four. Notables: Thomas fired 65 in the final round (T3) in his second start; Colt Knost posted 63 in Round 2 and shared T3 with Thomas and Ken Duke proving this course can be played by short, straight hitters. Day led the field in scrambling, bogey avoidance and Par-4 scoring while finishing T51 in fairways hit. Key stat leaders Golfers inside the top 25-ish in each statistic on the 2018-19 PGA TOUR are listed only if they are scheduled to compete this week. This is the 20th event of the season. * – Finished inside the top 10 since 2010 Strokes-Gained: Tee to Green  1  *Rory McIlroy  2  *Justin Thomas  3  *Hideki Matsuyama (20 under par in four starts before MC last year)  4  Byeong-Hun An  5  Dustin Johnson  6  Gary Woodland (best T11, 2014)  7  Patrick Cantlay  8  Jason Kokrak (6 trips, 1 weekend)  9  *Tommy Fleetwood (T7 ’18, T41 ’17) 10 Matthew Fitzpatrick 11 Luke List 12 *Paul Casey (first time, 2004, none in 10 other trips) 13 *Xander Schauffele 15 Keith Mitchell (coming in HOT) 16 Lucas Glover (T6 ’17, 3 2010) 18 Sungjae Im (maiden; rookie) 19 Corey Conners (maiden) 20 Talor Gooch (maiden) 21 Jon Rahm (T63, T72) 22 *Webb Simpson 22 *Ian Poulter (T2, 2017) 24 *Matt Kuchar (2012 winner) 25 Bubba Watson (T37 best in 11 trips) Strokes-Gained: Putting  1  Dominic Bozzelli  2  Brian Gay  4  Andrew Putnam  6  *Rafa Cabrera Bello (T4 ’18, T17 ’17)  7  Scott Langley  8  *Rickie Fowler  9  Dustin Johnson 10 Patton Kizzire 11 *Jason Day 12 *Brandt Snedeker 13 *Xander Schauffele 14 Patrick Reed 16 Wyndham Clark (maiden) 17 Charles Howell III (16 events, T17 ’18 is his best) 18 *Adam Scott 19 *Francesco Molinari 20 Billy Horschel 21 Cameron Smith (MC, MC) 22 Denny McCarthy (maiden) 23 Vaughn Taylor 24 *Si Woo Kim 26 Kiradech Aphibarnrat Bogey Avoidance  1  *Lucas Glover  2  Charles Howell III  3  Dustin Johnson  4  Patrick Cantlay  5  *Matt Kuchar (2012 winner)  6  *Webb Simpson  7  *Xander Schauffele  7  Kevin Tway  9  *Jim Furyk 10 *Aaron Baddeley 13 *Marc Leishman (one top 10 in 9 starts) 15 *Harold Varner III 16 *Kevin Kisner (P2 on debut in ’15 is only top 50 result) 17 Talor Gooch 18 *Justin Rose 20 Troy Merritt 21 *Justin Thomas 21 Andrew Putnam 23 Abraham Ancer (maiden) 24 *Rory McIlroy 25 *Jhonattan Vegas Levels of Confidence Premium Veterans Tiger Woods is the only player to win in March (2001) and May (2013) and has only missed once in 18 tries. He’s also the only multiple winner in the field. Rested and raring to go, he’ll look to improve his T11 from last year, his first start since 2015. Another veteran who has played both sides is Sergio Garcia. The 2008 champ was second in 2007, T4 in 2002 and has cashed in 17 of 19 appearances. He’s quietly racked up T9 and T6 in his last two on TOUR. At age 23 in 2004 Adam Scott became the youngest winner after Fred Funk became the oldest winner in 48 the year before. He backed up his win with T8 and added T6 in the first May edition. Since 2012 he’s played the event under-par and has finished outside T19 exactly once. Last week’s winner Francesco Molinari will look to join Woods (2001) as the only players this century to win THE PLAYERS the week after winning on TOUR. Woods also used the Arnold Palmer Invitation as his springboard that season and interestingly enough, Day won his trophy after claiming the API earlier in the year in 2016. Form Over Function    The foot of Rory McIlroy has to be sore from trying to kick open the door to victory this year as his streak of top-10 finishes is now at five. His run of T8, T6, T8 and T12 from 2013-16 cooled with T35 in ’17 and MC last year. It’s shocking that Dustin Johnson has never hit the top 10 here in 10 trips. It’s also not shocking he’s won twice worldwide in 2019 including his last time out at WGC-Mexico Championships. His two best paydays are the last two years (T17 ’18, T12 ’17). With three top-25 cashes, including T3 and T11, I’ll suggest Justin Thomas is comfortable around these parts. I’m trying to think where he’s not comfortable … The last time Brooks Koepka was at TPC Sawgrass he set the Sunday scoring record (63) that included an albatross. His check for T11 was his third-consecutive pay INCREASE at THE PLAYERS. Caution The last time we saw Jason Day he WD after six holes on Thursday at Bay Hill. He claims his injury has been blown out of proportion. His three top-10 paydays in the last eight years will gather eyeballs again this week. Justin Rose has only one top-10 payday from 15 tries but he’s also won this season at a difficult Torrey Pines. After finishing T2 in 2012 and winning in 2015, Rickie Fowler looked like an annual “save” for this event. Since his win he’s left early twice and cashed T60. With only two cuts made in five trips I’m not sure if I’m running Jordan Spieth to the front of the line this week. I don’t believe this is the track or event to get healthy or bust a slump. The mystery that is Phil Mickelson continues to taunt gamers as he’s done nothing since his win at Pebble Beach. He’s MC in six of his last seven here with the best result being T41.

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What to watch for: TV viewer’s guide to TPC Sawgrass in MarchWhat to watch for: TV viewer’s guide to TPC Sawgrass in March

The move from May makes all the difference with southern grasses and means the championship will be played on overseeded ryegrass rather than on indigenous Bermuda grass – the prevailing playing surface when the event was played from 2007-2018. The emerald green course looks lusher than the previous Bermuda grass and entails more consistent density throughout the course. The rough cut at 2 ½ inches isn’t overly punitive, but the combination of wet weather and the need to keep the ryegrass watered means the course will be lusher, softer and more forgiving than before.

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The Chosen One at THE PLAYERS ChampionshipThe Chosen One at THE PLAYERS Championship

PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. — You claim you expected the Webb Simpson dominance last season. And you totally saw Jason Day overcoming a poor record on TPC Sawgrass a few years earlier.  You even saw the likes of Si Woo Kim and Craig Perks coming from the clouds.  Yeah … right. One of the many reasons THE PLAYERS Championship is such an amazing event is that it doesn’t necessarily give a particular type of player an advantage.  That makes it wildly unpredictable and great theatre.  You need to be on in every facet of the game. Bomb and gouge efforts do not always work at TPC Sawgrass.  But never fear. If you are looking for a great tip on the winner, we have it all worked out for you.  Forget our usually impeccable Power Rankings. The only way to find out who will get their hands on the sensational new PLAYERS Championship trophy is to eliminate those who history says cannot win.  This elite field of 144 players can be whittled down to just one using data from the 45 previous winners and a variety of categories that are essentially designed to give you a can’t miss prospect. Okay, it might be a little subjective. And a fair bit random. And perhaps not perfect. But then again … it might just be pure genius.  1. Winning twice at TPC Sawgrass? Not likely any more. While five players have won twice at the iconic venue only Tiger Woods has done so inside the last 25 years. So recent champions are out. Eliminated: Webb Simpson, Si Woo Kim, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Martin Kaymer, Tiger Woods, Matt Kuchar, Henrik Stenson, Sergio Garcia, Phil Mickelson, Adam Scott. 2. Just three players (Jack Nicklaus in the inaugural event in 1974, Hal Sutton in 2000 and Craig Perks in 2002) have won in their first start at THE PLAYERS, so rule out all first-timers. Eliminated: Abraham Ancer, Lucas Bjerregaard, Bronson Burgoon, Cameron Champ, Joel Dahmen, Tyler Duncan, Sungjae Im, Adam Long, Denny McCarthy, Eddie Pepperell, J.T. Poston, Seamus Power, Andrew Putnam, Sam Ryder, Sam Saunders, Martin Trainer, Peter Uihlein, Matt Wallace, Aaron Wise, Wyndham Clark. 3. Scotsman Sandy Lyle (1987) is the only player from Great Britain and/or Ireland to win THE PLAYERS. Clearly a curse exists.  Eliminated: Paul Casey, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Russell Knox, Martin Laird, Rory McIlroy, Ian Poulter, Justin Rose, Shane Lowry, Danny Willett, Matthew Fitzpatrick. 4. Just one of the last 15 champions (Si Woo Kim) at THE PLAYERS came into the event with a negative mark in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green on the season. This wipes out a healthy chunk. Eliminated: Brian Harman, Ollie Schniederjans, Brian Gay, Jason Dufner, Grayson Murray, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Stewart Cink, Dominic Bozzelli, Anirban Lahiri, Alex Noren, Scott Langley, Brice Garnett, Kyle Stanley, Daniel Berger, Beau Hossler, Satoshi Kodaira, Ryan Armour, Rory Sabbatini, Harris English, Michael Kim, C.T. Pan, Nick Taylor, Scott Brown, Troy Merritt, Brandt Snedeker, Andrew Landry, Ryan Blaum, Richy Werenski, Adam Hadwin, Charley Hoffman, Alex Cejka, Brendan Steele, Patrick Reed, Billy Horschel, Jimmy Walker, Aaron Baddeley, Ted Potter Jr., Kevin Streelman. 5. THE PLAYERS hasn’t historically been kind to the old-timers. Just six of 45 winners were in their 40s. Unlikely to get a veteran reclaim past glories here.  Eliminated: Jim Furyk, Zach Johnson, Ryan Palmer, Scott Piercy, Vijay Singh, Vaughn Taylor, Bubba Watson. 6. Just two winners (Craig Perks and Tim Clark in 2010) have made THE PLAYERS their first TOUR win. So rule out all players who are still seeking their first TOUR wins. Eliminated: Byeong An, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Bud Cauley, Corey Conners, Talor Gooch, Brandon Harkins, Tom Hoge, Sung Kang, Jason Kokrak, Kelly Kraft, Haotong Li, Luke List, Trey Mullinax, Thorbjorn Olesen, Patrick Rodgers, J.J. Spaun, Harold Varner III 7. Prior form at TPC Sawgrass counts. 21 of the last 27 champions had at least one top-15 finish at THE PLAYERS before they went on to win the event. This includes 12 of the last 14 winners.  Eliminated: Patrick Cantlay, Austin Cook, Bryson DeChambeau, Tony Finau, Branden Grace, Russell Henley, Charles Howell III, John Huh, Patton Kizzire, Keith Mitchell, Ryan Moore, Jon Rahm, Chez Reavie, Cameron Smith, Scott Stallings, Brian Stuard, Michael Thompson, Kevin Tway. 8. Four of the last six winners of THE PLAYERS had previously won a major. That trend looks to continue.  Eliminated: Emiliano Grillo, Chesson Hadley, J.B. Holmes, Chris Kirk, Kevin Kisner, Danny Lee, Marc Leishman, Hideki Matsuyama, Kevin Na, Xander Schauffele, Jhonattan Vegas, Nick Watney, Gary Woodland.  9. Each of the last 16 PLAYERS winners entered that week’s tournament ranked among the top 75 golfers in the world. Not since 2002, when Craig Perks won THE PLAYERS as the world’s 256th-ranked golfer, has someone outside the top 75 won at TPC Sawgrass. Eliminated: Charl Schwatzel 10. Of the last 25 PLAYERS champions, only three of them ranked outside the top 100 on TOUR in scoring average leading into the event.  Eliminated: Jordan Spieth 11. Amazingly, 13 of the last 15 winners had felt the sting of TPC Sawgrass prior to their win, posting a round of 76 or higher. It helps to have felt that pain. (Five of them had scores above 80!) Eliminated: Justin Thomas 12. While our resident fantasy guru Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings are usually eerily accurate, his strike rate at THE PLAYERS is not as good. Since starting in 2010 only three of the nine winners were inside his top 10 leading into the tournament. Sorry Rob, we don’t trust you this week! Eliminated: Lucas Glover 13. Just three winners have won the previous week before THE PLAYERS, so rule out last Sunday’s Arnold Palmer Invitational Presented by Mastercard champion.  Eliminated: Francesco Molinari 14. Seven of the last eight PLAYERS Champions had a season prior to winning where they won at least $4.5 million.  Eliminated: Keegan Bradley, Louis Oosthuizen 15. Just four times out of 32 since the introduction of the official world rankings has the man at No.1 won THE PLAYERS. Two of those times was by Tiger Woods. That’s just a 12.5percent strike rate. Eliminated: Dustin Johnson That leaves us with just one player left. The chosen one. The player who avoids all 15 of our carefully researched categories. As such we can anoint him now. The 2019 PLAYERS Champion just happens to be a guy who is the current PGA TOUR Player of the Year. A guy who won two majors last year. A guy who shot the course record at TPC Sawgrass last year… Brooks Koepka.

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Fantasy Insider: THE PLAYERS ChampionshipFantasy Insider: THE PLAYERS Championship

My Power Rankings includes the entire field, so this week’s Fantasy Insider column is abridged. It doesn’t mean that you can stop reading – there’s considerable intel awaiting below. It means only that you won’t have to read for as long. If host courses could be rostered in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, then TPC Sawgrass would be pushed in 100 percent of the lineups submitted for THE PLAYERS Championship. Let’s face it, no one ever solves TPC Sawgrass, the winner survives it. Toss out your conventional approach for a sixsome heavy in international talent that doesn’t play enough to force you into rationing starts. While the fantasy game rewards cuts made, THE PLAYERS is the first of 11 tournaments of Segment 3, so you’ll want your usual targets at too many sites to spread the three starts per golfer that you get. PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf My roster for THE PLAYERS Championship (in alphabetical order): Rafa Cabrera Bello Sergio Garcia Francesco Molinari Ian Poulter Henrik Stenson Justin Thomas You’ll find my starters in Expert Picks. Others to consider for each category (in alphabetical order): Scoring: Bryson DeChambeau; Tony Finau; Rickie Fowler; Tyrrell Hatton; Si Woo Kim; Matt Kuchar; Marc Leishman; Rory McIlroy; Justin Rose; Xander Schauffele; Gary Woodland Driving: Keegan Bradley; Paul Casey; Bryson DeChambeau; Tommy Fleetwood; Lucas Glover; Emiliano Grillo; Charles Howell III; Jason Kokrak; Matt Kuchar; Louis Oosthuizen; Justin Rose; Gary Woodland Returning to Competition Jason Day and Tiger Woods … The annular tear in the L4-L5 disc of Day’s back is the reason he slotted way down at No. 20 in my Power Rankings. In fact, he and Woods (neck strain) could have shared the Wild Card badge this week. Peter Uihlein … He’s withdrawn during two of his last four starts, the latter at PGA National as a result of a sore back. The 29-year-old has battled a myriad of injuries for years, so since he’s a first-timer at TPC Sawgrass, you have even more reason to let him go it alone. Troy Merritt … This qualifies as a surprise, and a pleasant one at that. He’s back a month before he anticipated. On Jan. 16, he had surgery to remove a rib on his left side to alleviate complications caused by Thoracic outlet syndrome, not the least of which was the potential for another blood clot. (He had one removed last August.) At 92nd in the FedExCup, for his owners who waited it out, he’s like a midseason pickup that didn’t cost anything. Talor Gooch … As noted below, he was one of my Sleepers at Bay Hill, but he exited before his first round with a sore thumb. The 27-year-old is making his PLAYERS debut, so expectations are low this time around. Notable WDs Pat Perez … Shared on Instagram on Monday that he injured his left Achilles. He didn’t go into detail. This is already his second injury of 2019. A sore thumb forced him out of the Desert Classic during the third round. Currently 86th in FedExCup points but the 43-year-old might be facing extended time off. Hang onto him until more is known about his condition. Kevin Chappell … The 32-year-old remains on a long-term mend after having a microdiscectomy in late November. He started chipping a couple of weeks ago and he hasn’t established a timeline for a return, at least publicly. Even if he does in coming weeks, gamers have to expect him to out for many more months. Others both younger and older who have undergone the same procedure have missed considerable playing time. If he’s not a free agent in your league, he should be even though he’s 146th in the FedExCup standings after a sporty 3-for-3 start in the fall. William McGirt … He’s sat out all season after having surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left hip and femoroacetabular impingement. He hasn’t set a timeline to resume live action, but he must be doing OK given he was excited to share on March 4 that he recorded his first-ever albatross (in the Seminole Member-Pro). Jamie Lovemark … Revealed a partial tear in the labrum in his left shoulder. Had targeted Bay Hill to return, but his time off will eclipse two months next week. Sits 172nd in FedExCup points. Sean O’Hair … Hasn’t competed since withdrawing during the first round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am for an undisclosed reason. Had finished T9 at the Desert Classic just three weeks prior. He’s 157th in the FedExCup standings. James Hahn … He was a late scratch at the Genesis Open due to an elbow injury. Currently 169th in FedExCup points and without a top 25 in 13 months. Whee Kim … No explanation has been released for his decision, but he’s just 1-for-9 since The RSM Classic with a T71 in Puerto Rico. His mid-tournament WD at Riviera was a result of him choosing not to finish his second round on Saturday morning after it was suspended on Friday because he wasn’t going to make the cut. He’s proven to be a threat to pop without notice, but he’s unownable in full-season formats. Power Rankings Recap – Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard Power Ranking Golfer Result 1 Rory McIlroy T6 2 Justin Rose T63 3 Rickie Fowler T40 4 Jason Day WD 5 Brooks Koepka MC 6 Marc Leishman T23 7 Bryson DeChambeau T46 8 Ian Poulter T23 9 Lucas Glover T10 10 Hideki Matsuyama T33 11 Francesco Molinari Win 12 Patrick Reed T50 13 Charles Howell III T15 14 Tommy Fleetwood T3 15 Michael Thompson MC Wild Card Billy Horschel T50 Sleepers Recap – Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard Golfer Result Brian Gay MC Talor Gooch DNP Nate Lashley MC Luke List T10 J.T. Poston T66 Birthdays among active golfers on the PGA TOUR March 12 … none March 13 … Austin Cook (28) March 14 … none March 15 … none March 16 … Bud Cauley (29); Beau Hossler (24) March 17 … Aaron Baddeley (38); Patrick Cantlay (27) March 18 … none

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